Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 221121
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
621 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...
Scattered showers and storms will develop this morning ahead of a
cold front and potential squall line to move from west to east
across the area this afternoon. Low pressure will develop across
the northern Gulf coast, deepen rapidly, and move northeast
towards northern Georgia this evening. Low level wind fields will
strengthen today with windy conditions by the afternoon gusts to
35 knots possible. Severe weather is possible through the day with
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible. Cold front
should clear the area by this evening with breezy conditions
.PREV DISCUSSION [334 AM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A brief lull in the showers and thunderstorms is expected in the
predawn hours as the current MCS shifts northeastward. Attention
turns back west towards the upper trough which will move across
the ARKLATEX into MS/AL by late today. This will induce surface
cyclogenesis across southern MS with a surface low deepening
rapidly and moving northeast. Large scale ascent will increase
with showers and storms increasing in coverage and intensity this
morning in the warm sector and also along the westward moving cold
front progged to enter western fL panhandle and SE AL by midday.
All modes of severe weather is possible until the cold front moves
through. SPC has atleast an enhanced risk of severe weather
across all Tri-State counties today with a MODERATE RISK for
severe weather across SW GA and FL Big Bend counties. Again, all
modes of severe weather is possible including a strong tornado or
Severe threat will decrease from west to east later this
afternoon as the cold front moves through and mid level dry air
The surface wind field strengthens today as the aforementioned
surface low pressure deepens. Although models differ on placement
on stronger winds today, most agree that wind advisory criteria
will be met across portions of the Tri-State region this
afternoon. Therefore, have issued a wind advisory for this
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Wrap around moisture from the upper trough itself will keep slight
chances of rainfall in the forecast through Monday morning.
Nothing severe, just light showers as this feature moves away from
the area. Monday afternoon through Tuesday are dry with high
pressure building in. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s to
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
Tranquil weather is anticipated through Wednesday at which time
another cold front will swing through Wednesday night and
Thursday. Colder air will accompany this system with highs Friday
and into the weekend in the 50s with lows in the 30s and
approaching freezing across SE AL and SW GA.
A gale warning has been hoisted for all coastal water zones
beginning this afternoon through midday monday. Conditions will
continue to deteriorate as winds increase in response to
developing low pressure across the southeast united states.
Conditions appear to improve beginning Tuesday.
Other than high dispersions later this afternoon, no fire weather
Another round of precipitation is expected today. 1-2 inches of
rainfall is possible with locally higher amounts before rainfall
generally ends this evening. Where areas received heavy rainfall
last night, rivers are responding with the Choctawhatchee River at
Newton forecasted to reach flood stage today. Other area rivers
will need to be watched today and tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 74 52 65 42 67 / 90 30 10 0 0
Panama City 71 56 63 47 63 / 90 30 10 0 0
Dothan 72 50 61 41 65 / 90 30 10 0 0
Albany 73 51 63 41 65 / 90 30 20 0 0
Valdosta 74 51 64 42 65 / 90 30 10 0 0
Cross City 75 55 65 43 66 / 80 50 10 0 0
Apalachicola 72 56 65 47 64 / 90 40 10 0 0
FL...Wind Advisory from noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5 PM
CST/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-
Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.
High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EST this evening for Baker-
AL...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.