Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231430

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
930 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Local radars show the back edge of light to occasionally moderate
rain extending from near Tifton to Tallahassee at 14z. As the
surface low in the Gulf continues to lifts off to the northeast,
cooler and drier air will filter in from the west. Most areas west
of the river should see skies gradually clearing later this
morning and afternoon with rain confined mainly to the southeast
Big Bend. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Light rain will come to an end from west to east across the
eastern Big Bend and south-central Georgia as the surface low and
associated warm front move into the western Atlantic tonight. In
the wake of the shortwave responsible for the Gulf low
development, another shortwave will move into the Southeast
Friday night and through the Tri-State region on Saturday. Due to
the lack of abundant low-level moisture and little to no surface
forcing, expect only mid/high level cloudiness as this shortwave
moves through the region. Under the eastern CONUS longwave trough,
and with the presence of at least some cloud cover both Friday and
Saturday, expect highs to be at or just a degree or so below
seasonal averages. Abundant cloud cover combined with light winds
tonight will keep lows a bit above normal. Expect lows to range
from the upper 40s across southeast Alabama, up to the middle 50s
across the southeast Big Bend. Clear skies and calm winds on
Friday night will allow lows to fall into the middle 40s region-

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will begin to lift out of the Southeast
on Sunday, with zonal flow aloft and low-level ridging prevailing
by the start of next week. By mid-week another frontal system will
approach from the west, though rain chances appear quite low for
the time being. Highs and lows will generally be seasonable
through the period, though afternoon highs have a better chance of
being above normal starting early next week.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

RA continues across portions of the region at this hour, with TLH
and VLD currently seeing the worst conditions. MVFR to potentially
IFR conditions remain possible this morning as CIGS lower across the
region. A gradual improvement in conditions are expected from west
to east this afternoon, with conditions returning to VFR at nearly
all TAF sites by this evening/tonight.


In general, northeasterly winds will remain just below Advisory
conditions through today. Cautionary conditions will continue
through tonight before winds and seas calm heading into the
weekend. Rain should come to an end late tonight.


Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected over the next
several days. Chances for wetting rains will be high today before
drier conditions move into the area for the weekend.


On average, 1-2" of rain will be possible across the southeast Big
Bend today. Isolated higher amounts likely won`t top 3". After
tonight no rain is expected until mid week next week. Even then,
QPF looks like it will remain low. Flooding is not a concern over
the next week or so.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   68  52  69  46  71 /  70  20  10   0   0
Panama City   68  54  68  52  69 /  20  10  10   0   0
Dothan        65  47  67  45  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
Albany        64  47  66  45  69 /  30  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      65  50  65  46  70 /  80  40  20   0   0
Cross City    67  55  67  47  71 / 100  60  30   0   0
Apalachicola  70  55  68  53  70 /  60  20  10   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin.




SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
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