Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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474
FXUS63 KMPX 171111
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
511 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Today will very likely be one for the record books. The current
forecast is for record-setting temps at all 3 climate sites (EAU,
MSP, STC) and 70 degrees at Canby MN. Meanwhile, STC has a forecast
high of 60F, which has never happened in the month of February since
records began back in 1893. The current forecast is for 63F at MSP,
which is 1 shy of the all-time monthly record of 64. Admittedly
these temperature forecasts are quite bold, but there is plenty of
evidence to support them.

As alluded to nicely in the previous discussion, southeast winds
kept Thursday`s highs on the cool side, but today we will have
southwest winds. They will likely be stronger than depicted by the
model guidance since forecast soundings are bone dry and there isn`t
any snow cover. Stronger winds will lead to deeper mixing. This
deeper mixing will tap into the warm air aloft. The forecast H850
temperature of 15C are warmer than anything measured by the MPX raob
according to the SPC climatology site. Although we will not mix up
anywhere close to H850, it still reflects the unprecedented airmass
in place. The final piece of evidence was yesterday`s high of 61 and
Canby MN, so going forward should be able to climb 9 more degrees
and reach 70 which falls in line with Thursday`s observed
temperatures in central South Dakota.

In summary, today has the potential to be a run-away temperature
day, so decided to increase highs across the forecast area. There
will be no precipitation between now and Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The potential is high for more record warmth from Saturday through
Wednesday as height and thermal fields that our well above
seasonal values prevail. FB temperature grids continued to be too
low and we raised highs and lows for each day in this period.
Highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s are forecast, which is nearly
30 degrees above normal. The warmest readings are primarily in
the MN River Valley. Not to be overlooked, but low temperatures
will also be at or above record high minimums for many of the
mornings in this same period. However, Monday and Tuesday mornings
will be well outside the climate box, with lows well into the 40s
forecast. Potentially the warmest low temperature ever recorded
during the month of February could be broken at all three of our
climate sites. The warmest minimum is 44 degrees at MSP and EAU
with 40 degrees at STC. We have lows above these values on Monday
and/or Tuesday morning.

The low temperatures early next week are anonymously high due to
moisture increasing ahead of an approaching Pacific cool front
pushing east from the Northern Plains. Surface dew points are
progged into the middle 40s to lower 50s for a time. We will also
have some elevated instability moving through on Monday and
isolated thunderstorms were mentioned.

The end of the long term and heading through next weekend will
likely bring us back to reality on what time of year it is and the
fact that winter is not over. The GFS and ECMWF have quite the
snowstorm for the region for Friday and Saturday. It`s a
phenomenal event with both predicting QPF values from 1 to 2
inches across our entire area. A simple 10 to 1 snow ratio tells
you how much snow could fall. A trend noted with this storm is
that is does not involve phasing as several other of our failed
snow events did. This one is simply a wave now west of the
Aleutians Islands, reaching the west coast by mid week and then
pushing eastward from there. Needless to say 100 pops are already
in the forecast for Friday from FB.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions throughout. Winds will start out southeast, but
should become southerly and take on a westerly component by late
morning. The southwest winds will be more westerly by evening as a
weak boundary passes through the region dry.

KMSP... Southeast winds are hanging on a bit longer, so have pushed
back the timing of the change to southerly until 14Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...VFR. Wind SSE at 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR with SHRA Likely. ISOLD TSRA. Wind S 10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind SW at 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JRB



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