Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240000 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue at TAF sites through 06z Saturday.
Southeast winds at 5 to 8 knots will become southerly overnight
and increase to 11 to 14 knots by 18z Friday. There will be
scattered high clouds.

58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/
Dry air will remain place across the region tonight with northwest
flow aloft and light southerly surface winds. As a result, skies
will remain clear tonight with the exception of a few passing
high clouds. The clear skies and light wind will allow for rapid
radiational cooling, but since it was much warmer today than
yesterday, it will be warmer overnight with lows mainly in the
40s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/
/Friday Onward/

The remainder of the holiday weekend (and most of the extended
forecast for that matter) will be warm and dry for most of the
region. An upper ridge will remain in control over the western US
through the weekend which will keep us in a northwest flow regime
aloft. As a result, near or above normal temperatures will
prevail into early next week despite the passage of a weak cold
front.

Friday afternoon will be several degrees warmer than today as we
become located within the warm sector of a developing surface low
in the TX Panhandle. By Saturday morning, the low`s attendant
cold front should begin to be pulled through the forecast area,
shifting the winds to the north. Weak cold advection will cause
highs to be 5-10 degrees cooler than Friday. With practically no
moisture available, rain chances along this front are nil. Similar
conditions can be expected on Sunday as winds finally return to
the south by the evening.

By late Monday and Tuesday, the ridge should begin to break down
and very strong height falls will overspread much of the western
US and the Plains states. The surface pressure will also tighten
and breezy conditions are expected across the area Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. High temperatures will climb back into
the 70s and even low 80s. The next front is expected to arrive
sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday, although there is still
considerable disagreement among guidance as to when this front
will arrive. The GFS remains the fastest solution regarding the
frontal passage while the ECMWF is around 24 hours later. Have
continued to split the difference on the timing for now. Some very
low rain chances will accompany this front east of I-35 since
moisture will have had time to recover prior to its arrival.
However, most of the area is expected to remain dry through the
middle of next week. The large scale pattern is not expected to
become supportive of widespread rainfall in the near future, so
increasing drought conditions and occasional fire weather danger
will be the main story through at least the next couple of weeks.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  78  50  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  77  47  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               40  71  47  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              41  77  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            41  74  48  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              47  77  51  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             41  74  47  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           42  73  50  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  77  48  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  80  46  74  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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