Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 190252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
952 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

A warm front will lift northward over the region on Thursday and
Friday bringing more rain to the area, particularly on Thursday
night. A more significant low pressure system is expected to track
across the region this weekend, bringing rain and thunderstorms for
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. High pressure will build into the
region for the middle of next week.


As of 945 PM EST: Temperatures have cooled off a bit quicker than
forecast along the I-77 corridor in the piedmont of the Carolinas as
the high level clouds topping the sharp ridge have generally thinned
out east of the ridge axis. Mins have been adjusted down a degree in
these areas, as well as sky cover, and hourly temp trends were
accelerated downward as well. Still think that high clouds will
increase, though, overnight.

Otherwise, a surface high center will continue to push eastward over
the Appalachians overnight. Upper ridging downstream of the southern
plains system will persist over the area tonight through tomorrow as
well. Overnight lows will be much more reasonable for January, with
highs Thursday progged to be 10-15 degrees colder than those
observed today across the Piedmont (with not much change, and
actually maybe a slight warming trend for the mountains).

The strong upper low over the southern High Plains will eject
slightly northeast through the near term, with surface low
enhancement along the Texas Gulf Coast. As the upper low lifts into
the Plains, the surface low will correspondingly lift into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. A warm front will lift into the Southeast and
may bring some initial precip into extreme western counties right at
the end of the period.


As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...A long wave upper ridge axis will set
up along the East Coast, while a deep and broad mean upper trough
axis will persist across the Rockies and Plains. Two prominent short
waves will eject out of the trough and cross the CWFA within the
upper level southwesterly flow. The first will cross the area late
Thursday night, and the second during the day on Saturday. The first
wave will bring a warm/occluded front across the area, and will be
accompanied by an area of showers. The high-res models that go out
thru 12z Friday, show the shower activity being fast-moving, with
embedded stronger elements. There may be enough elevated CAPE for
isolated thunder, but no severe weather is expected. Temps will be
above normal Thursday night and Friday, with a lull in PoPs Friday

The second short wave will lift NE across the region on Saturday,
and looks to be accompanied by an activating warm front that will be
draped east to west across the Gulf states. As the wave ejects,
upstream energy will be carving out a vigorous upper low over the
Southern Plains. This will induce rapid cyclogenesis over/near the
TX panhandle. A very large warm sector will become unstable
Saturday, as the warm front lifts north. The NAM and GFS agree on
SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg surging into LA/MS/AL thru the day. This
area will also have plenty of shear with 0-6 km bulk shear of 45-65
kts. It`s still a bit too far out to be certain what mode of
convection will likely fire, but whatever activity develops will
propagate NE toward our NE GA and western Upstate zones Saturday
evening. The Day 4 SPC outlook has a broad 15% area to our SW. This
certainly bears watching in the next couple of model runs and severe
storms mention may be needed in the HWO. PoPs were bumped up to
likely for most of the area on Saturday. Temps will remain well
above normal.


As of 200pm EST Wednesday:  Saturday night through Wednesday night
will be a period of unsettled weather.  GFS and EC agreement is
quite good through next Wednesday with a southern diffluent longwave
trough bringing moisture, showers, and thunderstorms on Sunday,
followed by a short-lived longwave ridge with clearing on Tuesday,
followed by the next progressive southern longwave trough due in by
early or late Thursday, though it could begin to affect the forecast
by Wednesday evening.  EC is about 12 hours ahead of the GFS with
the Thursday longwave, but the basic pattern of 2 longwave troughs
giving the region waves of weather is fairly consistent.
Precipitation Sunday/Monday looks generous with an inch or more
possible each day.  Precip on Sunday occurs with warm frontal
passage and possible thunderstorms, followed by wrap-around precip
and cool frontal passage on Monday.

Sunday afternoon has the best chance for thunderstorms, though the
best CAPE forecast is only around 700 j/kg, with a LI to -5.  Best
instability currently looks to be in the Piedmont areas at this
time, as low surface pressure associated with incoming longwave
brings abundant moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico.  While
instability is currently forecast to be modest, bulk shear is very
healthy at 50 to 65 kts Sunday afternoon, especially with the more
backed winds ahead of the surface low.

Minimum temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the 50s in
Piedmont areas, down to the 40s in the mountains, so there is little
risk of any winter precipitation.  With region far south of any cold
air masses, temperatures generally will be well above normal through
Wednesday, even behind the front that passes through with the
longwave trough on Monday.  Passage of that front will make Tuesday
the coolest day of the extended forecast, but still 10 degrees above

Surface winds will also be elevated with the passage of the storm
system Sunday and Monday, with 10 to 15 mph of southerly winds on
Sunday/Monday, becoming northwesterly behind the frontal passage on


At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period as a ridge downstream of the prominent closed low over the
plains sharpens overhead. Expect increasing mid and high clouds
through the period as moisture spills over the ridge axis, but with
all VFR cigs expected. Winds should initialize mainly from the north
as surface high pressure moves over to the north of the region, with
flow becoming light NE overnight, except variable at KAVL and KHKY.
Expect an adjustment toward southerly through the day Thursday, with
the wind shift impacting KCLT around 18Z.

Outlook: Surface low pressure approaching from the southwest will
bring chances for widespread rain showers to the area Thursday night
and Friday. Yet another cold front will bring additional chances of
showers and restrictions on Sunday and Monday.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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