Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190031
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
831 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At 00Z, a surface trough can be analyze from near Apalachicola, FL
northeastward to Fitzgerald, GA. This surface feature is enhanced
by the northwestern quadrant of a tropical upper-tropospheric
trough (TUTT). A loop of IR satellite imagery shows enhanced
convection this afternoon and evening firing up right along the
overlap of these boundaries, as well as along with our north FL
seabreeze boundary. Adjusted PoPs up to a slight chance (20%)
across parts of GA this evening with convection along this surface
trough/UL tough overlap. As we continue to lose solar radiation
however, these storms are expected to diminish over the next hour
or two. Overnight, temperatures will fall into the 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [719 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Overall, the area will be in a mid/upper col region with very weak
deep layer flow over the next few days. At lower levels, general
northwesterly flow is on tap, with a relatively dry airmass in
place (especially on Saturday). Northwest flow is generally dry
for the northwestern half of the area, so will have low PoP for
that region. Best rain chances will be south of I-10 and over the
eastern Big Bend. Very warm conditions will continue with highs in
the mid 90s on Saturday.

By Sunday, the low-level flow will shift around to the east, with
some moistening of the deep layer. Therefore, may see a bit more
coverage of afternoon showers and storms.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on
Monday, which will increase cloud cover and rain chances (which
could dampen eclipse viewing). Through the remainder of the week,
typical summertime conditions will persist with scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.


.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Sunday] Isolated convection near KTLH is expected to
diminish by 01z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with the
possible exception of brief MVFR at KVLD around dawn.


.MARINE...
Outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms, winds and seas
will remain rather low through the forecast period.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers are below "action stage" and will remain so through
this weekend. Organized heavy rain is unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  95  74  95  76 /  20  40  10  40  30
Panama City   78  92  79  92  79 /  20  30  10  30  30
Dothan        73  95  73  96  75 /  10  20  10  30  20
Albany        73  96  74  96  76 /  10  20  10  30  20
Valdosta      75  94  74  94  75 /  20  50  10  40  20
Cross City    76  93  75  93  75 /  30  50  10  40  40
Apalachicola  78  91  78  91  78 /  20  40  10  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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