Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 051734 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1134 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR and lower flight conditions expected through the
TAF period. Occasional showers near KLLQ through the afternoon
with more widespread rainfall expected across all terminals later
this evening through overnight. A cold front will make its way
through the state Tuesday morning bringing NW winds with it. Some
FG expected across northern terminals ahead of the front. Drier wx
will be seen by mid morning Tuesday with cloud decks increasing
somewhat.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 605 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016
)

AVIATION...05/12Z TAF CYCLE

Areas of dense fog wl produce IFR/LIFR conds acrs mainly NRN and
parts of W-CNTRL AR thru the mid mrng hrs. FZFG wl also be noted
at KHRO and KBPK this mrng. Conds wl sloly improve at most
locations later this mrng...with VFR/MVFR conds expected the rest
of the day. Areas of rain wl affect mainly SERN AR thru early
aftn...gradually spreading into CNTRL sections this aftn.
Widespread IFR conds wl return areawide tngt. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 400 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016)

Short Term...Today Through Tuesday Night

First off this mrng is the dense fog that has formed overnight acrs
parts of NRN/WRN AR where clouds broke up earlier. Based on VSBY
trends this mrng, went ahead and issued Dense Fog/Freezing Fog Advy
for roughly the NRN half of the FA thru 9 AM this mrng. (See NPWLZK
product for details)

Once fog lifts later this mrng, expect another round of rain to
affect parts of the FA today as another upr impulse lifts NEWD acrs
the region. Models have been showing the bulk of the rainfall wl
affect the SERN half of the FA today and have adjusted POPS
accordingly.

The main upr low, now ovr NRN Mexico, is fcst to lift NEWD and
eventually pass acrs AR later tngt and early Tue. Assocd sfc low is
still expected to stay S and E of AR, with overrunning rainfall
affecting much AR. Rain chcs wl dcrs quickly fm the SW late tngt and
Tue mrng as the storm sys heads into the lower Ohio Valley region.
Weak high pres wl briefly move into the region later Tue and Tue
night, with plenty of clouds, along with some ptchy fog/drizzle.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

A broad trough will be over the U.S. to begin the period on
Wednesday. This trough will migrate east Thursday and a large upper
ridge over the west coast will provide northwest flow for Arkansas
Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. Zonal flow returns for
Sunday.

A cold front will be moving through Arkansas early Wednesday. Expect
precipitation chances ahead of and behind the front. Rain, sleet,
and snow will be possible in the north Wednesday and Wednesday
night...with just rain expected central and south. Dry and cold air
move into the area for Thursday and Friday with arctic high
pressure. This should be the coldest air of the season. Highs
Thursday will be in the upper 20s to lower 40s. Lows Friday morning
will be in the teens to lower 20s. A warming trend will begin Friday
with highs Friday in the 30s, Saturday in the 40s, and Sunday in the
50s. Moisture will increase across the area as the warmer air
returns. This will also bring an increasing chance of rain Saturday
night into Sunday. Saturday night there could be some light snow or
sleet in the northeast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...226



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