Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 032042
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON COLD FRONT...LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MN TO
NORTHERN SD MID AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING. MOISTURE PRETTY SPARSE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...SO WE
ARE STILL ONLY LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EAST OF
US HIGHWAY 75 IN SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING
AFTER SUNSET...THE BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY STILL PRODUCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
MASS AND SOME DECREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS.

SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 60S EAST
TO NEAR 70 ALONG/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MIXING WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA BY MID-LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH WITH DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER WITH GROUND STILL QUITE WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED WITH UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS.  WITH BLOCKING
PATTERN...SHOULD BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 18 C AT 850 HPA ON
FRIDAY...SHOULD SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90.  INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE MIXING...AND HAVE RAISED
FORECAST HIGHS OVER WARMING ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 25-35 KNOTS OF WIND BELOW 900
MB...HAVE RAISED WINDS SATURDAY MORNING.  IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION...ATMOSPHERE IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE CAPPED AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED. HAVE THEREFORE DECREASED POPS INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS LOOK MORE UNSETTLED AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SYSTEM PHASES WITH A WAVE TO
THE NORTH IN CANADA AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA 22Z-05Z. BRIEF GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JH



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