Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 021934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  82  69  82 /  70  60  50  50
CAMDEN AR         76  87  73  85 /  50  50  50  60
HARRISON AR       67  80  66  81 /  50  60  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  83  70  83 /  60  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  84  70  83 /  70  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     76  87  74  84 /  60  60  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      74  82  69  83 /  70  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  80  67  82 /  50  60  40  50
NEWPORT AR        71  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  71  83 /  60  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  83  69  83 /  70  60  60  50
SEARCY AR         72  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
STUTTGART AR      73  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...65








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