Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170600 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
SOME FEW-SCT BASES AT BOTH 4-5K AND 8-10K FT AGL ACROSS THE STATE
AS A RESULT OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING AS
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS TOO HIGH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN 5-7KT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ATTM. SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS ARE PICKING UP OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNING.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AS
THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS RIDGING OCCURS...IT WILL ONLY GET
WARMER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND COULD BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  47  69  49 /  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         70  47  75  52 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       65  45  68  46 /  10  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  47  75  50 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  49  73  51 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  50  74  54 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  46  74  49 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  45  68  46 /  10  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  49  70  50 /  10  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  50  74  53 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  46  72  49 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         67  48  71  51 /  10  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      68  51  73  53 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





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