Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 271119
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
619 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions prevail today, with highs 15 to 25 degrees
  below normal in the lower 20s to mid 30s.

- Temperatures warm Thursday and Friday, with highs forecast to
  moderate back toward seasonal normals.

- Precipitation chances return Friday and again on Sunday,
  though confidence in track and amounts remaining low at this
  time.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Quiet conditions continue to prevail across the region, with latest
observations showing mostly clear skies and temperatures in the
single digits to teens. Temperatures will feel even colder near
daybreak, as wind chill values fall into the positive to negative
single digits - so be sure to bundle up before heading outdoors.
Expect sfc high pressure to slide overhead this afternoon, allowing
mostly sunny skies and light winds to continue. Similar to days
past, only have highs rising into the mid 20s to lower 30s in areas
that received a decent amount of snow, with mid 30s to low 40s
possible in areas elsewhere - which is about 15 to 25 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Cold temperatures continue into the
evening, as overnight lows fall into single digits to lower teens
along and north of I-90, and teens to lower 20s in areas south.

Upper level ridging builds across the central CONUS Thursday,
allowing highs to slowly moderate back toward seasonal norms. Thus,
have temperatures rising into the 40s to lower 50s in areas that
experience decent snowmelt, while areas elsewhere struggle to get
out of the 30s.

Otherwise, expect upper level flow to turn more zonal heading into
the weekend. As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see a
sfc low pressure push eastward across the central Plains Friday,
causing precipitation chances to return to the forecast. Given the
close proximity to the warm front and shallow cold air north of the
front, it`s a decent set-up for freezing rain north of I-90, but
with ensembles/clusters suggesting precipitation chances remaining
low (<30%) doesn`t look to cause any concern. Similar to Thursday,
highs will largely depend on how much snowmelt can be achieved.
Think those that have little to no snow pack stand a decent chance
of seeing temperatures warm into the 50s to 60s.

Attention then turns to a pronounced upper level trough and low
pressure over the western CONUS heading into the new week. Latest
guidance would suggest that precipitation will be possible again as
early as Saturday night with a decent push of mid-level WAA, though
the better chances (60-80%) look to occur Sunday night into Monday.
Nonetheless, still dealing with a bit of model discontinuity
concerning the track of the aforementioned upper level trough and
subsequent shortwaves. For now, will continue to monitor trends and
adjust PoPs as confidence increases. Otherwise, look for highs in
the 40s to prevail during this time, with lows generally in the 20s
to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Should see
mostly sunny skies prevail today, with relatively light
west/northwesterly winds. Otherwise, look for direction to become
light and variable after sunset.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...SST


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