Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 260742
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE
THIS WEEK... MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS A BERMUDA HIGH
REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. SKY WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCT WITH STEADY NE WINDS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW AS LOW AS .8 INCHES...WITH MOISTURE
LIMITED TO AROUND 4 KFT AND CIRRUS LEVEL. I WILL FORECAST A ZERO
PERCENT CHC OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AT
OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN MONDAY. TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE UNDER DEEP HIGH PRESSURE. THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WED.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...THEN REMAIN 3 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO LOW 60S EAST...OR 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING WITH
REGARD TO THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
MOVES ALONG IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND.
THAT WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO MAKE A RUN FROM THE NORTH...BUT THE NEW
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN KEEPS THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FROM I-40 TO SRN
VA ON THURSDAY. THE NAM WAS THE MOST RESPONSIVE WITH CONVECTION
OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS EXTENDED ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SUFFICE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
SO THE POP WAS REMOVED AFTER 03Z...ASSUMING THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A BERMUDA HIGH TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND. SEE
NOTHING IN THE NEW GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES. WE SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ONE DAY
TO THE NEXT THROUGH SUNDAY AS S/SW FLOW INCREASES AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ATTEMPT TO PUSH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS LOSE TRACK OF ANY
SURFACE FRONT BY MONDAY...HOWEVER...SO NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS
EXPECTED. THE ONLY AFFECT MIGHT BE TO REMOVE THE DIURNAL WEAKENING
OF PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS
THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE...HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TEMPO FROM 9Z-13Z. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. VFR
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT...PRIMARILY CIRRUS SOURCED FROM
WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHERWISE LIGHT TO CALM. KAVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR THE NNW.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WED. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO
GRADUALLY SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  94%     HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED






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