Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290925
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
425 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night

Cold front was situated acrs SRN AR early this mrng, vcnty of a line
fm KPBF-KADF-KDEQ. Scattered convection has been noted along the
bndry overnight as well. Temps ahead of the fnt were in the lower
70s, with upper 50s to upper 60s noted to the north.

Pressure rises behind the front ovr the last 3 to 6 hours indicate
that the bndry wl struggle to make much progress to the SE today.
Thus, have kept SCTD POPS in the fcst for locations along and S of
the fnt today, with dry conds noted elsewhere. The fnt wl meander
ovr SERN AR thru tngt. Models do show another weak fnt dropping SWD
toward N AR by early tngt. However, data suggests any rain along the
fnt wl dissipate arnd sunset and not affect the FA.

The overall flow pattern aloft acrs the region wl transition fm
zonal to more NWLY heading into Tue, as an upper low moves into the
Great Lakes region. A new upper impulse/weak fnt wl drop SEWD into
AR later Tue/Tue night, bringing small chcs of SHRA/TSRA to mainly N
AR.
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

An upper level trough will be over the Great Lakes Region at the
start of the long term period...with a ridge located over the
Rockies. A stalling SFC front will remain north of AR across
MO...with some slight to low end chance POPs mentioned across NRN AR
in closer proximity to this front. Further south...POPs will be
generally slight chances as mainly diurnally driven convection will
be possible on Wed. With the loss of daytime heating...have
decreasing POPs Wed night.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will become possible on Thu as a slow moving
upper level shortwave trough lifts E/NE over the region. While
precip chances will be elevated from Thu into the weekend due to
this upper level wave...keep POPs mainly in the chance category as
major forcing mechanisms will be limited other than this weak upper
level disturbance. With this nearly summer-like pattern in
place...will also seen near normal or just above normal temps during
the period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...62


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