Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 040455
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL BE LETTING THE ADVISORY GO AT 3 PM FOR THE SOUTH DAKOTA SIDE AS
VISIBILITIES ARE UP AND WINDS WILL ONLY GET LIGHTER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL LET SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA CONTINUE THROUGH 0Z AS
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 3 MILES AROUND THE BUFFALO
RIDGE.

A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING A LITTLE LESS THAN ANTICIPATED BUT WILL
STILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES TO SOME DEGREE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN DROP TO OR A
LITTLE BELOW 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES JUST LOW ENOUGH DOWN
HIGHWAY 14 TO NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECTING LOWS FROM AROUND
5 BELOW IN THE NORTH TO 5 ABOVE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW FELL.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT A MORE
GENERAL 10 TO 20 MPH OR SO IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL KEEP THE DAY
PRETTY DARN COLD THOUGH SO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS WIND CHILLS LIKELY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE
DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS WERE
RAISED A BIT DUE TO LITTLE OR NO SNOW. LOOKING AT HIGHS NEAR 20 FROM
YANKTON TO SIOUX CITY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD START TO THE EXTENDED WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE
AREA LEADING TO A COLD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.  WITH THE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST...FRESH SNOWCOVER...AND
925 HPA TEMPS AROUND -20C  HAVE DROPPED FORECAST LOWS IN THE EAST.
WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT IF NOT EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE...TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG CHINOOK PATTERN SETS UP THEREAFTER WITH NICE WARMING
EXPECTED.  WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW WEAKENING....AREA REMAINS UNDER
WARM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.  HAVE NUDGE FORECAST HIGHS UPWARDS ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WAS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH REMAINING
SNOW COVER.  WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
SUNDAY MORNING.  ALSO HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR 6-8 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WITH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS...STILL ERRED TOWARDS
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

BOLSTERED HIGHS MORE ON THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. 850 HPA TEMPS FORECASTED BY THE ECMWF
ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS...AND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW AM NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT STRATUS
POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE TOO COOL COMPARED TO TEMPS ALOFT
AND LIMITED SNOW COVER...SO HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

SECONDARY COLD PUSH WILL APPROACH THE KHON AREA TOWARD 12Z...
AND WITH IT WILL COME A PERIOD OF LOWER END VFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT AT WORST EXPECT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY. THE FLURRY THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE BUT BE LESS
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KFSD AND
KSUX...AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT OF THESE TAFS. AFTER INITIAL
CLOUD PERIOD WITH BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY GET SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY CEILINGS WERE
TO DEVELOP...WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO LOW END VFR HEIGHTS TO NOT
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ038>040.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-
     072-080-081.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN



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