Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 080022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
722 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a broad high
pressure system across much of the Southeast. A cold front was
moving southeastward through AR and OK, and this front will move
through our forecast area on Monday. We expect clear skies and
light winds overnight, but there may be just enough wind to
prevent a freeze at most locations. However, a few sites could
briefly reach freezing (away from the cities and beaches), and
patchy frost is also possible.

&&

.Prev Discussion [622 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak cold front will move through the CWA on Monday and latest
guidance is a bit wetter with the system than the previous dry
front thinking. QPF with the front will be light, generally less
than a tenth of an inch. With the light amounts, think guidance is
having a hard time showing higher PoPs, but with the upward trend
and good agreement with light QPF, have increased PoPs for
tomorrow. The best chances will be across the eastern portion of
the CWA. Even with increasing PoPs, the forecast may still be on
the lower side. The front will push out of the area Monday night with
some precip lingering over the marine area.

Winds will be stronger Monday and Tuesday with sustained values
up to 20 mph and gusts to around 25-28mph. Wind speeds will remain
below wind advisory criteria though.

Low temperatures will cool down behind the front with some areas
dropping below freezing. At this point though, too limited in area
for a Freeze Watch for Monday night. By Tuesday night though most
of the area is below freezing and will likely require a Freeze
Warning if trends hold.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

With a trough situated over the eastern CONUS, the CWA will remain
in NW flow aloft for the majority of the long term. Overall
though, limited waves affecting the CWA through Sunday. The GFS
is hinting at a shortwave Friday to Saturday that could bring some
rain back to the area in that time frame. The ECMWF is a little
more subtle with the wave but still develops some precip for the
area. So, other than a slight chance of rain with the system the
long term remains dry with high pressure building in for the
second half of the weekend.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Monday] Fair skies and light W-NW winds will prevail
overnight. W Winds will become strong and gusty by late Monday
morning or early afternoon as a cold front moves through the
region. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 30 KT are
likely. VFR cigs (4-6k ft) will develop by afternoon, with SHRA
possible around KVLD and KCTY.


.Marine...

Winds are on a weakening trend, but given observations and the
forecast, will hold onto the Small Craft Advisory for a few more
hours. Winds will start to increase again around sunrise. With a
front coming through on Monday, winds will remain strong both
Monday and Tuesday with gusts into the Gale range. Have upgraded
the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning - the exception is the far
eastern marine zones where the Gale Watch was left in place. With
these stronger winds, seas will reach to around 14 feet. Winds
will weaken on Wednesday and fall below advisory criteria on
Thursday.


.Fire Weather...

The expected strong winds through Tuesday will keep dispersion
values above normal, even during the overnight period on Monday
night. Daytime dispersions will be above 75. Although the airmass
will be cool and dry the next few days, RH values are not expected
to fall below locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

No significant rainfall is expected over the next seven days, which
will allow river levels across much of South Georgia and Alabama to
drop below action levels. However, down into North Florida, flooding
will continue for some time on the Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola
Rivers. The Withlacoochee River will also be on the rise through the
coming week.

On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville crested this morning at 13.65 feet
in minor flood stage. Further downstream at Bruce, moderate flooding
is expected to continue, with the river cresting near 15.5 feet on
Tuesday afternoon.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, releases from Walter F
George have been cut back considerably. Blountstown will remain in
flood for some time, but has crested for this event, having peaked
at 21.01 feet this morning, with the river dropping slowly
throughout the remainder of the week.

Over on the Withlacoochee/Little River system, Valdosta is cresting
this morning. Increased flows down the Little River will approach
peak levels late tonight into Monday. The combined flow from these
two sources will result in rises at the US-84 crossing approaching
107.6 feet on Tuesday night, just below moderate flood stage. Should
this crest verify, the next downstream point near Pinetta could
approach flood stage late next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  63  34  51  30 /   0  20  20   0   0
Panama City   47  59  38  51  37 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        35  58  31  47  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
Albany        34  58  31  47  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      35  62  34  50  30 /   0  30  10   0   0
Cross City    36  64  37  54  31 /   0  30  20  10   0
Apalachicola  45  63  39  53  37 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE


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