Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 311741
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE DEEP LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING FOR US WITH THIS SETUP. THIS
DRY AIR MASS/HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WITH US RIGHT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY...WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS
COMMONLY TO 20+ MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER BUT NOT A NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE...IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING ONCE THE SUN IS ON THE HORIZON
AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION FORMS. LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOW 60S IN THE
METRO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH THE PERPETUAL
ERN NOAM TROF AND WRN NOAM RIDGE CONTINUING ALOFT...PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SAT...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW
ALOFT WHILE THE SFC FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY EWD...TRANSITIONING INTO
MORE OF A WMFNT WITH A SFC LOW FORMING OVER SD BY LATE DAY SAT.
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCTD TSTMS. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LWR 60S
AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SWLY LLVL FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
VEERING OF WINDS GOING ALOFT...PARTICULARLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING
LOW- AND MID-LVL JETTING INVOF THE WMFNT. THE INTERSECTION OF THE
LLVL JET WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRON WILL MAKE FOR BULK SHEAR
APPROACHING 40KT OVER SRN MN BY SAT NIGHT. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR A EWD/SEWD MOVINGMCS.
SPC HAS DELINEATED MUCH OF SRN MN INTO SWRN WI WITHIN A SLGT RISK
WHICH CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY E/SE
OF THE MPX CWFA BY SUN MRNG...WITH MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RE-DEVELOPMENT SUN AFTN. HOWEVER...THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE WELL SE OF THE MPX CWFA...IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM SHIFTING AWAY TO
THE E AND A CDFNT HAVING MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY MON MRNG...
COOLER HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...
BRING BROUGHT INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION FROM W-CENTRAL
CANADA. DRY WX WILL BE THE RULE MON-TUE WHILE HIGH TEMPS DROP INTO
THE MID-UPR 70S...BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF AUGUST. UPR LVL
FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WED-THU AS THE WRN NOAM RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES CENTER
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THRU MIDWEEK. THIS LOW
WILL THEN GATHER IN GOMEX MOISTURE WHILE IT TRAVELS INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY CHC POPS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-THU WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNSET...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNSET...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 10KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 5KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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