Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 162351 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
551 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will become light by Wed morning as high pressure moves into
the state. Expect VFR conditions to continue through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Much quieter weather conditions are expected across the area through
the duration of the short term, compared to what occurred during
the last 24-48 hours. Upper level trough will continue to swing
east of the area through the evening and overnight hours. At the
surface, high pressure is just making its way into the area. This
is a fairly robust pressure system with Manhattan, Kansas(KMHK)
ASOS near the center of the high reporting a 1044mb SLP at 20z.

This high will continue to make its way over the state tonight, then
winds will become light and temperatures will plummet. Really for
the first time this season, a considerable snowpack is in place and
will likely have a significant influence on overnight low
temperatures. Northern portions of the state will likely see
temperatures at or near zero in many locations with southern and
eastern areas seeing colder temps as well due to the snowcover in
place.

High pressure at the surface will stick around through Wednesday
with northwest flow aloft continuing to funnel cold air into the
region. Temperatures will likely remain below freezing for most of
the state Wednesday. The high will begin to drift east on Thursday,
providing southerly winds and slowly warming temperatures.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Night

Extended term will begin with the surface high sagging southeast of
the area, bringing a return flow to the area. Initially south to
southwesterly winds will limit just how much moisture starts to ride
northward into the area, but as the high shifts more to the east,
moisture levels will start to increase noticeably by Friday.

The next major system will be dropping down across the southwestern
US early in the weekend, and will bring POPs to the area through the
weekend. With a fair amount of low level moisture, a SWLY flow aloft
ahead of the trof, and yet another front, it looks like we will see
thunderstorms across the area, with the highest chances on Sunday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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