Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 06Z AND INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX
BEFORE 12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP BY 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND BY 17Z AT WACO. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY 18-23Z...AND AGAIN
BY 17Z TUESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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