Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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000 FXUS64 KLZK 100245 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 845 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH A LITTLE TWEAKING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AT KHRO AND KBPK THIS EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE BUT THEN THINNING BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH VISIBILITY OF 4SM TO 6SM WITH FOG. ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 22 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. (59) PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH/EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY SNOW LINGERS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND WILL SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MAINLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FROM LITTLE ROCK SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY...WITH ANY SNOW ENDING AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GFS NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLIER ECMWF FORECASTS...BRINGING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME...MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. I AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT I WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT CHC POPS IN THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH RAPIDLY...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 16 32 19 34 / 10 0 10 10 CAMDEN AR 24 41 27 40 / 0 0 10 30 HARRISON AR 15 32 20 35 / 10 0 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 19 36 25 37 / 0 0 10 30 LITTLE ROCK AR 17 35 23 35 / 0 0 10 20 MONTICELLO AR 23 41 26 40 / 0 0 10 30 MOUNT IDA AR 19 37 25 37 / 0 0 10 30 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 15 32 19 35 / 10 0 10 10 NEWPORT AR 17 32 19 33 / 10 0 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 21 37 25 38 / 0 0 10 20 RUSSELLVILLE AR 15 35 23 36 / 10 0 10 20 SEARCY AR 17 34 21 34 / 10 0 10 10 STUTTGART AR 19 35 23 36 / 0 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 51