Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230501
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1101 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Upper level low pressure over northeast Missouri will continue to
move east through the period. Moisture wrapping around the low
will keep lower clouds in place for KBPK and KHRO into Tuesday
morning. Ceilings will remain VFR but on the low end across the
north with mainly clear conditions elsewhere. West winds will
remain gusty across the north in the vicinity of the upper low
through most of the period but are much lighter for the remainder
of the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 903 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018)
UPDATE...
Upper low located over northeast Missouri continues to move to the
east/northeast at this time. Moisture is still wrapping around the
center of circulation with low clouds covering the northern third
of the state.

Radar has been indicating some possible flurries or even some ice
pellets across southern Missouri but the past several hours but
returns continue to decrease as the upper low pulls out. Still
can not rule out a few flurries over the next few hours across the
north.

Otherwise current forecast looks on track and other than a few
minor tweaks for current conditions and trends, forecast has been
largely left intact.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 550 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018)
AVIATION...

Upper level low pressure will continue to move across central
Missouri this evening with moisture sweeping around the departing
low. Ceilings will remain VFR but on the low side and may
actually briefly become MVFR for the northern terminals. The
remainder of the terminals will be VFR. West to northwest winds
will remain gusty across the north in the vicinity of the upper
low through the period but will gradually decrease with time for
the remainder of the TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 246 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

The parent upper level low that supported severe weather last
night and the associated surface low located north of Arkansas
continue to slowly make their way east this afternoon, and will
continue to lift north toward the Great Lakes Region. With the
surface pressure gradient so compact, strong winds have been
noted statewide with peak gusts approaching 40 mph at times.

As the upper low continues to slide northeast, widespread cloud
cover will swing around and will be in place across the northern
third to half of the state through the overnight hours. With the
center of the upper low expected to pass over central Missouri, a
few sprinkles or flurries wouldn`t be completely out of the
question along the Missouri border later this evening. Some light
returns have been noted on area radars across central and eastern
Kansas this afternoon.

By Tuesday and into Wednesday, high pressure will build in at the
surface over Arkansas and dry conditions will be in place. Aloft,
northwesterly flow will remain in place. A weak shortwave will make
its way across northern AR on Wednesday, with perhaps a few clouds
possible but no rain expected. Temperatures will be near normal
for this time of year through the short term period.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

Low pressure will drag a cold front toward the region late in the
week. Good moisture return will precede the front, with temperatures
warming into the upper 50s and lower 60s, and showers developing by
late Friday. Front will move through the region late Friday into
Saturday. Precip will come to an end late Saturday night or early
Sunday. Colder airmass will follow the front, but with upper flow
quasi-northwesterly to quasi-zonal, the cooldown shouldn`t be
significant. Either way, temperatures will be a little above
seasonal average through Saturday, then end the period near or
slightly below average Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56


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