Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 220244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The upper level ridge that has brought such hot weather to our
region of the nation will gradually break down over the weekend as
an upper level trough develops over the eastern part of the country.
Expect temperatures to be a little cooler next week with better
chances for rain.


As of 1030 PM EDT Friday: Grids still look good for the late evening
update, so other than trending in recent obs, no changes.

Chance of convection increases some Saturday as the atmosphere
moistens ahead of a weak boundary dropping toward the area. Again,
the best chance will be across the mountains but with a better
chance across the foothills than recent days. Moderate instability
expected once again although with continued meager lapse rates. Mid
level dry air and DCAPE values will not be as great as previous
days, but will be high enough to keep the potential for isolated
damaging downbursts in place. Hot and humid conditions continue as
well. There may be less mixing than previous days, but still expect
a nearly normal diurnal trend to dew points. This should keep heat
index values below 105 but above 100. Will not issue a heat advisory
at this time, but one may be needed if dew points don`t mix as


As of 200 PM Fri: The pattern will change little Saturday night
into early Sunday. Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will exist over our
area, and decent lapse rates will persist just above the boundary
layer. The GFS and SREF expect some convection will continue
overnight in the mountains in response to these conditions, but
the opnl NAM is dry. The forcing however just looks too weak to
expect convective initiation. PoPs thus wane and fall below the
mentionable threshold in all zones.

Heights fall slightly thru Sunday as a shortwave moves across the
northern Great Lakes. The associated cold front should remain to
our north and west during the day, but slightly higher convective
chances are warranted with slightly higher dewpoints and the
potential for activity to propagate off of the front and south into
the area. With somewhat increased shear and the focusing mechanism,
last night SPC included our northern zones in a marginal risk on Day
3. Damaging outflows and perhaps marginally severe hail are within
reason. Max temps should be 2-3 degrees cooler owing to the reduced
thickness and more cloud cover. This will mitigate any excessive
heat concerns that could otherwise arise with the juicier dewpoints.

Some guidance, namely NAM, expects that as the front sags
further south Sunday night, additional rounds of convection could
develop. Hence PoPs will be kept at slight chance or better into
morning. Whatever is left of the frontal boundary appears to wash
out over the area Monday; temps and dewpoints will top out another
degree or two cooler. Nonetheless models depict similar convective
coverage south of I-40. Shear will be sufficient to expect clusters
of storms producing gusty winds, but at this time it does not look
particularly likely they would be severe.


As of 150 PM Friday: The models show in the 500mb pattern Monday
evening a trough over NY and PA with axis roughly down the
Appalachians. This trough pushes off the New England coast Tuesday
night with the associated cold front lying west to east across TN
and the Carolinas early Tuesday.  This front may even push south
across Georgia Wednesday then linger over our region into late week
as it slowly dissipates. The 06Z run of the GFS had an upper ridge
centered over New Mexico and the TX panhandle having a significant
influence in mid week to the Carolinas.  The new 12Z GFS returns the
suppression of the ridge to the SW and gives the eastern trough the
greatest influence. With the ridge to our west and an upper NW flow
of weather from the top of the ridge to our region, there is the
potential for one or two weakening MCSs to reach our area in the mid
to late week. The dissipating front will provide the focus for
convection each day. Instability should be best on Tuesday
afternoon.  Max temperatures near normal Tuesday and again Friday
but a little below normal Wed and Thursday.  Min Temperatures near
or slightly above normal each day.


At KCLT and elsewhere: No changes to the KCLT TAF for the 03z AMD.
VFR through the period at TAF sites, though typical mountain valley
fog/low stratus can be expected near KAVL, though not anticipating
actual impacts to the site. Another round of afternoon Cu expected
on Saturday with increasing SW winds to 5-10kt in the afternoon.
Kept trend of PROB30 starting at 16z at KAVL, and introduced it at
all other sites except KCLT during the late afternoon.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection will continue into early
next week ahead of an approaching cold front on Monday. Overnight
restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with chance
increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   79%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




SHORT TERM...Wimberley
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