Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A front has made its way through the region and a pleasant spring
day is in store. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s in the
northeast to mid and upper 70s in the west and south. The skies
across nearly all the region will be sunny today, but some clouds
are likely to linger in our northeast counties. The upper level
low that played a role in our severe weather event last night is
currently located in eastern Kansas and will continue moving east
today. Upper level ridging will move across the Plains on Friday,
and afternoon highs will be significantly warmer in the 80s, with
near 90 degrees in our western counties. Our next chance for rain
is Saturday through Sunday as another upper level system affects
the Plains.

The cold front that moved through the region tonight is expected
to push deep into the Gulf of Mexico and as far south as the Bay
of Campeche. South flow will return across the region on Friday in
response to a surface high shifting east of the region and lee
side cyclogenesis ahead of the next upper level trough. Breezy
south winds of 10-20 mph on Friday will help to return some low-
level moisture back into the region with better moisture return
occurring Friday night and Saturday. However, the models are
split on how fast and deep the moisture return will be. The NAM
and GFS are the fastest with the moisture return, spreading 60+
dewpoints across the region late Friday and Friday night, but
sounding analysis shows this layer to be very shallow. The timing
of the Canadian is slightly behind these two models, and the
ECWMF is significantly more conservative with the moisture return.
Unfortunately, most of the high-resolution guidance don`t extend
too far into Friday to provide any additional help at this time.
With the front expected to push far south into the Gulf,
monitoring the moisture return will be important as it could have
implications on Saturday`s rain chances.

Differences between the moisture return along with other
differences between the models are making the forecast for
Saturday into Sunday challenging. Because of this, have kept the
PoPs a little more on the conservative side over the weekend.
Most models agree there will be rain in the region during this
time, but the evolution of rain and storms remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Two of the noticeable differences are in
the timing of the upper level trough and the track. The GFS and
NAM are the fastest with the speed of the trough but the NAM is
currently farther north with its position of the closed low;
however this is at the very end of its 00Z run (Hour 84). With the
upper level trough spreading height falls across the state on
Saturday, and possibly some embedded impulses tracking ahead of
the upper level low, there`s a chance showers and thunderstorms
may occur across the region during the day on Saturday. However,
if the upper level trough is farther west as the ECMWF suggests or
possibly tracking farther north as the NAM suggest, our rain
chances may decrease during the day. Depending on when the better
dynamics arrive on Saturday, we should see an increase in
thunderstorm activity along a dryline to our west and potentially
east of the dryline where better low level flow will be shifting
east. Strong or severe storms may be possible Saturday and
Saturday night with MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg and shear
values over 40 kts. Most soundings indicate tall, skinny CAPE with
weaker lapse rates which would suggest primarily a damaging wind
threat. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out at this time, but we
will further refine the threats as we receive more hi-res model
runs and hopefully better model consistency.

As the upper level trough continues moving east into Sunday, a
front will move across the region. Model differences regarding
the timing of the front and other surface features will hopefully
be ironed out as the weekend approaches, but widespread rain is
expected to develop ahead of the front as large scale lift from
the upper level trough continues across the eastern half of the
state. The highest rain chances remain mainly across the southern
half of the CWA. It does not appear much of a severe weather
threat will exist on Sunday as the front moves through the region,
but again this is an uncertainty we will continue to watch. Heavy
rain causing minor flooding issues may be the main hazard on

Some wrap around showers or thunderstorms may occur on Monday but
Tuesday is expected to be dry. Another front will pass through the
region on Tuesday night, and there are low chances for rain along
it. The models vary on the track of the upper level trough
associated with this front and therefore have kept rain chances
low for now. Dry weather will likely ensue for the remainder of
next week as upper level ridging moves across the Plains.



/ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/
06 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Minor crosswinds on north-south oriented runways.
Otherwise, VFR with south flow late in the TAF cycle.

VFR will continue through the entire 06 UTC TAF cycle as an upper
level low slowly pulls away from the region. Low level moisture
beneath this feature will pivot around and may graze the Metroplex
TAF sites through the overnight hours into Thursday morning.
Based on latest observations and trends, occasional VFR cigs
around FL080-FL100 will be possible at the Metroplex before this
low level moisture is scoured out. Waco should experience
predominantly high clouds throughout the entire TAF cycle.
Outside of perhaps a few cumulus puffs and high clouds, there
should not be any operationally significant restrictions to the
sky. Breezy northwest winds across area terminals will yield a
light crosswind, but overall impacts should be negligible.
Northwest winds will shift to the west by mid-morning Thursday
before becoming southwesterly Thursday evening when a return to
south flow will be possible. These winds will shift in response to
the approach of the next upper trough which will bring in
additional upper level clouds.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  54  85  62  79 /   5   0   5   5  40
Waco                78  54  85  62  80 /   5   0   5  10  40
Paris               68  49  81  56  81 /   5   0   5   5  20
Denton              73  50  84  58  78 /   5   0   5   5  40
McKinney            71  49  82  58  79 /   5   0   5   5  30
Dallas              75  55  85  62  80 /   5   0   5   5  40
Terrell             73  51  83  59  82 /   5   0   5   5  30
Corsicana           75  53  84  61  80 /   5   0   5   5  30
Temple              78  53  85  63  81 /   5   0   5  10  40
Mineral Wells       76  51  88  58  80 /   5   0   5  10  40




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