Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 062215
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Clouds, blustery winds and occasional flurries will be the norm
over the next 24 hours as a deep cyclone slowly lifts east-northeast
of the area.

Strong cold air advection has been spreading across MN/WI since
last night and most locations have seen near steady temperatures
or falling temperatures during the day today. The center of the
low pressure responsible for the change in weather today is
located near the US/Canadian border just to the west of
International Falls. The low will slowly slide to the east-
northeast tonight and by sunrise tomorrow, the system will be just
north of Lake Superior. While the wind will slowly drop off
tonight, the boundary layer will remain well mixed through about
2KM through tomorrow morning with a strong pressure gradient
across the area. This will continue to promote wind gusts up over
30 MPH through most of the night. Wind chills between -10 and +10
are expected through the night. Same story tomorrow - clouds,
winds and a few snow flurries.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

An active and progressive weather pattern will continue to afflict
most of northern half of the CONUS through the extended period, and
possibly beyond into the third week of December. Temperatures will
remain cold enough for any weather system to produce snow.
Differences in timing and placement of several short waves moving
across our region will continue in the weather forecast models which
leads to low probability of amounts, and location. However,
confidence has increased for next weekends weather system which
could bring significant snowfall to portions of the Upper Midwest.

Based on the strength of the atmosphere thermodynamics in terms of
moisture, temperature, and lift, any weather system that moves out
of the Rockies and into the Plains, will be capable of producing
lots of precipitation.

The main system for this weekend is still 1000 miles west of the
Pacific Northwest. Models will begin to have a better handle on the
evolution of this system by Thursday as this system moves onshore.
Placement of the surface low near Rapid City SD, remains fairly
close from both the EC/GFS and a local WRF model Saturday morning
and moves quickly eastward along the Nebraska, SD border, to
southeast Minnesota by Sunday morning. This track and associated
upper level jet and warm air advection regime, is close to a type of
winter storm that typically produces significant snowfall amounts in
Minnesota. As always, any deviation of this track or other factors,
will affect snowfall amounts. Current CIPS analogs do support a
broad area of 4 to 8 inches of snowfall across southern/central
Minnesota from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Later
shifts will need to see changes in the path and upper jet structure
to show increasing confidence of this potential winter storm.

Another storm system is possible early next week as this progressive
pattern continues. Not much change in the mean upper level pattern
which keeps the Upper Midwest cooler than normal through the next 10-
14 days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 400 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

MVFR stratus is expected through the evening, with bases slowly
coming up with time at most TAF sites. Admittedly, we have been
too fast today with the improving ceilings and the model guidance
is mixed on whether the cloud bases will be 3000-4000ft or remain
2000-2500. KAXN has blowing snow and very poor conditions that
will remain in place at least through the evening. KSTC has seen
vis restriction due to light snow - that should gradually improve
this evening.

KMSP...

The breezy westerly wind is here to stay for the next 24-30 hours.
Winds will very slowly veer by 20-30 through the TAF period, but
nearly all out model guidance suggest the direction will be
250-270 degrees through the morning rush tonight and tomorrow. We
think ceilings will roughly remain the same - perhaps slowly rise
tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR with slight chance -SHSN. NE wind 15-25 kt.
Fri...VFR. W wind 5-10 kt.
Sat...MVFR with chance SN and IFR. SE wind 5-10 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ041-
     042-047>049-055.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ054-056-057-064-
     065-073-074-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF



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