Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 290708
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING TODAY WITH
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...AN ANOMALOUS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONT NOW IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST IN
THE MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL BE CARRIED. ALTHOUGH CAPE IS
RATHER LIMITED...SOME SHEAR WILL EXIST. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP
CELLS MOVING...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MEAN L/WV TROUGH AXIS ATOP THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTEDLY...THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW WILL BE UNSEASONABLY QUICK AND
AVERAGE FROM THE WSW. WITHIN THE WSW LLVL FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MODEST...YET STEADY...ALLOWING DAILY
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TO INCREASE EACH DAY TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SFC-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL GIVE RISE TO POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING LEADING
TO SCATTERED SVR TSTMS. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE AND THE LATE JUNE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLOW/TOKEN
RISE IN HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK...PROBABLY KEEPING THE PROGGED WAVY FRONT/BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME DEGREE OF ABNORMAL AMPLIFICATION TO
THE MEAN PATTERN TO START OFF JULY...DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD AVERAGE HIGHER THEN CLIMO. HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR INTO THE SE CONUS THAT
BERMUDA HIPRES ASSERTS ITSELF...BUT AT THIS POINT...THERE/S REALLY
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE INHERITED FCST WHICH IS TYPICAL EARLY
JULY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT.  LOW
VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY WELL TOE THE WEST WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAWN...BECOMING A SCATTERED LAYER BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...THEN THE VEER SW BY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. THERE IS LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DAYBREAK FOG
RESTRICTION AT KAVL...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS VFR. LIMITED HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE MOVING UP FROM THE SW MAY SURVIVE TO REACH THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY AND A MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD START TO ARRIVE AFTER DAWN...
BECOMING A SCATTERED CLOUD LAYER BY EVENING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE BEST AT KAVL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR THE NNE OVERNIGHT...THEN
VEER SW ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LINGERING BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCT TO NUM DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR WITH PASSING
STORMS...AND EACH MORNING OVER AREAS OF WET SOIL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JAT


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