Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

000
FXUS63 KFSD 250900
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
400 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL TAKE THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A WARM CAPPING LAYER AROUND 800MB WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT
BAY. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATION NORTH OF A TYNDALL TO SPENCER IOWA
LINE. FOR THOSE AREAS WITH SOME SUNSHINE TODAY THE AIR ALOFT IS
STILL WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
SETTLES IN DURING THE DAY. SO HIGHS LIKELY CLOSE TO 70 NEAR SPENCER
IOWA AND JUST IN THE MID 50S FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS.

BY TONIGHT THE COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. IF
CLOUDS REMAIN A LITTLE THICKER THAN EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 14 LOWS
COULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

COOL...CLOUDY AND WET SUMMARIZES THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS IMPACT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
CURRENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT THINK MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TILL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
UPPER LOW CAMPS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LOW IS WELL CUT OFF FROM THE
UPPER LOW...AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ON.  HAVE SQUASHED DIURNAL
OSCILLATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND RAISED POPS TO NEAR CERTAINTY.
THERE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LIGHTNING AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO CLIMB AND 850 -700 MB LAPSE RATES ARE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
THAN MOIST ADIABATIC.  WITH TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES
CLIMBING ABOVE 1 INCH...PWAT VALUES CLIMB ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
WITH EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...RAISED QPF
AMOUNTS MID WEEK INTO THE 1.25-2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS SAW MORE THAN THAT.

SYSTEM BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW SPLITS AND
LARGE PORTION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS EAST WHILE THE SECOND
HALF LIFTS NORTH AND POTENTIALLY RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST.

AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS...A SECOND MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US.  AS IT WORKS TO THE NORTH...IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE
FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM.  WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE REGION...HAVE
CONTINUED TO RAISE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED...SO KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT A LOT OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS MOVING INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY...MVFR TO IFR STRATUS
EXISTS IN THESE AREAS TO OUR NORTH...AND ONCE THE LOW SWINGS BY...
THE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD USHER THESE CLOUDS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
AREA. KHON WILL BE AFFECTED FIRST...WITH THE STRATUS TAKING LONGER
TO GET INTO THE KFSD AND KSUX LOCATIONS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...MJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.