Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 041930
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon observational data from 18 UTC shows that not much has
changed overall from just six hours ago. The upper low is nearing
the NE Florida coast, but persistent low level N-NW flow is
keeping the cool airmass in place, and with a rather strong
inversion at 850 mb, the extensive stratus deck has been slow to
thin. The last couple of visible images has shown some thinning of
this layer across Southern Georgia, but with it already getting
late in the day, it`s unlikely we`ll see much in the way of
sunshine this afternoon. Temperatures have only risen a few
degrees beneath the extensive cloudiness. Even at 1 pm CDT,
there`s a couple sites in the Florida Panhandle still in the 50s -
quite chilly for early October.
Model guidance finally shows the pattern starting to move overnight
with the upper low moving into the Western Atlantic and the low
level moisture gradually starting to decrease. The models tend to be
a bit quick with scouring out moisture beneath an inversion in this
type of pattern, so expect cloud cover to stay in place overnight
with lows around 60. Rain chances will be greatest (30-40 percent)
across the South Central Georgia where what little vertical lift
remains is greatest.
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper low just off the east coast of Florida early Monday will
lift to the northeast and open up east of Cape Hatteras states
Tuesday night. As the upper low pulls further away, deep layer
ridging and a much drier airmass will move in. Until then, lingering
extensive low level cloudiness will persist along with chances for
light rain generally along and east of Albany to Tallahassee through
Monday. With building heights we will see a gradual warming trend
through the period. On Monday, temps will still be below average due
to the expected cloud cover with highs in the lower 70s north to
around 80 for Dixie county. Highs will be in the lower 80s on
Tuesday. Lows both nights will range from the upper 50s to lower
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Upper layer ridging through most of the upcoming week will flatten
with flow becoming zonal over the next weekend. At the surface,
weak ridging will persist with moisture increasing by the end of
the week into the weekend. This pattern will bring seasonal temps
with low end rain chances starting Friday.
[Through 18Z Monday] MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR cigs will
prevail through the afternoon and early evening hours. After 04z,
expect ceilings to transition back to widespread IFR with areas of
LIFR possible before sunrise, especially at DHN and VLD. Should see
a little quicker improvement on Monday with 1500-2000ft cigs all
sites around 16z, and likely scattering out to VFR after 18z Mon.
Moderate to occasionally rather strong N-NE winds will persist
through Tuesday night as the pressure gradient remains relatively
Relative humidity values will remain above 50% for the next several
days. Therefore, red flag conditions will not occur.
The Choctawhatchee River has crested down to near Red Bay and
will crest Monday evening at Bruce. The river will crest about a
foot and a half below action stage.
Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 61 77 64 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 0
Panama City 62 78 65 81 66 / 10 0 0 10 0
Dothan 61 75 61 81 59 / 20 0 10 10 0
Albany 62 73 61 80 58 / 30 20 10 10 0
Valdosta 60 75 62 79 59 / 30 30 10 10 0
Cross City 58 81 64 83 63 / 20 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 63 78 65 80 65 / 10 10 0 10 0
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal