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FXUS62 KTAE 260026
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
It`s shaping up to be a nice and quiet overnight period. There are
no significant changes to the previous forecast thinking
appended below.

Surface high pressure centered over southwestern AL this afternoon
will move northeast to a position over the Carolinas by 12Z Friday.
The high will be positioned close enough allow winds to decouple
overnight. The combination of calm winds and clear skies will allow
for good radiational cooling. Morning lows will generally be in the
mid 30s, although a few spots across the northernmost points of the
forecast area could briefly touch freezing. With dew points also in
the 30s, we do expect frost formation in any area that drops to 36
degrees or less. That would include most inland areas by 12Z.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Winds will be light and shifting to the east or northeast
on Friday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Deep layer ridge will dominate the southeastern states on Friday,
with the surface high centered over South Carolina. This will keep
the weather dry under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should
begin to moderate with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.

By Friday night, the upper ridge axis will slide east (along with
the surface high) allowing for return flow to become established
over the western half of the forecast area. Upper trough over the
central states will slide east by Saturday morning, with weak
shortwave energy ejecting from the base and moving through the
Deep South during the day. This will increase rain chances,
primarily over the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, with highest
PoP planned for those areas Saturday and Saturday night. Guidance
differs on the placement of the heaviest axis of rainfall, with
the ECMWF farther northwest than the GFS. Will lean towards the
lower (more northwest) QPF of the ECMWF for the moment given the
overall trend for the primary shortwave to deamplify with time
over the weekend. This solution would also keep the heaviest
rainfall away from the saturated soils across SE Alabama and the
Panhandle. However, given the uncertainty, will need to monitor
the evolution of this event carefully.

Fortunately, the guidance is in agreement on keeping the heavy
rain well northwest of the AAF-TLH-ABY corridor which needs some
time to recover from the heavy rain earlier in the week.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Rain will likely linger into at least Sunday as the primary
shortwave shears out to the northeast and the surface front slowly
presses southward. Guidance differs again on the southward
progression of the front through Monday, with the GFS stalling the
front across the local area and the ECMWF pushing it south. For
now, will keep some low-end PoPs across the area on Monday given
the southwesterly flow aloft. Should see at least a brief period of
drying for mid- week before rain chances increase again late in
the week. Temperatures will be above normal for Sunday and Monday
ahead of the front, before returning to near normal levels for the
middle of next week.


.Marine...
Winds will shift to the east and approach 15 knots overnight and
early Friday as high pressure slides northeast of the area.
Southeasterly winds near cautionary levels are possible by
Saturday over the western waters as a stalls north of the waters.
Onshore flow is expected to continue into early next week.


.Fire Weather...
Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend
will keep red flag conditions away for the next week. With low
mixing heights and relatively low transport winds during the day on
Friday and Saturday, low dispersion values are expected.


.Hydrology...
Recent heavy rainfall has resulted in sharp rises along many of
our area rivers. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast for points
along the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Sopchoppy, Withlacoochee,
and Apalachicola Rivers as well as in the Kinchafoonee Creek. Most
points are still rising, although a few points have already
crested or will crest today. Our next round of rain will start
this weekend and we may see an additional 1-2" of rain from it,
which will keep river levels high.

For the most up to date information, please visit:
http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  65  50  70  58 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   42  65  54  69  62 /   0   0  20  50  30
Dothan        35  62  49  65  57 /   0   0  20  70  50
Albany        33  63  46  67  56 /   0   0  10  50  50
Valdosta      35  64  50  71  57 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    35  69  52  75  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  42  62  54  67  62 /   0   0  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE





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