Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016


Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.



As expected, some MVFR clouds are developing over the terrain of
western Arkansas. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KHOT and
KADF this morning. May see FEW-SCT015 bases at KLIT as well but
confidence in their being legitimate ceilings there is lower so
did not include that. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail
through the period. South-southwest winds will be gusty at KHRO
today and may even see a few gusts into the mid teens at KLIT as
well. Light to near-calm winds are expected at most sites after
04z-06z tonight.



SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday night

Not a very active short term period, but there are a couple of
items to talk about. A broad upper ridge is centered from the
central Gulf Coast north through Appalachian Mountains this
morning, while an upper trough resides over southern Saskatchewan
province and Northern Rockies. This pattern will for the most part
hold steady today and into Thursday, though the Canadian trough
will move east towards the Great Lakes by Thursday
evening...weakening the ridge over the Gulf Coast as it does so.

In Arkansas the resulting southwest upper flow, and southerly
surface flow, will produce more summer-like weather today and
Thursday. Dewpoints at 3 am this morning were in the low to mid
70s throughout the forecast area, and expect low temperatures
around daybreak to be only in the mid 70s. The ridge will be
sufficiently strong to produce low to possibly mid 90s for highs
today. This will push afternoon heat index values up to/slightly
over 100 degrees in many places, but suspect conditions will
largely remain below any heat advisory criteria so we will forego
headlines at this point. Generally speaking, dry conditions are
expected today. But with the ridge weakening on Thursday,
scattered afternoon convection will almost certainly develop. Have
some low chance PoPs over southern counties to account for this,
with slight chances further north. Convection will be diurnally
driven and should die off quickly after sunset Thursday evening
for a relatively quiet night Thursday night.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

The extended forecast will start with start with the center of the
upper high pressure ridge off to the east of AR, with a southwest
flow into AR. This will bring some upper level energy and help
develop convection on Friday. Also a weak frontal boundary may be
stall over northern AR. On Saturday, the weak front lifts more
northeast, as most of the energy lifts also to the northeast.
Overall highest chances of rain do move to the northeast. On Sunday,
the overall chance of rain lowers as the boundary lifts out of AR,
and the upper high pressure ridge builds a bit back into the eastern
plains and suppresses chances of convection. On Monday and Tuesday.
a lower chance of rain is seen, as the upper high pressure ridge
keeps its influence into the region. Overall rain amounts are
expected to remain in normal levels. Temperatures are expected to be
around normal to a bit below due to clouds and rain chances. HIghs
from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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