Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 171739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1239 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warming trend continues as southerly flow returns to the area
underneath a strong ridge of high pressure. A weak upper low will
cross the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas over the weekend, bringing
chances for light rainfall to the area. Another upper low will move
across the Gulf Coast mid to late next week with another round of
light rainfall possible. High temperatures will stay 10 to 15
degrees above normal through the period.


As of 1235 PM EST: Clear sky through the rest of the daytime
hours. Temp trend running a bit behind the fcst, but will not
give up on high temps based on models recent performance of
being too cool. MOS guidance has been notoriously cool on these
good insolation days with some measure of 850 mb westerly
downsloping and general southwest low level return flow. Will
keep maxes some 3 to 4 degrees above MOS throughout, which will
be some 15 degrees or so above climo.

Otherwise...the H5 ridge axis will progress eastward tonight as the
TX low pressure system continues to open up and lift east over the
Mississippi River Valley. Any deeper returning moisture ahead of
this system should remain southwest of the forecast area through
daybreak Saturday. Min temperatures should rebound 1 to 2 categories
over Friday morning mins as mid and high level clouds return
overnight from the southwest.


At 200 AM EST Friday...An upper level trof approaches the SE states
Sat. Good agreement is had btw the models with the timing and
placement of the stronger vort lobes, which look to cross south of
the FA. Mid-level difl does increase over the FA however and this
forcing along with sw/ly mech lift will be the main drivers for
precip...mainly across the wrn zones. Not expecting deep showers nor
tstms as instability remains quite low due to fairly low sfc td/s
and warm mid levels. The column moistens up throughout the day, but
enuf insol shud be had by the afternoon along with continued sw/ly
flow to generate max temps about 10 degrees above normal. The trof
axis shifts east early Sun and enuf model support is had for the
continuation of weak nw flow -shra till daybreak. Strong ridging
develops quickly to the west and a well defined subs inversion
lowers across the area. Low-level winds will shift west to nw/ly
during the day...however no sigfnt airmass change will occur to
offset max temps reaching the L70s non/mtns and M60s mtn valleys.
Mins will remain about 10 degrees above normal each morning as well.


As of 130 AM EST Friday:  Medium range starting Monday morning with
a huge upper ridge axis extending from Florida to the western part
of Hudson Bay in Canada.  A surface high centered over Quebec moves
east with flow into our region from the Atlantic coming up against
the southern Appalachians which will at times produce some upslope
enhanced showers. All models keep our area mostly dry at least until
Wednesday. The GFS then brings in some rain as a wave on the back
side of the flattening ridge crosses TN and dissipates as it gets to
the western Carolinas.  The closed 500mb low over the Texas coast
early Tuesday moves east and weakens possibly even opening up (on
the GFS) as it crosses Florida Thursday into Friday. The result of
all considered models and their general agreement is slight to low
chance POPs in the Wed to Thursday night timeframe.  As mentioned
before, even though this is still winter, we will be way too warm to
have any precip other than rain. The southern stream low which opens
up into a wave will move east of Florida Thursday night with weak
high pressure controlling our weather until another closed upper low
crosses the Mississippi Valley with preceding cold front getting to
our region next weekend.

Temperatures will be about 15 degrees above normal Monday through
Wednesday then slightly cooler only 10 to 15 degrees above normal
Thursday as the ridge breaks down with more cloudiness.


At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period. Clear sky through the
end of evening ops, with SW wind this afternoon going light at
sunset. An upper wave will approach the region tonight with
increasing high to mid-level cloudiness toward morning on Saturday.
Wind at KCLT might go light from the WNW before daybreak because of
drainage, but should return to light SW by mid-morning. Low clouds
will invade from the W around midday, but bases should remain above
050 for the most part. Think light precip chance will remain to the
west through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Spotty showers may move through the region Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, but with the chance of restrictions
highly questionable. After that, expect dry and VFR conditions
through early next week. Another system may affect the region
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Max temperatures have been raised about 3 degrees above MOS in most
areas for this afternoon, while dewpoints have been dried out a bit
during the period of best mixing. This will lead to plenty of
afternoon RH values in the upper teens and lower 20s. Given the dry
air and fuels, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for northeast
Georgia with several hours of RH in the 20 to 25 percent range and
fuel moistures below 8 percent.


GA...Fire Danger Statement until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-


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