Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 041119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...

NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE THE MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ALL
CONVECTION REMAINING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY AND
CENTERED AROUND THE OZARK REGION TONIGHT. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS WE REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER HIGH. ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX THROUGH SUNRISE. AS IT
DOES SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE SUBSIDENCE...
LESS INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
850 MB. BULK OF MOISTURE IS LOCATED ABOVE 8-10 KFT SO WILL ONLY
ADVERTISE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH-BASED AND LIGHT NATURE OF RAINFALL
WILL ONLY YIELD SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS LIKE
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS.

THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING THE PANHANDLE ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AREA TODAY AND
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN RED RIVER VALLEY...FELT COMPELLED TO LEAVE OUT ANY
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WITH COLUMN MOISTURE DECREASING AS YOU GO
EAST. THIS MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED TODAY IF FORCING LOOKS STRONGER
THAN WHAT CURRENT SHORT-RANGE MODELS INDICATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS TONIGHT...BUT
THIS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WILL HOLD TO A DRY
FORECAST. THE SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DEEPENING ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A CUT OFF UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CA
COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. A THOROUGH LOOK AT ALL MODELS INDICATES
THE FASTER INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE UPPER HIGH ONLY LOOKS TO INTENSIFY OVER NORTH TEXAS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE HUDSON BAY
CIRCULATION RETROGRADING WEST OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. THIS
PROCESS WILL ONLY INTENSIFY THE SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AT 850 MB ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 102 DEGREES...BEFORE HEATING UP
TO BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK SAFE AT DFW...BUT MAY
BE THREATENED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER RECORD VALUES AROUND 105
DEGREES. WACO/S RECORDS ARE HOTTER AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IN
JEOPARDY.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE
SURFACE DEW PTS AND HUMIDITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD TOWARD
THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCALES
STARTING WEDNESDAY BUT IS MORE CERTAIN TO BE MET FOR THE PERIOD
THURSDAY AND BEYOND ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. IF YOU PLAN ON
BEING OUTDOORS FOR WORK OR RECREATION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BE PREPARED FOR THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS.    05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  80 100  80 102 /   5   0   5   0   5
WACO, TX             100  78 100  78 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  76  99  76 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            98  78 100  77 102 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  78  99  79 100 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX           100  81 101  81 102 /   5   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           99  77  99  77 101 /   0   0   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX        100  77 100  77 103 /   0   0   5   0   5
TEMPLE, TX           100  75 100  76 101 /   0   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  76  99  76 101 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75


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