Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 211747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS OF
LESS THAN 8 KTS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO E-ESE AT TIMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD PRECLUDE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED CU MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN.

FOR THE WACO TAF...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL WITH E WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH. A FEW POCKETS OF CU MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THE GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE
TAF SITE. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AND WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE SUB VFR BR/FG.
SHOULD WINDS DECREASE AND/OR THE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BE LESS
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...MVFR BR/FG MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON CU MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
WEST...FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE OUT THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD GROUP.

15-BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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