Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 060148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AFTER A FAIRLY EARLY ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A LARGE COLD POOL DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION AND SET UP A DRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO INCLUDED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BASED ON SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON RADAR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70, A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A
VFR CUMULUS FIELD TOMORROW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ECP, TLH, AND VLD MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME, THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS
PREDECESSOR BUT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE
(50-60%) MONDAY AND MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(20-40%) ON TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 MONDAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS.


.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.


.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY POSSIBILITY
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE MULTI-RADAR MULTI-SENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5" ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 2-4" IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND RECEIVING GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.5". WHILE THIS RAINFALL CAUSED SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, OUR
RIVERS WERE LOW ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN AND NO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING,
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  60  20  30  20
PANAMA CITY   76  87  76  88  77 /  20  50  20  20  20
DOTHAN        70  89  71  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        70  90  72  93  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
VALDOSTA      69  91  71  94  73 /  10  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    72  92  72  92  74 /  10  50  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  75  89  75  89  76 /  10  40  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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