Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 011136
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG IS BEING NOTED ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR AND IFR BEING OBSERVED.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TAF SITES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE
PRECIP BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AFTER 00Z. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END BEFORE 12Z AT MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
QUITE A MESSY SURFACE PATTERN THIS MORNING...AS THERE ARE SEVERAL
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AROUND THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

OOZ UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK OPEN WAVE INVOF WEST TEXAS...
AND ITS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN...AND INTERACTS WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE PROBABILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
ONE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE CLOUD COVER INHIBITING SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND MAY STALL
INITIALLY...BUT SHOULD PICK UP MOMENTUM ON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THE LOW AND
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THERE WILL BE A TORNADO RISK...WHICH WILL
BE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH THE GFS AND
EURO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY...BUT FROM THERE THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT. THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  62  76  61 /  40  40  40  60
CAMDEN AR         80  63  81  65 /  40  30  30  20
HARRISON AR       74  60  73  57 /  40  30  40  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  62  77  64 /  40  30  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  78  64 /  40  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     79  63  80  66 /  40  30  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      76  62  76  64 /  40  30  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  60  74  58 /  40  30  40  70
NEWPORT AR        75  62  76  62 /  40  40  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     79  62  79  65 /  40  30  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  76  62 /  40  30  30  50
SEARCY AR         75  61  77  63 /  40  40  30  40
STUTTGART AR      77  62  78  64 /  40  30  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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