Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 281912
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Satellite Water Vapor Imagery showing closed low vicinity of KFSD
with a trough extending southeast through central IA. Ascent/lift
ahead of this low combined with fairly humid airmass was leading to
scattered shower/thunderstorms across the area per latest radar
trends. So far...storms are behaving...but next couple of hours in
added heating and 0-1KM ML MUCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500J/KG
range may lead to a few severe storms...especially along/east of the
Mississippi River where better 0-3KM bulk shear in the 20-30KT range
will exist. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threat...
but cannot rule out an isolated weaker tornado or two as well. As a
result...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 9 PM this
evening for most of the forecast area except for Clark and Taylor
counties.

Look for the severe threat to subside later this evening as surface
heating wanes and main forcing shifts east. Otherwise...will likely
continue to see isolated showers through the overnight hours with
mid-level trough moving overhead.

Trough lingers overhead Sunday for more showers and late
morning/afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Look for the trough to
push east of the area Sunday night with weak ridging building in for
clearing skies.

Temperature-wise...plan on lows tonight and Sunday night in the
middle 50s/lower 60s and highs Sunday in the middle/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Memorial Day through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Will see a chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly west of the
Mississippi River on Memorial Day in warm air advection/isentropic
lift ahead of low pressure moving into the Northern Plains.

Shower/thunderstorms become likely mainly in the Tuesday/Tuesday
night period as the area of low pressure and cold front push into
the area from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley region.

Looks like a bit of a cool down for latter next week into the
weekend with general troughing across the region. There will also be
a few showers chances as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Primary concern is watching thunderstorm potential this afternoon
and evening. Forecast guidance in good overall agreement showing
thunderstorms currently developing across south-central IA lifting
north and east through this evening, potentially impacting KRST
and KLSE between 28.21Z and 29.02Z. While VFR conditions will be
the general rule, MVFR (maybe IFR) conditions are possible with
stronger thunderstorms that move over TAF airfields. Once storms
move north and dissipate later this evening, will need to watch
the potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight. For
now, will lower ceilings into the MVFR range, but may need to
lower further as details emerge. Light southerly winds will shift
to the west-northwest and increase overnight into Saturday
morning.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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