Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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316
FXUS64 KFWD 241800
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...

Concerns...Breezy winds will affect all DFW metroplex sites and
ACT.

For DFW Metroplex Sites:

Main concern this TAF period will be the gusty southerly winds
around 16 kts with gusts up to around 20-24 kts. The gusty winds
are attributed to the strengthening 40+ LLJ mixing down some
energy to the surface. As the LLJ max moves east, expect to see
winds diminish before a cold front moves through around 07Z
Wednesday. Winds will veer E-NE with VFR continuing through this
TAF cycle.


For Waco:

Breezy southerly winds will continue this afternoon diminishing to
around 5 kts ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is
expected to move in around 07Z with NE winds below 10 kts. Did
remove MVFR mention from TAF as it seems the main axis of moisture
will be just to the east of ACT. Trends will have to be monitored
in case of a westward shift in the moisture.


Hernandez

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

Another fast moving upper trough will swing through the Central
Plains today resulting in a deepening surface cyclone over Kansas
and increasing southwest winds across our region. This will result
in warming temperatures across North Texas under mostly sunny
skies. High temperatures today will climb into the mid/upper 70s
which is about 15-20 degrees above normal. A dryline will mix
eastward and should be near the I-35 corridor by this evening.
West of the dryline...relative humidity will drop to around 20%
and with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph there will be an increased
threat for grass fires. There is some concern that with higher
winds off the surface...afternoon mixing could result in an
extended period of gusts greater than 30 mph. The majority of the
model guidance is not that high though possibly due to an increase
in some mid level cloud cover. Yesterday`s Texas Forest Service
assessment of fuel moisture across the region mentioned the lack
of critically dry fuels in North Texas and the overall significant
fire potential appears to be low. Given that...we will hold off
on a Red Flag Warning for today although we do expect that areas
where abundant fine dead fuels are present...will see some grass
fire activity today.

By late tonight as the main upper trough continues to move
east...a cold front will move through North Texas. There is a very
small chance of showers along the front late tonight into early
Wednesday morning mainly across our southeast counties but we`ll
keep PoPs at only 10%. After this frontal passage late tonight the
upper pattern will be dominated by a dry westerly or northerly
flow through the end of the week into next weekend. This will
feature a benign pattern with mostly sunny skies...no
precipitation chances and temperatures near seasonal norms.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  43  58  35  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  44  62  34  58 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               73  44  56  32  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  39  55  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  42  56  31  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              76  45  57  36  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  44  58  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77  47  61  36  56 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              79  44  63  35  59 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  40  56  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08



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