Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301914
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TODAY WITH THE
EASTERLIES OF RECENT DAYS VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR AREA. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THIS AREA, THIS
SHOULD FAVOR DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
AFTER 21Z) IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND. WE MAINTAINED 30-50% POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A TIFTON TO PERRY
LINE. REMNANT ACTIVITY ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE FL BIG BEND. FURTHER WEST,
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SEA
BREEZE AND WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. POPS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 20-
40% AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE ON
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUS TO SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY, WITH THE DISTURBANCE MUCH
CLOSER TO THE AREA, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50
PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WITH MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE OVERALL TREND FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN FOR THE
PATTERN TO SHIFT TO A MORE WET SET UP AS THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REMAINS GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY JUNE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
(POSSIBLY AFFECTING ECP). OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE VLD VICINITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO THE IFR RANGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER AT DHN, ABY, AND TLH. OVERNIGHT,
WE WILL SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBY AT TLH, ABY AND VLD. SOME
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING IFR CIGS, BUT WE KEPT LOW CLOUDS
SCATTERED FOR NOW ALLOWING FOR A DOWNWARD TREND IN LATER FORECASTS
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
TYPICAL LIGHT SUMMERTIME WINDS THAT SHIFT TO ONSHORE DURING THE DAY
AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, HAZARDOUS FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A
COUPLE SITES WILL REMAIN IN ACTION STAGE OR RISE TO IT, BUT NO
FLOODING IS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  90  69  90  70 /  20  40  10  40  20
PANAMA CITY   71  86  71  85  70 /   0  30  10  30  20
DOTHAN        69  90  69  88  68 /   0  40  20  50  20
ALBANY        69  90  69  89  69 /  10  40  20  50  30
VALDOSTA      69  91  68  91  69 /  10  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    69  90  68  89  69 /  30  40  20  40  20
APALACHICOLA  72  86  71  85  69 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY


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