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000
FXUS63 KARX 071903
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.

CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE
TROUGHING PRESIDED OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
WAS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF THIS TROUGHING
OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO ROLL AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IN THE DPVA REGION...BEING ENHANCED
NOW BY DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER JET STREAK GOING FROM
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THOSE
STORMS. CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE NORTH HALF OF WI. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW...COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND 1000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MLCAPE PER RAP ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THEIR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP TOO. ANOTHER PLUME OF LITTLE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...1000-2000 J/KG PER RAP...WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH CORN
EVAPOTRANSPORATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED NICELY DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING AND HAVING 850MB TEMPS OF 15-18C. MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...THERE ARE
SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHT FALLS FOR EARLY JULY...ON THE
ORDER OF 60-80 METERS IN 12 HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF DYNAMIC FORCING COMING ACROSS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...THAT
UPPER JET STREAK GOING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NOW SHOULD SLIDE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH IN IOWA...PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT. THROW IN
LINGERING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND THIS PROVIDES A GREAT RECIPE FOR
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AGREE AS WELL...WITH A MAX PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TIME LIKELY CENTERED NEAR 03Z.

THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOSTLY BETWEEN 23-03Z...
WHEN THE DYNAMICS ARE JUXTAPOSED ON TOP OF THE THERMODYNAMICS...AND
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATION OF INFLOW. STILL COULD HAVE SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE BEFORE THEN LIKE WE ARE OBSERVING NOW. 0-3KM AND 0-6
KM SHEAR STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION...30-
35 KT AND 40-55 KT RESPECTIVELY. HODOGRAPHS ARE MAINLY STRAIGHT
LINE...SUGGESTING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WHILE THE SHEAR ALSO FAVORS
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM
SURFACE TO THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT
SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE PRECIPITATION WEST TO EAST. THE FORECAST
AREA COULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY 09Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
UPPER TROUGH SET UP FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH...REFLECTED BY 500MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15C...COULD BE
ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME ISSUES THAT WOULD FAVOR A DRIER
FORECAST. FIRST...MODELS AGAIN ARE LIKELY OVERDOING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD
FAVOR A GOOD DRYING/MIXING SCENARIO. SECOND...SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPEAR TO TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...HAVE ONLY KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

A NICE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST...UPPER RIDGING EVENTUALLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY
00Z FRIDAY...AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO FORECAST BETWEEN 0.5-1 INCH...OR ANYWHERE FROM 50-100 PERCENT
OF NORMAL...SUPPORTING A DRY FORECAST AND ALSO ALLOWING FOR LARGER
DIURNAL SWINGS. NIGHTTIME LOWS COULD GET RELATIVELY CHILLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. THEREFORE IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE BEST NIGHT TO HAVE
TRIBUTARY VALLEY FOG.

THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO POSSIBLY TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A RESULT OF VERY
GOOD MOISTURE RETURN...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS
OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES...FLOWING BACK INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH. MEANWHILE...IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION. SOME
OF THE DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN RIGHT NOW...BUT CERTAINLY FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THERE COULD BE OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT AT LEAST FRIDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE
15-18C AND COULD BE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY. NOTE THAT A GENERAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF THE
07.00Z/12Z ECMWF RUNS ARE RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 6C ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z TO 04Z TIME-FRAME.
UNTIL THEN...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SOME MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASING LIFT ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THRU THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THESE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE TAF SITES LATE.
THUS THE VCTS AT BOTH KRST/KLSE AFTER 22Z. THE MAIN ROUND OF
FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY AND
MID EVENING HOURS...WITH A ROUND OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/
CHANCES TO INCLUDE A TEMPO 2SM TSRA BKN020 AT BOTH SITES IN THE 00-
02Z PERIOD...THOUGH THIS MAY STILL SHIFT AN HOUR EITHER WAY AT BOTH
SITES. QUIETER/DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
EVENING THRU TUE MORNING HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRING DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION. SOME GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
LATER TUE MORNING/TUE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL WARMING MIXING AND A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL. IN FACT...WE ARE EXPECTING
ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FLOOD WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AT WINONA AND LA CROSSE AND WILL SOON BE AT
WABASHA. PERIODIC RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
IT APPEARS THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE MISSISSIPPI...OR ITS TRIBUTARIES FOR THAT MATTER.
FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...AJ