Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231937
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
237 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday...
The forecast area will remain on the northwest side of an upper
level ridge centered over the sern US, resulting in a swly flow
aloft. At the surface a high to the east will keep a southerly to
southwesterly flow across the area, with dewpoints remaining quite
high.

The combination of the ridge and the moist airmass will make for
very hot and muggy conditions across the area again. Heat index
values will be getting very close to heat advisory criteria in a
portion of Bradley, Desha, and Drew counties for a brief period of
time tomorrow afternoon. My only hesitation with issuing a heat
advisory is that swly surface winds may push the dewpoint down just
enough to keep values below advisory levels. In any event,
conditions are going to be very uncomfortable across a large portion
of our forecast area tomorrow.

POPs for tonight are not looking too promising at the moment, and
tomorrow looks to be predominantly dry as well. Afternoon convection
looks a bit more likely on Thursday.

&&

.Extended Term...Thursday night through Tuesday...
Upper level ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place to the
east of Arkansas at the start of the long term period. This will
provide swrly flow aloft and several upper level disturbances will
ride the western periphery of the high, which will help initiate
shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area.

Temperatures will be close to normal for the period with daytime
highs roughly in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Fairly humid air will be in place across
the state, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s being fairly
common. Given these dewpoints, heat indices will creep up nearing
dangerous levels in the 100-105 range mainly across the southeast
half of the state.

Near the end of the long term, focus will shift to the Gulf of
Mexico and potential tropical activity impacting the US as the upper
ridge may contract northeastward which would provide a conducive
pattern for any potential systems to enter the eastern Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  75  91  73 /  50  10  10  10
Camden AR         91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
Harrison AR       84  72  89  70 /  50  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    89  74  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  10  10
Monticello AR     92  76  94  77 /  20  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      88  75  91  72 /  20  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  84  73  90  71 /  50  20  10  10
Newport AR        85  74  92  73 /  50  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     90  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
Russellville AR   89  74  93  73 /  30  10  10  10
Searcy AR         88  73  92  73 /  40  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      89  74  92  75 /  30  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...226



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