Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 230451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1051 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Impressive upper level low on water vapor rotating northeast into
Iowa. The warm conveyer belt has drifted into southern Wisconsin and
was directing strong lift into southern MN, far southeast SD and
southwest MN. This trowal will gradually shift east and northeast
through the evening with the heavier snow amounts diminishing from
southwest to northeast. Additional snowfall amounts after 6 pm will
be fairly minimal with an inch or so possible around Jackson,
Spencer Iowa south towards Storm Lake. Will allow headlines to
expire as currently forecast but there will be a chance that a few
locations could see headlines cancelled if winds diminish quickly
enough. Clouds and winds will only gradually diminish through the
night which will keep temperatures relatively mild. Lows will be in
the teens to lower 20s.

Westerly flow will develop on Tuesday and with partly to mostly
cloudy skies temperatures will warm a little through the day. Deep
snowpack will keep some areas limited in warming, but highs will
range from the upper 30s in central SD to the mid 20s over the
deepest snowpack from southeast SD into northwest IA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Wednesday into Thursday will see upper level ridging spread
across the area, allowing for continued mild temperatures. Just
being held back a bit by snowpack. But, as mild as this pattern is
expected to be, any areas with about 3 inches or less of snow
cover will likely see much of it melt by Thursday or Friday.

Still looking at a piece of energy moving through on Saturday but
confidence low so no plans on adding any chances for precipitation.
After this wave passes it will be briefly cooler on Sunday then back
to mild flow on Monday and Tuesday next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Northwesterly winds will continue to slowly taper down through the
night, with patchy blowing snow over northwestern IA through 09Z.
There could be some patchy fog development through the western
James River Valley during the night, though not expecting it to
get into KHON. Otherwise, IFR/MVFR ceilings will linger into
Tuesday afternoon.




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