Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 050527
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID MORNING
CUMULUS FIELD AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  83  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  80  60  79 /  10  40  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  64  82 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  80  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  80  61  81 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        60  84  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  82  62  82 /  10  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         59  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





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