RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
000 FXUS64 KLZK 210845 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR. MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST... BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 60 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10 CAMDEN AR 62 45 66 44 / 40 30 10 10 HARRISON AR 60 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 61 43 65 44 / 30 20 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 61 44 64 44 / 30 20 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 62 46 65 43 / 50 40 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 61 42 65 44 / 30 20 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 42 62 44 / 20 10 10 10 NEWPORT AR 60 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 61 45 64 43 / 30 30 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10 SEARCY AR 60 44 62 44 / 30 20 10 10 STUTTGART AR 61 45 63 43 / 40 30 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
