Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210828
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

The upper-level ridge will build over the next few days with 500mb
heights progged to top out around 590dam. A weak mid-level low is
embedded within the ridge just south of the area but is forecast
to drift south over the next day or two. Strong subsidence aloft
will provide mostly sunny conditions outside of some passing high
clouds and will help squash rain chances. Although a stray shower
is not out of the question this afternoon, generally hot and
humid conditions will prevail. A persistence forecast is in order
through Friday with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and
overnight lows near 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Night

The ridge is forecast to shift north and east over the Great Lakes
this weekend, although its influence will continue to be felt
across The Natural State. An upper-level low will be moving slowly
west on the southern periphery of the anticyclone and may enhance
rain chances slightly Saturday and Sunday. These rain chances
will still remain on the low side and will generally be confined
to the eastern half of AR. Otherwise, expect hot and humid
conditions to continue. The lowering mid-level heights should
facilitate a slight cool-down by Sunday, and by slight we`re only
talking a few degrees. Highs are still expected to be in the
ballpark of 90 degrees over the weekend.

The global models indicate a strong trough digging over the
western CONUS this weekend, moving slowly east near Continental
Divide on Sunday. The blocking "high over low" pattern over the
eastern CONUS will keep the trough to the west through Monday, but
the ridge quickly breaks down Tuesday. The aforementioned
westerly moving upper-low will be in the vicinity Monday and
chance PoPs are in order across portions of the CWA. However, on
Tuesday, this feature is progged to catch a ride in the
westerlies, limiting rain chances to diurnal forcing alone.
Synoptic scale forcing will increase by midweek as the trough
begins to slide east over the southward retreating ridge. This
will increase rain chances on Wednesday. Temperatures will trend
back toward climo early next week, meaning highs will be in the
mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  70  93  69 /  10   0  20   0
Camden AR         93  71  94  70 /  10   0  10   0
Harrison AR       91  69  91  66 /  10   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    93  72  92  70 /  10   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  92  72  92  71 /  10   0  10   0
Monticello AR     90  72  91  71 /  10   0  20  10
Mount Ida AR      91  70  91  68 /  10   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  92  69  92  67 /  10   0  10   0
Newport AR        92  70  92  69 /  10   0  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  71  91  70 /  10   0  20   0
Russellville AR   91  72  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Searcy AR         93  70  92  69 /  10   0  20   0
Stuttgart AR      92  72  92  70 /  10   0  20   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

Short/Long Term...Johnson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.