000
FXUS63 KMPX 070407 CCA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1006 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK THIS EVENING...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN MANY PLACES OVER CENTRAL MN. WIND
CHILLS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S BELOW IN THESE
AREAS...AND THINK AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE -20S WIND
CHILLS WILL EASILY REACH WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS BEING REACHED BUT
THINK LOWS WILL REMAIN A BIT MILDER TO KEEP WIND CHILLS FROM
REACHING -35 ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS. THUS...THE CURRENT HEADLINE
CONFIGURATION LOOKS GOOD.

DID DECREASE TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

1052 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY FILL INTO A 1040 MB HIGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES SRN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS FOR THE SHORT TERM...
CONTINUED BITTER COLD AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.  FOR
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW...FAVORED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE MUCH COOLER MET AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON HOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE PERFORMED...OR UNDER PERFORMED REALLY THIS
AFTERNOON /SEE A HIGH OF -7 AT AXN TODAY/. THIS RESULTED IN TAKING
ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES OFF THE FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NOW
HAVE LOWS OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WHEN ADDING IN WNW
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH...WE ARE NOW GETTING FORECAST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 35 TO 45 BELOW ZERO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND MOST OF
CENTRAL MN. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE CWA TO A WIND CHILL WARNING. OTHER CHANGE TO
THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES WAS TO EXTEND ALL HEADLINES OUT TO NOON ON
SATURDAY...AS THE COOLING OF THE TEMPS TOMORROW RESULTED IN APPARENT
TEMPS OF -25 LINGERING A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS FOR
TOMORROW...925 MB TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
TODAY...SO IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAT WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
WILL BE A TOUGH GO FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH SNOW COVER TO
SEE HIGHS GET ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF WA/OR ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SPANNING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A SNOW EVENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING /THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS/.
THE NAM/SREF SOLUTION REMAINS THE FARTHEST NORTH AND STRONGER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK A STATE OR TWO TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 06.12Z GFS/EC DID COME IN A LITTLE
HIGHER WITH THE QPF ACROSS IA...BUT THEY STILL HAVE LESS THAN 0.20"
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG CONCERN IS THE DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE AND EXPECTED HIGH SNOW RATIOS. THE OMEGA AND FORCING
ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE COLUMN
WITH RESPECT TO ICE AND WE HAVE ABOUT 8000-10000 FT OF GOOD
DENDRITE GROWING TEMPS. WE THINK SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE NEAR 25:1.
WE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS BY 1-2 INCHES AND BUMPED THE POPS TO 100%
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
THE KEY TO THE NORTHERN NAM FORECAST SEEMS TIED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH WITH AN EARLY WEAKER BAND OF FGEN...WHICH
IN TURN DEVELOPS MORE LATENT HEATING AND PULLS THE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH AND STRENGTHENS IT. THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKE AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY-TYPE EVENT WITH 3-5" POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA. A STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE ON MONDAY SUGGEST WE
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SURFACE GUSTS UP NEAR 30 KTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ALL THAT HIGH RATIO
SNOW THAT FALLS THE PREVIOUS DAY. SNOW WILL END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD AIR PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT
SOME MODERATION AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS
SOMEWHAT ALLOWING NEAR SURFACE FLOW FROM THE WEST AS OPPOSED TO
THE ARCTIC. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK APPEAR RATHER
MINIMAL WITH SYSTEMS PASSING TO JUST TO THE NORTH OR REMAINING
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...LIGHT
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MON-TUE IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE VERY COLD WILL
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH AND WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC
BOUNDARY EXPECTED WITH MORE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH SN BY AFTN. WINDS SE AT 5-10KTS.
MON...MVFR/-SN ENDING EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 15G25KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS WNW 15G25KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ045-052-053-
     060>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ041>044-
     047>051-054>059.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF