Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 230756
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYSTEM OF THE WEEK HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN DEW POINTS
20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK
EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WILL
BRUSH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING...NONE
OF WHICH WILL BE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE AREA FOR A TIME...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ROTATES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON BUT CYCLONIC
FLOW LINGERING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD DRIFT
OVER RUSK COUNTY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY
WILL BE THE WIND. A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW MID
20 TO LOW 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS WILL EASE...THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. THEREFORE...THINK THE AREA WILL BE
SPARED FROM RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOLER AND DRIER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
ALLOWS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY YET ON MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN.  BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
LOW IN THE MID 40S.

AS THE HIGH DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD BUILDING HEIGHTS TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...
THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL MOVEMENT OF ANY
SHORT WAVE THAT RIDES OVER THE RIDGE WITH THE RESULTANT RAIN THREAT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN TRIES
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF CIRCULATION NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS AND STALLS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW MODEL TRENDS AND HOPE THEY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST TONIGHT. KRNH AND KEAU WILL SEE THESE SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 6Z-7Z /KEAU MIGHT BE A LITTLE LONGER/ BEFORE
THEY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A DRY SLOT IN THE CLOUD COVER
BEHIND THE SHOWERS WITH MVFR STRATUS UPSTREAM IN THE DAKOTAS - AND
THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER ON THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS SEEM ARE LIKELY AT KAXN/KRWF/KSTC AND
POSSIBLE AT KMSP/KRNH/KEAU. STRONG W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND WILL NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS NEAR OR GREATER THAN 30KTS.

KMSP...

THE SHOWERS ARE HANGING AROUND RIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL GET FARTHER EAST WITH TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...BUT WE ARE FAR LESS CONFIDENT IN CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW
1700FT. 1500FT CEILINGS LOOK PROBABLE IN WESTERN MN...BUT WILL
PROBABLY LIFT A FEW HUNDRED FEET BY THE TIME THEY REACH EAST
CENTRAL MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND W/SW 5-7KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...CLF



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