Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 221510

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1010 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Numerous waves of energy will bring rounds of heavy rain and
thunderstorms to the area today and tonight. A vigorous low pressure
system will sweep towards the Carolinas today and move northeast of
the Carolinas on Monday, bringing abundant moisture and the
potential for storms today and tonight. Some of the storms could be
severe. Mild high pressure will move in Tuesday and Wednesday until
a cold front crosses the region Wednesday night.


As of 945 AM, early morning convection has cleared the area, and it
appears that we will be seeing an extended lull in significant
precip, until stronger deep layer synoptic-scale forcing overspreads
the area late this afternoon and evening. Still, low levels will
remain moist, and there will be an increasing low level S/SE upslope
flow throughout the late morning and afternoon, so slight to low
chance pops will be maintained into the early PM.

As far as the potential for severe storms, the latest output from
mesoscale model guidance regarding the next wave of widespread
precip in the late-afternoon/early paints a pretty similar scenario
to this morning`s activity in that the stronger convective elements
tend to remain in the more unstable air to our south. In fact, the
latest HRRR really doesn`t develop anything scary-looking
convective-wise in our forecast area until mid/late evening, when
triple-point surface low approaches from central GA. The primary
sticking point as usual is how fast and how far north the wedge
boundary will push ahead of the stronger lift. So far, (as usual)
short term guidance has been too eager to erode the wedge along the
periphery of the CWA, and it remains quite uncertain as to how far
north the boundary will push later today. With extreme levels of
low-level shear and SRH expected, it won`t take much in the way of
surface-based buoyancy to produce a threat for high shear/low CAPE
severe convection producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes,
with the highest threat being along and south of the I-85

There will again be break late in the evening as the storms move
east of the area. However, showers move back in from the west as the
upper low slides across the area. Do not expect any severe storms
with the convection after midnight. Highs today and lows tonight
will be well above normal, but the lows will be cooler than the past
several days.


As of 200 AM EST Sunday:  The short term fcst period initializes on
Monday morning highlighted by the remnant closed H5 low migrating
slowly east atop the Southern Appalachians into Central NC/VA,
while broad ridging builds to the west across the Rockies.  At the
surface, a leading cold frontal axis pushes into Southern VA while
llv flow is slow to veer wly in its wake across Northeast GA and
the Western Carolinas, as surface ridging builds beneath the upper
ridge out west.  Large scale synoptic ascent directly beneath, and
on the eastern flank of the closed H5 cyclone will aid any shower
development through the morning hours, mainly across GA and the
extreme Western Carolinas.  Furthermore, guidance favors increasing
elevated instability into the afternoon hours eastward into the
Fthills/Piedmont region as the upper low transitions northeast and
temperatures cool aloft.  With that, the aforementioned showers are
expected to progress into the Piedmont by mid afternoon, possibly
with a few embedded thunderstorms.  By that time, NVA behind the
departing low will warrant lowering pops across Northeast GA and
the Upstate, while pops look to remain elevated across the high
terrain of GA/SC/NC given increasing CAA thanks to strong H85 winds
on the order of around 40-50kts promoting moist upsloping along
TN line.  Thermal profiles will cool from the top down, likely to
levels supportive of high elevation snowfall into Tuesday morning.
In addition, the above mentioned llv flow will transition from
south to north as the upper cyclone pulls away, thus expecting
rather gusty perhaps advisory level winds for the higher elevations,
while marginal downsloping of said flow into the low terrain will
aid drying and yield slightly weaker yet still gusty conditions into
midday Tuesday.  Beyond that point, the fcst will dry out as upper
ridging aids high pressure development/persistence at the surface,
lasting through the remainder of the period into Wednesday morning.
Overall any above noted snowfall accumulations via a brief nwfs
regime should remain at around an inch or less.  Lastly, as a
testament to how weak the surface cold front is expected to be,
temperatures on Monday are fcst to top out around a category above
normal, while downsloping flow on Tuesday will promote temperatures
around 2 categories above normal.


As of 255 AM Sunday...for the period Wednesday morning through
Saturday.  The upper level ridge moves off the Atlantic coast Wed
morning as the broad upper trough over the nations mid section moves
east across the Mississippi Valley. This upper trough slides east
through the end of the week with thickness values lowering each day.
This will coincide with temperatures going from roughly 15 degrees
above normal Wednesday to around 5 degrees below normal Saturday.
The broad trough will create a zonal west to east 500mb flow from
New mexico to the Carolinas Friday.

At the surface, the cold front will be crossing Tennessee Wednesday
morning, crossing our area late Wed and Wed night then reaching the
Carolina coast by Thursday morning. Moisture will be somewhat
limited along the front as flow off the Gulf will be rather weak.
Northwest flow will become persistent from near the Great Lakes
Thursday into the start of the weekend. This will result in mountain
snow showers mainly along the Tennessee and NC border areas for
roughly a couple days. Even the ECMWF is leaning more toward the GFS
forecast with this NW Flow. The GFS has the NW Flow snow showers
starting Thursday evening, continuing through Friday then breaking
down and ending Saturday. The EC has the NW Flow Friday but at least
it now strongly hints at this weather feature. Also of note, low
instability of 30 to 40 CAPE over eastern TN early Thursday night
would enhance snow rates a bit. Most of the snow will be late
Thursday night in the higher elevations along the TN and NC border.
Snow amounts were derived from QPF through Thursday night.
Confidence decreases by late Friday into Saturday as to whether it
will happen or dissipate earlier.


At KCLT and Elsewhere: Abundant low level moisture will keep mainly
IFR to LIFR ceilings in place through much of the period, with LIFR
to IFR VSBY trending upward as the first round of showers moves east
of the area. Another round of convection moves into the area from
the west this afternoon and continues through the evening. Showers
linger overnight. Cigs will likely improve during the break between
convection. IFR likely to continue, but MVFR is possible. Winds will
toggle between S to ESE as after the first round of showers moves
through. Gusty S to SE wind develops with the second round. Gusty SW
winds continue behind the second round, becoming lighter through the
night. LIFR conditions expected after midnight.

Outlook: The very unsettled pattern will continue through Monday as
the upper low pressure system moves slowly east of the area. This
may allow periods of rain and/or restrictions to continue. Expect
gradual improvement by Tuesday but with moisture returning ahead of
the next cold front Wednesday into Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       Med   71%     Med   70%     Med   60%     Low   48%
KGSP       Med   75%     Med   76%     Low   50%     Med   78%
KAVL       Med   77%     High  85%     Med   68%     Med   78%
KHKY       High  86%     High  81%     Med   75%     Med   72%
KGMU       Med   76%     Med   76%     Low   54%     Med   78%
KAND       High  82%     Med   70%     Low   53%     Med   70%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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