Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 280749
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH
MIDWEEK LEADING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN ALOFT WHILE SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SPREADS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  LINE OF
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AS EXPECTED.  THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPILLING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  EXTREME NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES EAST/WEST ORIENTED BAND OF
CATEGORICAL POPS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE.
POPS WILL TAPER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS THE FRONT SLIDES IN AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD.

FORECAST WILL REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN AMONGST NW FLOW ALOFT AND LIFTS MECHANICALLY.  TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS
EXPERIENCING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30MPH...WHILE 15-20MPH GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT SUFFER MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.  AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
LOWS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM...DEEP ERN CONUS TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT DOES FLATTEN SLIGHTLY BY THE END. A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATE THRU THE TROF AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PERIOD KEEPING A WEAK ELY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED UPSLOPE DIURNAL
SHRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THICKNESSES DROP DRAMATICALLY IN THE
COOLER AIR MASS LEADING TO HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY AND LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM...DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE DEEP ERN
CONUS TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THU...THEN TROF AXIS RETROGRADES THRU
THE WEEKEND RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE AREA THRU
THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL RIDE UP THE
FRONT AS WELL. A MOIST LOW LEVEL S TO SELY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO THESE SYSTEMS BRINGING AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BOUNCE AROUND THRU THE
PERIOD REMAINING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN REMAINING ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  LINE
OF CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE PIEDMONT
WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER...IMPACTING THE AIRFIELD WITHIN NEXT
HOUR.  THUS WILL CARRY ONE HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR TSRA AND LOW
VFR CIGS.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE PASSING LINE WITH
WINDS/CLOUDS DECREASING FOR THE MORNING.  EXPECTING GUSTY NW WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THEREFORE INCLUDED G20KT MENTION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMIDST FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS AND SCT HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS.  GUSTING SHOULD SUBSIDE BY AROUND 00Z LEADING TO PREVAILING
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE 7KTS RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL WHERE BRIEF MENTION OF MVFR LEVEL CIGS IS
INCLUDED AROUND DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE...LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NC
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER AS TO
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER TSRA...HOWEVER DECIDED TO INCLUDE
TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE SC SITES TO BE SAFE...WITH SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES AT EACH LOCATION.  BEYOND THAT...EXPECTING SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THUS
INCLUDED GUST MENTION AMIDST NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AT ALL LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AS TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH ONLY POSSIBLE RESTRICITONS BEING MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG/STRATUS.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW
RETURNS LEADING TO IMPROVING PRECIPITATION/FOG/STRATUS CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  86%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG






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