Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 252359
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
659 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA ENOUGH
WARMING MAY BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. NOT ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SEVERE ACTIVITY BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR. THE
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS A LIKELY MCS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 MAY SEE SOME PASSING LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS MCS. MID LEVEL FORCING AND DECENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DOWN INTERSTATE 90 FROM
ABOUT 500 PM THROUGH 1000 PM. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH POSSIBLY SOMETHING CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH IN
THE SOUTHWEST CWA.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
CWA...AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A
FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 9500 FEET AGL MIGHT SUPPORT SOME HAIL TO DIME
SIZE IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE PULLS OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION...SO WILL SEE LESSENING CONVECTIVE CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. BY LATER ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR EASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOCATED. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
LOWS AROUND 60. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL PULL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE REGION...RESULTING IN SUBTLE COOLING ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NOTCHING DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MID
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WARMER FOR THIS PERIOD.. THOUGH
STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF WARMING.
DID TREND TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...THOUGH MAY END UP BEING
EVEN WARMER. MAY SEE SOME COOLING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWING THE THROUGH THE REGION...THOUGH
STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN NORTH NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...


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