Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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498
FXUS63 KARX 240545
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1145 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

At 2 PM, there was an area of sunny skies from northeast
Minnesota south into north-central Iowa.  A bit of this clearing is
creeping into parts of Dodge County in southeast Minnesota.
Temperatures ranged from the teens to mid-20s.

The 23.12z models are in agreement that a short wave trough will
move southeast through Iowa and Missouri tonight. With the air mass
dry across the region, most of the models are in agreement that we
will remain dry.  The one exception is the RAP which tries to
generate some flurries south of Interstate 90.  For the time being,
just stayed with the dry forecast.

On Wednesday, the models show that another short wave trough will
move southeast across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Like its
predecessor, the air mass looks too dry for precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The main story for the extended forecast is warmer temperatures,
especially on Friday.

Upper level ridging and southerly flow build into the region
Thursday into Friday resulting in much warmer temperatures. 925 mb
temperatures are expected to warm to +3 C to +6 C during this
timeframe.  Plan on high temperatures on Friday ranging from the
lower and mid 40s across portions of north-central Wisconsin to
around 50 over far southwest Wisconsin and portions of northeast
Iowa. A weak cold front slides through the region Friday night into
Saturday cooling highs back into the 30s to around 40. Another surge
of warm air is possible on Tuesday ahead of the next system.
There are signals way out in the extended that temperatures could
cool significantly going into the first week of February but it`s
a little early to nail down specifics.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The MVFR clouds have continued to progress east this evening and
have moved past both airports. Mid and high level clouds have
quickly spread in for VFR ceilings at both airports and expect
these to remain into Wednesday. There could also be some fog that
forms over the deeper snowpack near KRST for some visibility
reductions overnight into Wednesday morning as well. There is
still a large area of MVFR clouds farther west over western
Minnesota and Iowa. The 24.00Z NAM continues to show this moving
northeast and back into the area Wednesday as the low level flow
becomes southwest. However, the trend has been for these clouds to
mainly impact KRST with just a few hours in the afternoon at KLSE.
These clouds may then move back out Wednesday evening but with low
confidence on the coverage and timing, will detail that with later
forecasts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through Saturday
Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Elevated river levels will continue to recede across portions of
northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin over
the next few days. Be alert for possible ice jamming over the next
few days and localized high water or minor flooding. More ice
jams are possible on Friday as temperatures surge into the 40s to
possible lower 50s.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp



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