Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 140814
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
314 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN MT
WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY. WAVE AND MAIN THERMAL
SUPPORT ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WILL JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO NUDGE DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. THIS OF
COURSE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SEEMS CERTAIN TO PASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. IT MAY BE FAIRLY NARROW...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK...HAVE MAXIMIZED POPS AT BARELY INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SIOUX FALLS. COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE TAME
AREA OF A TENTH OR TWO MAX. EXPECT LATER ON TODAY WE WILL BE ABLE TO
GET MORE FINE TUNED ON POPS AND KICK THE MAXIMUM THREAT UP MORE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH THE COOLER READINGS
NORTHWEST AND THE WARMER SOUTHEAST. WITH BOTH THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND
REAL INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA...THUNDERS SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE PICTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN COULD STILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST IOWA ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM EXITS. BEHIND THE WAVE RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NOT TOO BREEZY OF
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
HOWEVER...ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE A QUICK MOVING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT WIND AND DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY 40 TO 45
DEGREES.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS. NO THREAT FOR RAINFALL
EITHER DAY.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE FROM THE MODELS...BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW END POPS AS TIMING REMAINS AN ISSUE THAT WILL NOT BE RESOLVED
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
1055 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW...BUT ONLY EXPECTING
A FEW SPRINKLES OR MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER AT MOST THROUGH
0Z. AFTER 0Z...WILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CLOUD COVER AFTER 03Z SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHENARD



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