Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 310725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
225 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Some SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across SRN and SERN sections of the CWA
early this morning...activity continuing along the base of a weak
upper level shortwave moving over the state. Expect this
convective activity to continue to lift slowly ENE through the
rest of the morning...with best pops forecast for the SERN third
to half of the CWA. Do think there will be a lull in the
scattered/widespread activity across portions of the CWA this
afternoon...with more isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA
developing in the afternoon heat as the upper shortwave will have
moved east of the area. As a result...have slightly lower pops for
this afternoon.

By later today into the overnight period...flow aloft will becomemore
persistently from the SW...with additional upper disturbances
lifting NE over the state. AS a result...do increase pops across
the CWA...especially for WRN sections. This trend will continue
through Wed into Wed night as a cold front slowly approaches from
the NW. Looks like best pops beyond this morning...will be Wed
afternoon and evening.

As for SVR WX potential...high levels of instability will be seen
during the afternoon hrs each day...but overall synoptic scale
forcing will be limited. As a result...the threat for SVR WX will
be isolated in nature. Given a bit more coverage expected for Wed
into Wed night...there could be more potential for SVR WX to wrap
up the short term period. Expect large hail and damaging winds as
the primary threats with the strongest storms. Some locally heavy
rainfall could also be seen.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Frontal boundary approaching form the NW will become stalled over
the region by the weekend. At the same time, persistent cutoff
upper low will remain in the vicinity of east Texas. These systems
will keep a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
region.

By the latter part of the weekend, ridging over the gulf will relax a
bit, allowing the upper low to sink southward, and in turn the
frontal boundary will move further south, with rain chances
decreasing.

Through the long term periods, the threat of any severe
thunderstorms is low, due to much of the area being on the cool side
of the front. Stronger storms, however, could produce localize heavy
rainfall. However, this threat is not expected to be widespread
either.

Below average temperatures will persist through the period, with the
expected cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  65  82  65 /  40  40  60  60
Camden AR         89  68  86  67 /  30  30  40  60
Harrison AR       80  63  76  60 /  40  60  60  50
Hot Springs AR    86  67  82  66 /  30  40  60  60
Little Rock   AR  87  69  86  68 /  30  40  50  60
Monticello AR     89  70  87  69 /  30  30  30  50
Mount Ida AR      85  65  81  64 /  40  50  60  60
Mountain Home AR  81  64  79  62 /  40  50  60  50
Newport AR        84  67  84  66 /  30  30  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     87  69  86  68 /  30  30  40  50
Russellville AR   85  67  81  65 /  40  50  60  60
Searcy AR         85  66  85  66 /  30  40  50  60
Stuttgart AR      87  69  87  68 /  30  30  40  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57



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