Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 301724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
124 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

A typical mid-summer weekend is on tap for the region as a broad and
weak pressure pattern lingers atop the Southeast. Little change in
the weather pattern is expected through the start of next week.


As of 1030 AM Saturday: Made several adjustments mainly to sky and
pop grids to account for continued midlevel cloudiness moving across
the Piedmont. Still seeing some returns across the Upstate with
these clouds but mostly virga at this time. An area of convection
that has moved across eastern TN is right on our border so have
adjust pops across the mountains to account for this. Additionally,
another area (actually it`s all along the same impulse) in northern
GA is producing some showers downstream into NE GA. The cloud cover
has held temps down a little more than expected but with afternoon
mixing/clearing the overall high temps should catch up. Made tweaks
to hourly trends with some minor changes to afternoon highs but
changes are mainly negligible.

Otherwise, a broad, yet medium amplitude H5 trof continues to dig
across the east/central CONUS, while the persistent anticyclone that
has been responsible for many dry/hot days over the southeast
flattens. At the surface over the southeast, weak high pressure
looks to prevail overall, however with embedded lee troffing over
portions of Northeast GA and the western Carolinas.

Thermal profiles once again exhibit modest low/mid lvl lapse
rates beneath poor rates in the mid/upper levels, while shear is
slightly improved from days past thanks improved flow amidst the
synoptic trof.  Given these parameters, as well as an analysis
of Cam composites, the fcst will feature a broad brush of
isolated/scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, likely initiating
along the Blue Ridge before cold pool propagation directs said
convection east into the NC/SC piedmont.  Given the poor lapse
rates aloft, not expecting any severe convection, however a few
stronger storms cannot be ruled out.  Pops will lower through the
evening into the overnight, however lingering at low end slight
chance levels regionwide through Sunday morning.  Temperatures today
will once again be quite warm, generally mid/upper 90s along/south
of I85, with upper 80s to lower 90s across the northern piedmont
and foothills, and upper 70s to mid 80s favored over the higher
elevations.  Dewpoints are expected to mix out a bit into the
afternoon, however remaining at levels supportive of heat indices
nearing the century mark across the southern tier of the fcst area.


As of 155 AM upper trough axis moves into the area
Sunday and remains in place on Monday. A series of weak short waves
will rotate through the trough and over or near the area each day.
At the surface, a weak cold front moves toward the area Sunday with
a lee trough developing over the CWFA. The front drops into the area
for Monday. All this should lead to a relatively good environment
for deep convection both days. Therefore, precip chances will be
higher then climo, but with a fairly typical diurnal and placement
trend. Cannot rule out a few strong/severe storms both days, but
poor lapse rates, low shear, and relatively weak DCAPE suggest
chances are low. Temps will remain above normal with low to mid 90s
common both days. Humidity will be high enough for heat index values
to rise into the low 100 range, mainly south of I-85.


As of 320 AM Saturday...upper trough axis over the East Coast on
Tuesday slides off shore on Wednesday as ridging builds over the
central CONUS. This keeps a NW flow over the area through Thursday
allowing a series of short waves to move through the flow and over
or near the CWFA. Differences develop in the guidance by Friday,
with the ECMWF showing short wave ridging developing over the area,
while the GFS develops a weak short wave trough. A quasi-stationary
front remains over the area Tuesday and Wednesday keeping a chance
of diurnal convection over the CWFA each day. Tuesday is the drier
of the two days with only isolated convection expected. The front
washes out Thursday but southerly low level flow develops and
continues into Friday. This keeps moisture and instability over the
area, resulting in continued scattered mainly diurnal convection
each day. Temps remain above normal through the period, but do drop
toward normal for Thursday.


At KCLT: Convection has developed across the area and VCSH with
TEMPO -TSRA from 19-23z still looks good. Added the VRB10G20KT to
the TAF to account for sub-severe microburst potential with
collapsing thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR through the period with
mainly SCT mid-level clouds. Winds should favor SW around 5kt, with
slightly lower speeds overnight. Will likely need to introduce
PROB30 -TSRA for Sunday afternoon with the next TAF set, as best
chances are after 18z.

Elsewhere: Trends very similar to that of KCLT above, though the
only TEMPO TSRA currently is at KAVL with VCTS elsewhere. Will AMD
as necessary if/when convection gets closer to the terminals.
Introduced PROB30 TSRA starting 16z Sunday for KAVL and like KCLT
will likely need to add to other sites with next issuance. Expect
some morning MVFR fog at KHKY and KAVL. May need to add TEMPO for
potential IFR with later TAF issuances.

Outlook: Typical summertime pattern in place with afternoon TSRA
expected each day, as well as potential for early morning
restrictions especially in the mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   57%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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