Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 261346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
946 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Seasonal and dry high pressure will remain over the region
today...before a weak and mostly dry cold front crosses the area
Thursday. Warm high pressure returns Friday before another weak
frontal passage occurs late Sunday. Warm and dry high pressure moves
in early next week.


As of 945 AM EDT...The forecast remains on track this morning.
Patches of lower stratus were indicated in obs and satellite imagery
across the southwest NC mountain valleys and nearby in NE GA, but
these low clouds should burn off momentarily.

Otherwise, fair weather continues today into tonight as the axis of
an upper ridge moves overhead while surface high pressure gradually
slips east. High temps will be near normal again this afternoon,
maybe a degree or two warmer than yesterday. The only fcst concern
may be air quality over the NC mtns were smoke from a wildfire could
remain trapped under a strong subsidence inversion persisting into
tonight. It now appears that the main short wave and surface front
will remain well to our west through sunrise on Thursday. None of
the operational model guidance has precip reaching the NC mountains
by 12Z Thursday, and only limited members from the SREF/GEFS have
precip reaching KAVL by that time. For that reason, will continue a
dry forecast for the mountains for tonight. Low temps will be a
category or two warmer with increasing high clouds ahead of the


At 145 AM Wednesday: Upper level heights begin to drop ahead of an
incoming cold front Thu morn. This front will have limited moisture
to work with and it loses upper support from a decaying H5 s/w.
Thus...pops have been adj down for Thu thru the entire fropa. Right
now...have chance pops confined to the NC mtns with slight chc
elsewhere thru 18z. Precip chances become more limited in the
afternoon with localized low-end qpf amounts. Mid and high level
cloud cover will help hold max temps right arnd or a bit above
normal. On Fri...upper heights rebound as a small scale Canadian
high pressure area merges with an Atl high thru Fri night. Max temps
will rebound in an increasingly deep  subs zone and w/ly llvl flow
to about 10 degrees above climo. Min temps Thu and Fri nights will
be maintained a cat or so above normal levels.


At 155 AM Tuesday: Not much change was made to the going fcst. A
high confidence pattern will envelope the srn CONUS as a strong
sub-trop high dominates thru most of the period. A weakness moves
thru the mid Atl region late Sun and swings a dry cold front over
the CWFA Sun night into Mon...but no sigfnt airmass mix will occur.
Max temps will remain a good 10 degrees above normal Sat/Sun...and
with a relative lowering of thicknesses Mon/Tue...max temps will
lower by only a cat or so. Mins will remain above normal by a few
degrees as well.


At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue through the
period at the TAF sites. Any lingering low stratus or fog in the
southwest NC mountain valleys will dissipate quickly. Expect light
ENE across the Foothills/Piedmont this morning to quickly go back to
SE for good by late morning. Expect little more than a few cirrus
throughout most of the day, but higher clouds will thicken tonight
ahead of an approaching front.

Outlook: High pressure will migrate offshore tonight. A fast-moving
cold front will cross the area Thursday into Thursday night, but
with very limited moisture. Dry high pressure will return Friday
through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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