Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232317 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
517 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will become light and variable overnight...but turn to the
south for Tue. Some breezy conditions will be seen across NWRN
sections of the state...with some gusts exceeding 20kts.
Otherwise...VFR conditions will remain dominant.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 238 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Latest satellite imagery indicates that low clouds have cleared
all of the forecast area. Expect fair conditions overnight and on
Tuesday. Southerly low level flow will promote warm conditions
for Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will move quickly through the state late Tuesday and
early Wednesday Isolated showers will be possible across extreme
southeast sections, otherwise a dry atmospheric column will
hinder the development of any measurable precipitation with this
system.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday

This is the first forecast I have produced in a while that has no
POPs in the extended forecast.

Generally speaking, the upper level pattern is remaining
progressive, albeit less so than during the previous weeks. During
the beginning of the term the central part of the country will be
under a broad trof, with weak ridging along the east coast. By the
end of the term Arkansas will end up between systems, as a ridge
builds across the west and a trof deepens across the east.

Starting on Saturday a meridional flow pattern will start to set in
at the upper levels, which will continue to bring cooler air aloft
to the region. At the surface, high pressure across the western US
will allow cooler and drier air to continue filtering in across the
plains into the south-central US, which will keep temps at or
slightly below climo. A southerly flow will eventually return to the
surface as a high settles into the southeast late in the period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62


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