Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 290808
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCE REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. IR SHOWS A MASSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SURFACE
REPORTS SHOWING MOST SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW FLURRIES WERE CONFINED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI. OTHERWISE...RATHER BRISK CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

FOR TODAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO FILLS AND MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.
APPEARS DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND BEFORE 12Z DESPITE DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE ON THE 290K SURFACE...OR 850-700MB LAYER. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD COLUMN SATURATION EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWEST 3KFT. HOWEVER...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THIS LOWEST LAYER OF DRY AIR IN PLACES FOR SCATTERED
SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

MODELS SHOWING VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY ON VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS
GETTING A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AS VERY COLD MINUS
3 TO MINUS 5C 925MB AIR SPILLS IN. ADDING TO THE CHILL WILL BE
INCREASING/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PLAN ON SUSTAINED WINDS FROM LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S FRIDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

CANADIAN HIGH/VERY CHILL AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. PLAN ON LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE...HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
40S.

A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO A FEW
LOWER 50S. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. LSE HAS MAINLY BEEN VFR THIS EVENING BUT RECENTLY
DROPPED TO 2800FT AND COULD STAY THERE OR AT LEAST AROUND 3KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RST HAS MAINLY BEEN MVFR BUT DID SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW HANGING AROUND 3KFT AS WELL.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS DOWN AROUND
20KTS OR LOWER. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OR SCATTER OUT WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH



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