Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
141 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OF AR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON WED. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF AR THE
POINTS FURTHER EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE LZK CWA DRY AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LATEST MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY REAL SURPRISES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A BLOCKING PATTERN EARLY ON THAT
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH DEEP TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN WILL BE A SPRAWLING UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN BLOCKING MODE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY TICKING UP
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH.

WESTERN LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEING
INTRODUCED. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BUT NOTHING OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH BUT DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  75  47  72 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  78  51  76 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       47  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  77  50  74 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     50  77  52  73 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  77  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  73  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        49  75  46  71 /   0  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     50  77  50  73 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  77  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  76  47  73 /   0  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  76  48  72 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56



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