Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 112332
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL END BY EVENING AS THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SMALL CAPE DIMINISHES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA WITH BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS IN STRATOCU. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR WITH THE LOW
CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
WI OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH PATCHY FROST
MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO.

THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL
MOVE ACROSS MN/WI ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT PASSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY
IS SHOWN AS WELL. WRF SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RAIN BASICALLY TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SLIDE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN TURN IT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN WI ON FRIDAY. THIS JUST SKIMS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN METRO. CONTINUITY HAS BEEN BEST ON THE FRIDAY FORECAST
WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE GFS TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. LIKELY
POPS REMAIN ACROSS SE MN FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY WITH POPS
DIMINISHING TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE METRO. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
AGAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MN AND SMALL POPS
WERE ADDED.

NO REAL BIG CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT IN THE LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA TO THE LOWER
40S FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE EARLY SEASON FROST-FREEZE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS A MINOR
PRECIP CHANCE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFY BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT ON A CHILLY NIGHT
UNFOLDING AS A 1030 MB HIGH SETTLERS OVER KANSAS CITY...WITH ITS
RIDGE AXIS WORKING UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEAR AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SO
WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOOKING AT
THE TOP TWO CIPS ANALOGS BASED ON THE NAM FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...SEP 9 2008 AND SEP 13 1989...LOWS AT MSP THOSE MORNINGS
RANGED FROM 44 TO 41...WHILE STC MADE IT DOWN TO 34 AND 32. THIS
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS
TO RAISE LOWS INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE URBAN CORE...AND LOWER
LOWS IN WRN WI A COUPLE OF DEGREES. FROST IS LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE WRN MN...WHERE RETURN
FLOW WILL BE COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWS DOWN
AROUND 30 OUT IN RUSK/CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...SO BESIDE FROST
STATEMENTS...FUTURE SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MULL THE IDEA OF
A FREEZE WARNING AS WELL. FOR THE MPX AREA...THE MEDIAN FIRST DATE
FOR A FALL FREEZE /32 OR LESS/ IS THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER TO
THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER...SO ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
ABOUT 2 WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.

FOR THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE TWO WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS
MN. THE FIRST WILL COME ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DRIVE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. SREF PROBS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF I-94
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THE NE CWA
THEN. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE DROPPING FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS MN...WITH AN FGEN BAND OF PRECIP LOOKING TO SETUP IN
THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS WEAK FRONT. LIKE TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA THAT
WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE MID-LEVEL FORCING...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE 11.12
MODEL RUNS...WE DID SEE GUIDANCE SHIFT THE PRECIP SOUTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. MODEL BLEND WAS LIKELY NOT
AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH DRYING OUT POPS FROM THE NW FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT DID DRY IT OUT MONDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WE WILL BE IN DRY NW FLOW. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAKER IN THE GFS/ECMWF UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND...SO GOING FORECAST OF DRY WITH WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MODEL OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MULTIPLE CU CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW. A FEW ISOLD -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE IN SWRN AND CENTRAL MN DURG THE DAY TMRW IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST INSTABILITY AND A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED AND PRECIP WOULD BE INTERMITTENT
AND LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN N TO NW THRU TMRW WITH SPEEDS 10 KT
OR LESS.

KMSP...VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS AOA 5 KFT. SMALL CHC TO
SEE A FEW PASSING -SHRA TMRW AFTN DURG PEAK HEATING WITH SOME
MIDLVL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES FLOATING BY...BUT NOTHING THAT LOOKS
TO BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT. WINDS TO REMAIN AOB 10 KT WITH
DIRECTIONS BACKING FROM N TO NW TNGT THRU TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KNOTS.
SUN NGT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 5 KNOTS.
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA EARLY. WINDS NW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC






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