Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250020
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
820 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The front is currently west of a line from Panama City to Albany
and will continue to push east through the night. There are a few
showers ongoing in south Georgia and the Big Bend which are
expected to move out of the area over the next few hours. Lows
tonight will be cooler than the past few nights and will range
from the mid 50s in SE AL to mid 60s in the Big Bend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [725 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The long wave trough will reach its peak amplitude as it`s axis
passes east of the area Thursday morning. The associated late-
season cold front will sweep drier air into the region setting us
up for a couple of days of unseasonably low humidity and
relatively mild temperatures, especially at night. High Thursday
will only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will
reach 55 to 60 degrees in most areas with mid to upper 60s near
the coast. It will be a little warmer on Friday with highs in the
upper 80s inland and lower 80s coast, but humidity levels will
remain low.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Memorial Day weekend will be through saturday night. While
temperatures will be a bit higher than Thursday and Friday, they
won`t be bad for this deep into Spring with highs around 90.
Humidity levels will gradually increase early next week as another
front approaches and eventually stalls across the region. Daily
chances for scattered thunderstorms will commence Sunday and
continue into midweek.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

Most of the rain has moved past TAF sites and VFR conditions will
continue through the period. Gusty winds will decrease
overnight then will be from the west-southwest around 10 kts with
gusts to 20 kts Thursday.


.MARINE...

Small craft advisory conditions continue across the marine area
today and will persist through the night. Waters east of
Apalachicola may sea wind gusts to gale force at times, generally
in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds and seas will drop below
advisory criteria Thursday morning, but remain at cautionary
levels through most of the day. The downward trend in winds and
seas will then continue into the weekend with light to moderate
onshore winds expected from Friday through Sunday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH will decrease starting on Thursday but will remain above critical
thresholds. High transport winds will lead to high dispersion
indices on Thursday afternoon.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals thus far and predicted through tonight should not
cause any major concerns. MOst of the area has been relatively dry
and the locally heavy showers that remain should be progressive
enough to limit any flash flood threat. While some area rivers are
rising, none are predicted to even get close to flood stage.

Concerning coastal flooding, the Cedar Key tide gage peaked at 6.5
feet above MLLW with a surge of 2.5 feet. High tide has just passed
and existing advisories and warnings will be left in place until
later this afternoon to allow the tide to ebb away from the peak
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  82  56  89  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   64  77  66  82  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        57  79  60  88  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  78  57  88  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  80  56  88  63 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  80  59  87  64 /  40  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  81  65  85  70 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Wool



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