Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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575
FXUS63 KFSD 240452
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1052 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Main story of the short term forecast will be the fire danger for
Friday. Tonight brings lows much warmer than normal as warm
advection and a light breeze interfere with radiational
cooling ahead of an approaching cold front.

Surface cold front arrives by mid morning Friday, bringing cold air
advection aloft and rapid pressure rises. Have accordingly continued
the trend of boosting winds above guidance during this period.
Expect a windy Friday with northwesterly winds up to 25 knots
sustained and up to 35 knot gusts. Just below wind advisory criteria
but when combined with minimum RH values in the 30s along and west
of the James River, fire danger will be very high. The paucity of
moisture will also preclude any mention of precipitation even as
some decent QG forcing arrives around noon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Longwave ridging builds in for Saturday through the first half of
Monday, with some very warm temperatures for November expected
Sunday and Monday thanks to the warm air aloft and plenty of
southerly warm advection expected. Have gone with the trend in
previous shifts and boosted highs above guidance for those two days.

The next wave begins to swing across Monday, bringing the next cold
frontal passage to the region sometime around Monday evening.
This will herald a return to more seasonable temperatures for the
remainder of the extended forecast. This wave has the potential
to bring precipitation to our CWA sometime during the Monday
afternoon - Wednesday time frame but, in the spirit of the pattern
we`ve been stuck in as of late, none of the operational runs and
few of the GEFS members currently show both forcing and moisture
coming together in our neck of the woods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Surface winds
gusts near 25 kts will continue tonight in parts of southwest MN
near and downstream of the Buffalo Ridge through 10z, but prospect
for low-level wind shear remains too marginal on value to mention
for KFSD and KSUX forecasts at this point. A strong cold front
will press across the area during the morning and very early
afternoon, and will be followed by frequent northwest wind gusts
of 25 to 35 kts.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...Chapman



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