Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 180851
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

SUB-1000MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MN CONTINUES TO FACILITATE WINDY
CONDITIONS AND STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SLIGHT LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIP
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY /SUSTAINED 30 MPH/...SO WILL
NOT REISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN MN AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLIP SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HAVE MAINTED HIGH
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD NORTHERN WI...AND ALSO
INCLUDED SPRINKLES FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE TWIN CITIES AND
AREAS DOWN TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...AVERAGING 25 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN WEST
CENTRAL MN NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH ANTICIPATED LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF A FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY GIVEN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG IN UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE IN THE 6-10 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED
WITH A COOL PERIOD THIS WEEK...THEN WETTER NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START THIS WEEK FROM THE W-NW
DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST...SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
BASICALLY THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRY E/NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHERN MN. EVEN
IN THIS AREA...VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED...BUT THE DENSER
CLOUD COVER...AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WILL KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORTH IN CENTRAL MN WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL
OCCUR.

CLIMATOLOGY...THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AFTN HIGHS
SLOWLY REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE SW CONUS...AND A STRONGER RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT MODELS
DEPICTION OF THE MAIN SFC FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF MN/IA BORDER...MN
AND WESTERN WI MAY BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
SHRA/TSRA...BUT NOT AS WARM. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS STRENGTHENS AND ALLOWS THIS SFC FRONT TO MOVE
FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO MN. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE SVR WX
CHANCES AS WE WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN EASTERN MN THROUGH BY 03Z AND
ABOUT 04-05Z IN WESTERN WI. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF VFR IN
MN /LONGER IN WI/ BEFORE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK MOVES IN LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. IFR IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1500-2500FT FOR CLOUD BASES. STRONG WINDS
RIGHT ALONG OR BEHIND THE SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50MPH BEING OBSERVED AT MANY SITES.

KMSP...
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...BUT THE BIG CONCERN IS NOW THE STRONG SW
WINDS AND CROSSWIND COMPONENT THAT HAS CAUGHT US A LITTLE OFF
GAURD. WE THIN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 03Z...BACK
UNDER 35KTS...BUT THE DIRECTION MAY TAKE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS /05Z/
TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 2000-2200FT CEILINGS AT THE AIRPORT BEFORE THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...BUT WE ARE NOT TOO CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE
BELOW 1700FT. WE SHOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA AT THE 06Z AND 09Z
UPDATES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS N AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NNW 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF


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