Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 032100
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY
AT 241 PM CST.

WITH A MORE OR LESS DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS(EXCEPT
SUNDAY)...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 03.12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW A
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/
SOUTHEAST MN WHERE THERE IS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER...
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT WITH AN OCCASIONAL DROP IN
VISIBILITYAND/OR DRIFTING ACROSS AREA ROADWAYS. STRONGER WINDS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM -10 TO -25
TONIGHT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL HOLD
OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS THE COLDEST VALUES SHOULD BE
RATHER BRIEF AND LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS MAIN 1040 HPA SURFACE
HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CENTER MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...KEEPING A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH...GUSTING AT
TIMES TO 25 MPH. ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM
-15 TO -20 C WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO THE MID TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH TO PASS TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COLD AIR MASS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES
MODERATE EACH DAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS A BIT AND
ALLOWS WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO OOZE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WARM-UP ON TAP
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 925 HPA TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS. HIGHS BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE 40S.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AS STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. IF PRECIPITATION
MATERIALIZES...MAY NEED TO ADDRESS PHASE ISSUES GIVEN WARMER AIR
MASS...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AS ALL SNOW FOR SIMPLICITY. THE
REST OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH/EAST OF THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WI.
AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MINNESOTA TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z...PLAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 15-25KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. WAS PREVIOUSLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR KRST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL...APPEARS THIS THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. LOOK FOR THESE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MVFR CLOUD COVER THROUGH 08Z AT KRST AND 10Z
AT KLSE...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS


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