Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Things look to remain somewhat murky, but otherwise quiet
weatherwise for today and most of tonight. We`ll remain in somewhat
of a col in the sea level pressure pattern today, but should begin
to see some return flow kick in across the western portion of the
forecast area by later tonight as the upcoming system begins to work
out into the southern Plains. Some isentropic ascent and deeper
moistening is suggested across the far west by most of the guidance
by 12Z, so included some chance PoPs for snow in that area late
tonight. Otherwise, look for cloud skies to persist across the area
today and tonight, with light winds. Areas of fog this morning,
along with some patchy drizzle, should slowly slide east and/or
dissipate by this afternoon, although some localized fog will
certainly still be possible, particularly across the east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The main forecast concern in the longer term remains development
of winter storm in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. We will
continue the winter storm watch for 18z Tuesday through Wednesday
Afternoon for this forecast.

Models have begun to shift slightly to the north...with the 08z
Nam-wrf showing the greatest shift from yesterday. This trend will
have to be monitored as a northward shift in the overall heavy
snow band is a possibility. The 00z ECMWF continued it slightly
more southern track and a bit slower in lifting the snow into
southern MN. Forecast QPF has increased a bit with some
deterministic models indicating totals around 1 inch possible to
the southwest. This seems a bit overdone but the 0.80 inch totals
look more likely. The 00z GEFS probabilities are still showing a
bullseye over the southern third of the state...with totals of 3
to 5 inches across the metro. And this followed well with the SREF
snow accumulation`s as well. We considered lifting the watch
another tier of counties north...but held off because of the
large spread in overall guidance. The trough is just now coming
ashore over the southwest and we should get increased confidence
in overall forecast with the 12z model run.

The system spreads east Wednesday with snow tapering and ending
from west to east during the day. Still could see an inch or two
to the east during this period. Flow aloft becomes more northwest
and drags slightly cooler air along with the continuation of
clouds through much of the remainder of the period. Some small
chances for light snow or flurries into Thursday with generally
dry thereafter until chances return for more snow late in the
weekend or early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Poor aviation conditions overnight and early Monday morning for
most of the TAF sites as patchy -DZ/-FZDZ occur along with IFR or
lower ceilings/visibilities. The one area early in pretty good
shape is KRWF where a little downslope from the Buffalo ridge is
helping to keep things mainly MFVR. An improving trend for the
area beginning late Monday morning as high pressure moves in
lifting ceilings to MVFR along with visibilities to VFR. Light WNW
winds overnight and Monday morning becoming light and variable in
the afternoon.

KMSP...-DZ for a few hours early this morning. Not expecting any
-FZDZ at the airfield as the precipitation ends before the
temperature dips to 32 degrees after daybreak. Otherwise,
conditions improving by Monday afternoon to MVFR ceilings along
with VFR visibilities. It will stay that way until Tuesday

Tue...MVFR/Chance -SN in the mrng with IFR/SN in the aftn. Winds
      E less than 10 kts becoming NE 10-15 kts.
Tue night...IFR with SN. Winds NE 10-20 kts becoming NW.
Wed...MVFR with IFR possible. -SN likely early. Winds NW 15-25 kts.
Wed night and Thu...MVFR possible. Chance -SN. Winds NW 10-20 kts.


MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     afternoon for MNZ073>078-082>085-091>093.



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