Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 241901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY TO MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AR.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND WILL AGAIN INCLUDE SOME
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE
UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS WERE WARMING
TODAY INTO THE 60S AND MAINLY 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO AR AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND ISOLATED NORMAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL NO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DELINEATE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER AR THEN
SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND A S TO SW WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO SOME 60S. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
MOVE EAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD AR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO APPROACHES THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LITTLE MORE QPF ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED IN SPITE OF
THE NEW EURO BLOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER. SINCE THIS IS
THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS INCREASED SPEED...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.

PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO THE FLORIDA HIGH.
MODELS NOW SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN THAT POPS WILL NEED
TO BE BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
TO THE NORTH BUT A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN HERE. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MEX
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         52  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     53  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        54  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     52  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      53  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56





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