133
FXUS64 KFWD 130852
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/Through Tuesday/

A relative lull in convective activity exists following the
eastward departure of showers and thunderstorms to end the
weekend. One last opportunity for convection will occur late this
morning into the afternoon mainly across parts of East and
Central Texas as the system`s trailing weak cold front moves
through. Until then, a mild and muggy morning is in store with
widespread low stratus and perhaps areas of fog set to develop
through daybreak. Some dense fog is not out of the question, and
the necessity of a Dense Fog Advisory will be monitored overnight.

Later this morning after sunrise, trailing shortwave energy
responsible for ongoing convection in western Oklahoma could allow
for elevated shower and thunderstorm activity to clip portions of
North Texas. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will slowly
push into North Texas, offering an additional source of ascent.
Despite these lifting mechanisms and exceptional prefrontal
instability, a subsidence inversion may keep most of the forecast
area too capped to achieve renewed deep convection later in the
day along this boundary. Lackluster convergence along the front
due to the presence of a vague prefrontal trough feature and
attendant veering westerly flow will also mitigate ascent
strength, making convective initiation in the presence of even
weak capping less likely. Overall, PoPs have been reduced from
previous forecasts, as prospects for late morning/afternoon
convection appear lower than previously advertised. That being
said, any isolated storm that may manage to develop could quickly
become severe in the presence of strong instability with hail/wind
threats. Since low-level flow will be veered and weak, the
tornado potential appears quite low. The chance for severe storms
and flooding is highest across our southeast zones, tapering off
northwestward into the I-35 and I-20 corridors where the potential
for thunderstorms is quite low. All convection should be exiting
the area to the east by early evening. At this time, no changes
are planned to the Flood Watch product which remains in effect
through midday. However, northern portions of the watch may be
trimmed in subsequent forecasts depending on observational and
model trends over the next few hours. An additional 1-2" of rain
would be possible if afternoon convection can develop in Central
Texas, and even these small rainfall amounts will be sufficient to
result in additional flash flooding due to already saturated
grounds.

Following the departure of today`s convective activity and the
passage of the weak cold front, dry and pleasant weather will
prevail heading into the midweek period with clearing skies and
warmer temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will return to the mid and
upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Our brief period of quiet weather will continue Wednesday, with a
warm afternoon in store for North and Central Texas. Temperatures
will mostly peak in the mid to upper 80s, but a few spots may
eclipse the 90 degree mark. A deepening shortwave trough will
swing into West Texas during the afternoon, which should aid in
the development of deep convection ahead of a dryline well to our
west. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity as they
move east, they likely won`t reach our western border until late
evening or into the overnight hours Wednesday night. We`ll at
least have a low potential for severe weather with this activity,
but this will largely depend on how these storms evolve as they
approach the area.

The shortwave will continue moving east on Thursday as a surface
low deepens across far West Texas. By midday, the dryline will
near our western border with a cold front draped across the Texas
Panhandle. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers
and storms throughout the day. Chances for showers and storms
will continue into Thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges
out of the Four Corners Region into the Southern Plains. Lift
will likely be maximized during this time period as the cold front
continues to move south and east towards the region. Some severe
threat could materialize Thursday and/or Thursday night. However,
there is unusually high uncertainty in how our upper level
pattern will evolve during this time period, which has rather
drastic implications on the expected timing, location, and
severity of the potential storms. Since we`re in the thick of
spring, make sure you monitor the forecast for any updates
throughout the week.

Unfortunately, the uncertainty bleeds into the weekend forecast as
there is significant model divergence from Friday onward. Given
the lack of confidence in any single solution, we stuck close to
national blends for now which advertises daily low rain chances
Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/06z TAFs/

IFR cigs briefly scattered on the back edge of the departing
shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening, but renewed
IFR cig development is now underway across western portions of D10
which will overspread all TAF sites early this morning. In
addition to cigs between 500-800 ft, visibility may occasionally
be reduced into the 1-4SM range through daybreak. There are a
couple of low-probability opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms near the TAF sites today, one in the morning with
activity moving southeastward out of Oklahoma, and another early
this afternoon with the arrival of a weak cold front. Brief
mentions of VCSH/VCTS have been maintained in the TAFs
accordingly. Precip chances will come to an end at the terminals
after ~21z with a light northwest wind and clearing skies to
follow.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  63  85  65  88 /  20   5   0   0   5
Waco                82  61  84  63  86 /  30  10   0   0   5
Paris               79  60  81  58  85 /  50  20   0   0   0
Denton              81  59  83  61  88 /  30   5   0   0   5
McKinney            81  61  82  61  86 /  30   5   0   0   0
Dallas              84  63  86  64  88 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             80  61  83  61  86 /  30   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           82  64  85  64  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
Temple              83  62  85  64  87 /  30  10   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       82  60  85  62  88 /  10   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ119>122-130>135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$