Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 061904
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The upper level closed low across the mid-Atlantic this afternoon
continues to drift northward through tonight with the H5 flow across
the area north to northwest. At the surface, high pressure centered
along the western Gulf coast will shift into the lower Mississippi
Valley tonight, building high pressure across the CWA. Given this,
the area will remain dry through tonight. Low temperatures will fall
into the the upper 40s to lower 50s across much of the CWA, with the
upper 50s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

As the upper low moves off the East coast, upper level flow will
become more zonal. High pressure will stay in place over the
southeast through the weekend with no rainfall expected. With
little cloud cover and plenty of sun, temperatures will return to
more average values, highs in the low 80s on Saturday and mid 80s
on Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Stacked lows over the plains will slowly move northeast during
the first part of the period. By Tuesday moisture will increase
and PoPs return to the forecast. Expect 20-30% rain chances
Tuesday through Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s with lows
in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. NW winds around
10G18kts this afternoon will decrease overnight. A few cu clouds
around 6kft are possible this afternoon at the northern TAF sites
(ABY and DHN).

&&

.MARINE...

Through Monday winds will generally be 10 knots or less with seas
3 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong daytime mixing and insolation will drive afternoon dispersion
values above 75 in some locations on Saturday. The airmass will
remain dry, and RH values will likely fall below 30% in some
locations Saturday afternoon. However, fuel moisture remains above
critical levels and wind speeds will be relatively light.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   51  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   56  78  65  80  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  81  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  81  57  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  81  56  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    49  81  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  79  64  81  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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