Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 301955
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING STRATUS/
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER ENTRENCHED ACROSS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL IL. A
FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING TREND SOUTHEASTWARD
SURE HAS BEEN A SLOW GO. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUFFERING WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST RAP/NAM/NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL SHOW RATHER RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. PRETTY CHILLY AIRMASS HEADED INTO
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT...BUT WAS MODIFYING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...PER RAP/NAM 0.5KM TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. AS SUCH...NOT LOOKING FOR A HUGE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI. GRANTED...WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT SURFACE WINDS OF 5-8 MPH SHOULD
KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD FROST. WELL
SHELTERED/LOWER LYING AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP FROST ADVISORY GOING FOR TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE GRADIENT
WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING FOR PERHAPS A BIT MORE DECOUPLING OF
WINDS. KEPT ADVISORY OUT OF THE REST OF CENTRAL WI DUE TO THE
WINDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

DRY/COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS CORE OF
THE HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
TUESDAY.

SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL SNEAK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION MAY TREND MORE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. WILL SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS DO WITH THIS TREND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD //THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY// THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE RIDGE FOR PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES. APPEARS HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
WORKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA...BUT STILL EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT.
BASED ON THE 30.15Z RAP SOUNDINGS...THE CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT KRST AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT KLSE. WITH THE
RECENT RAINS...CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH ALL
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND
THE NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ADVECT THIS DRIER AIR IN HELPING TO
MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ017.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04



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