Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 200400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Light rain continues to fall across portions of the Tri-State area
this afternoon. Amounts in general have been very light, due to a
combination of intruding dry air and weak lift. This light
precipitation will slowly dissipate as it drifts southeast into the
evening hours. Further west, already seeing developing showers and
thunderstorms east of the Black Hills on a weak inverted sfc trough.
This activity is expected to remain to the west of the CWA into this
evening, before drifting into the Missouri River valley towards and
after midnight as a weak MCV.

Overnight: Stratus begins a weak frontal boundary will gradually
dissipate this evening, with thinning mid-upr clouds allowing for
temperatures to falling into the 30s in many areas. Stratus may try
to rebuild in the MO River Valley after midnight.

Thursday: Lingering morning sprinkles and cloud cover will give way,
albeit slowly, to sunshine by the afternoon. With 850mb ridge axis
remaining across or west of the CWA in the day, clouds should remain
rather abundant.  The resultant temperatures will only climb into
the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Relatively mild pattern across the area Friday through the weekend
as ridge in the upper level jet buckles north and low level
southerly flow develops across the plains. A series of weak
disturbances are expected to work through the region throughout the
weekend resulting in wind shifts. Have raised temperatures on
Saturday over blend with mild pattern.

More robust southerly flow develops Sunday night into Monday. An
upper trough is expected to dig into the Pacific NW resulting in
southwest flow aloft across the plains.  There are several short
waves embedded in the flow, resulting in periodic precipitation
chances Monday night through Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Low end VFR
conditions will be possible mainly across south central into far
southeast SD through the overnight hours and Wednesday
morning...but the main cloud deck will be above 10k feet agl. Winds
will remain light.




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