Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Abundant moisture and moderate instability will remain in place
across the region tonight through Monday and continue to be the
key ingredients for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Convection late this afternoon into the evening hours will remain
most likely on either side of a weak shear axis (as seen on
current water vapor images) which roughly bisects the region from
northeast to southwest. Any outflow from these storms will likely
initiate new convection which could linger through the evening
hours. These storms will have the potential to briefly become
strong/severe with downburst winds the primary hazard. Slow
movement and high precipitable water values will also yield
locally heavy rainfall in those areas fortunate enough to see
storms.

The focus for convection this evening into the overnight hours
will be along a very weak cold front currently moving across
Central Oklahoma. Models have been fairly consistent developing
at least some convection across southern Oklahoma along this front
with some weak organization expected through the night. Although
we don`t anticipate a strong MCS moving south of the Red River
overnight/Monday morning, there should be at least scattered
showers and storms with the best chances across the north and
northeast zones.

The activity that develops Monday afternoon will be largely
dependent on what happens during the morning hours. The most
likely scenario, and the one we will base this forecast on, is
that morning convection across the northern zones will send out
multiple outflows which will become the focus for afternoon and
early evening convection with the best storm chances across the
southeast quarter of the forecast area. Storms should dissipate
late Monday evening with the loss of surface heating and
increasing large scale subsidence.

Monday should be slightly cooler than today due to increasing
cloudiness and slightly higher storm coverage. Although it will
still be hot with high temperatures in the 90s, heat index values
will be below heat advisory criteria. Therefore, we will let the
current heat advisory expire at 7 PM tonight.

By Tuesday the upper ridge will build back over the Central and
Southern Plains and result in an increase in temperatures and a
decrease in rain chances. This pattern will continue on Wednesday
and Thursday with triple digit heat and heat index values in
excess of 105 returning to many locations.

The good news is that the upper ridge is progged to shift back to
the west by the weekend which will result in a weak frontal
passage Saturday, increasing rain/storm chances and slightly
cooler temperatures.

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/
The upper ridge currently anchored out west is being weakened on
its eastern flank by an upper low over Southern Louisiana, and a
shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Southern Plains.
This vulnerability will last through Monday, leading to
multiple opportunities for convection over the next 24 to 36
hours.

The 1.73 inch PWAT value on the morning sounding indicate that
the atmosphere has moistened considerably over the past 24 hours.
With isolated storms still ongoing around the region, the feeling
is that coverage will increase considerably after a few more hours
of surface heating and temperatures approach upper 90s. Due to
the expected scattered nature of the convection, VCTS will have to
suffice in area TAFs for the time being. If it becomes apparent
that storms will affect a particular airport, an amendment for
TEMPO TS will be done asap.

Activity should decrease in coverage this evening as surface
heating wanes. There is some indication that a loosely organized
MCS will develop over the Southern Plains in association with the
shortwave trough, and approach from the north during the
overnight hours. Storms would likely weaken as they approached, so
have stuck with VCSH tor the Monday morning hours. VCTS has been
added to the extended DFW TAF for anticipation of another round of
scattered convection Monday afternoon.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  98  80 100  81 /  20  40  20  10  10
Waco                77  99  77 100  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
Paris               75  93  75  96  76 /  30  40  20  10  10
Denton              77  95  77  99  79 /  20  40  20  10  10
McKinney            76  96  77  98  78 /  20  40  20  10  10
Dallas              80  98  80 100  81 /  20  40  20  10  10
Terrell             76  95  77  98  77 /  20  40  20  10  10
Corsicana           77  96  77  98  77 /  20  30  10  10  10
Temple              76  99  76 100  76 /  20  10   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       75  98  75  99  77 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

$$

79/30


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