Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 140914
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
314 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main forecast concerns through tonight are on drizzle and rain. A
little freezing drizzle is possible over north-central Wisconsin
early this morning before temperatures warm above freezing.

Areas of drizzle and patchy fog will continue across the region
today as low level moisture continues to stream across the
region. A cold front approaches late this afternoon from the west
and will move through during the overnight hours into Wednesday
morning. Look for the light rain to become more widespread as the
front moves in and isentropic lift increases on the 290-300K
surfaces. Patchy fog will continue across the area today and may
become locally dense over portions of north central Wisconsin
tonight. Mesoscale models and SREF visibility probabilities are
showing a fairly strong signal for dense fog tonight north of the
Interstate 94 corridor. Will have to keep a very close eye on this
possibility.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on the potential for
some snow showers over north-central Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night and a period of gusty winds during this same
timeframe across the entire area. Then focus turns to rain/snow
chances late Thursday night into Saturday. Colder temperatures are
expected Saturday night into Sunday.

The front pushes east of the area by early Wednesday afternoon then
a compact shortwave trough pushes through and this is when the
colder air arrives along with gusty northwest Winds. Lapse rates
really steepen late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening so
we may see some rain and and snow showers, especially over north-
central Wisconsin. We could see wind gusts of 35 mph in open
areas late Wednesday afternoon into the early evening hours.

The next chance for rain and perhaps a wintry mix arrives late
Thursday night into early Friday as a broad upper trough and surface
low approach from the west. Warmer air moves into the region ahead
of this system so after the initial wintry mix possibility, the
main precipitation type should switch over to all rain by late
Friday morning across the local area. There could be some light
ice accumulations Friday morning across north-central Wisconsin.
As the low moves to the east of the area, colder air moves into
the region so we could see a switch over to snow late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Much cooler air then moves into the
region during the day on Saturday with temperatures falling
through the day. The coldest air arrives Saturday night when lows
will fall into the teens to around 20. Persistent northwest winds
will drive wind chill values into the single digits above zero
Sunday morning. Forecast confidence really falls off going into
next week with the forecast models showing large differences in
the overall pattern across the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Cigs/Vsby/WX: low level saturation continues to increase across the
region, with responding cigs from ifr to lifr. These have moved in,
and should hold through Tue night. Fog is accompanying the lower
cigs - generally MVFR. That said, as the saturation deepens it will
start to touch low level warm air advection/isentropic
upglide...resulting in areas of drizzle. Deeper cloud mass suggests
a change over to mostly rain or a ra/dz mix by Tue evening...but
will leave dz for simplicity for now. Mostly 1-3SM vsbys with the
pcpn. This too should hold across the region into Tue night.

Wind: will stay southerly through tomorrow, taking a turn to the
northwest with a frontal passage late Tue night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Rieck


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