Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210232 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
932 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED SOUTHEAST
OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO QUITMAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DISSIPATED BY 8 PM. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER TO
ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WILL FINALLY BRING LOW LEVEL STRATUS BACK TO THE
REGION TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET WILL RETURN TO
KACT AROUND 11Z TONIGHT AND THE METROPLEX AROUND 14-15Z. CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT BY 16-17Z.

SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-16 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING KACT AT THIS HOUR MAY RESULT IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION AROUND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST
NOSES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
CASE A STORM OR TWO MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF TEXAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS CLOSE...IT IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO HOT. HIGHS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
TYPICALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
DOESNT APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH
OF BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  99  77  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  95  72  98  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  76  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  97  76  98  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  74  97  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  99  75  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  99  73  99  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






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