Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251740
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
AT MOST TAF SITES. FROM 10Z-13Z FQT IFR/OCNL LIFR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND BR. BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z SUNDAY BECOMING VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE REMOVED FOG MENTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE SW TODAY AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN PLAINS WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL
KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS TIME. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28





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