Area Forecast Discussion
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933
FXUS62 KTAE 241938
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
east, elongate, and according to short term model solutions,
weaken as the afternoon and evening progresses. Therefore, chances
this afternoon will be highest across the northern half of the
CWA. This evening, chances will begin to wind down but will
maintain slight chances across the north as a weak cold front sags
into southern AL/GA by sunrise Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected overnight which will hold low temps in the mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A +PV anomaly aloft of Quebec will swing off the Newfoundland coast
Sunday night, dragging a cold front across the southeastern states.
With the energy driving this system well to our north, and a moist
airmass over the south thanks to the remnants of Cindy, the front
will dissipate as it moves through. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely (60-70%) across north Florida as the front pushes in and
slows down, but will lower through Monday night as the system
dissipates. As is typical this time of year, shear will be weak with
low level (0-1 km) shear around 5 kts and deep layer (0-6 km) shear
around 20 kts. Still, our summertime instability (MLCAPE over 2000
J/kg) will mean that a few downbursts of strong to severe winds may
be possible with storms on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper
80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Slightly drier and cooler air will set in behind a weak cold front
as it leaves our area Monday. This should lead to lower PoPs than
normal, around 20-30%, for the afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday in
most of the region. Thursday afternoon PoPs will be back up around
40-50% across the area and remain that high in the afternoons
through the weekend as surface winds are forecasted to become more
southerly, providing more moisture for convection to develop. High
temperatures will remain in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s
through the forecast period, with a couple degrees of gradual
warming expected into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across our NW
sections and close to DHN. This line will continue to move east with
short term models showing a weakening trend later this afternoon.
DHN/ABY and perhaps ECP will be impacted by this line.
Otherwise, low VFR conds are expected for the rest of the day and
tonight. Overnight, some MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible across
areas that receive rainfall this afternoon with improvement back to
VFR by Sunday late morning.

&&

.MARINE...

A front will approach the area and decay as it crosses our coastal
waters Sunday night. This will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms early this week. Outside of storms, winds will
generally be 15 knots or less with waves of 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than possible low dispersion values across the western Florida
panhandle Sunday, red flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

We received some much needed rainfall this past Tuesday and
Wednesday courtesy of Cindy. Rises from this rainfall have peaked
for the most part, though some rises continue along the
Choctawhatchee river basin. There are no more points in flood stage
at this time, though a few points remain in or will rise to action
stage. Rainfall accumulations from a frontal passage this weekend
are expected to remain around an inch or less, which should not
cause widespread flooding, but may slow the lowering of elevated
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  87  72  86  69 /  10  70  40  30  20
Panama City   75  84  74  86  72 /  10  60  30  30  10
Dothan        72  87  69  86  67 /  40  40  20  10  10
Albany        72  89  69  86  66 /  40  40  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  85  68 /  20  60  40  40  20
Cross City    72  89  73  87  71 /  10  30  30  60  30
Apalachicola  74  84  75  85  73 /  10  50  30  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore/Patton
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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