Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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816
FXUS63 KFSD 152255
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
455 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Band of light snow will quickly move through the area early this
evening. Models are suggesting the band may hold together through
the forecast area, so have raised pops to anticipate a high pop/ low
qpf event. Expect less than an inch, with the heaviest
accumulations in eastern SD. Thereafter, expect clearing skies and
the temperatures to continue to fall. With brisk north winds and
temperatures falling into the single digits this evening, wind
chills will fall to 10 to 20 below.  Expect winds to decrease after
midnight, but with temperatures continuing to fall in the
neighborhood of zero, wind chill will remain in the 10 to 20 below
range.

Expect temperatures to rebound on Friday as 925 hpa temperatures
warm over 10 C throughout the day.  Weak cold front works through
the region on Friday night. Could be just enough support for some
light snow along the front. Have raised pops into the chance range
across southwest Minnesota into northwest Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Saturday will be a relatively quiet day, but stronger winds from
aloft will mix down to the surface creating breezy conditions.  Main
focus this weekend will be low pressure system that moves through
the Dakotas on Sunday, with strong winds developing Sunday morning
and continuing into Monday. As this occurs, large upper trough digs
into the west coast and a series of waves lift through the region
Sunday night -Tuesday. The first of these waves appears to impact
the area early on Monday. Have raised pops in the 06-18Z time frame
on Monday in the categorical range.

Next wave appears to impact the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Have also raised pops in this time frame to liklies. At this point,
it is hard to say if the snow will end between waves, or when the
snow will finally end on Tuesday.  With the snow being relatively
dry and brisk winds at least through the first half of the event,
could see some blowing snow. The key message at this point is this
system is expected to bring accumulating snow to the region with
hazardous travel conditions.

Below normal temperatures are expected behind this system, but
models are suggesting a fairly quick recovery by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 449 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A band of light snow with MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will
continue to slide across the area during the evening, with some
weakening as it moves to the southeast. Snow should exit the area
by 04Z, with winds tapering off overnight. VFR conditions are
expected on Friday, with light northwesterly winds transitioning
to southerly through the day.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JM



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