Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210844
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. DUE TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO A POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FINALLY OVERALL
CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS BROUGHT A SOUTH WIND
FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE
HIGHEST WERE IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
THE LOWEST PRECIP WATER VALUE AROUND THE REGION...AND WAS 1.43
INCHES...WHILE KSGF AT 1.62 INCHES AND KSHV WITH 1.57 INCHES.
THERE DOES REMAIN DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND DID SEE
MIXING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS LOWERING
INTO THE 60S. CONSEQUENTLY HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE LOWER AND FROM
THE MID 90S TO LESS THAN 105. EXPECT THE SAME TODAY AND WILL
AGAIN ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WAS HOLDING OVER
AR...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. ON WEDNESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN...FAR WESTERN AND TO FAR NORTHEASTERN AR...BUT DO NOT SEE
MUCH TODAY DUE TO INCREASED MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT DUE TO STRONG HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND HOT TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE WEDNESDAY VALUES. THIS WILL RAISE HEAT INDEX
VALUES A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION...CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
AR TO OVER AR...KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AWAY FROM AR...AND
KEEPING THE FORECAST HOT AND DRY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO HOLD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS UP AND DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND GIVE SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL NUDGE UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 100 DEGREES...WHILE KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. SOME AREAS AT
SOME POINT WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES...AND A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM...BUT THEN
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE GFS
BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN QUICKLY AND ALLOWS A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST...WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING AT GULF MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH...AND HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS.

THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH READINGS
IN THE RIVER VALLEY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. WITH GULF MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  76  98  76 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       94  73  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  76  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  77  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  74  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  75  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  75  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      94  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58




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