Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 042022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST IS THE THREAT OF FROST
TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY.

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WAS QUITE LOW AND IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE SYSTEM OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
PRECIPITOUSLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINTS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S COMMON. THE LOWER 30S ARE MAINLY CONFINED FROM RUSK
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WHERE A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CONCERN WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IN THE FACT THAT IT MAY BE TOO COLD OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE DAMAGE FROM THE FROST MAY BE OVER BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS THICKEN SO THE FROST ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN PLACE.

THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEADS INTO THE SECOND CONCERN
OF WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOUDINESS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND WAA
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURATION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA WAS MOST
NOTABLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE NAM 300K
THETA SURFACE. THIS MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VARIOUS CAMS INCLUDING THE HOPRWRF-TS...NAMNEST...NSSL AND HRRR SHOW
AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AFTER
06Z AND PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. SURROUNDING OFFICES
WERE NOT SOLD ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH A SPRINKLE
FORECAST. WE USED A VARIETY OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS AND INTRODUCED
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING FROM LADYSMITH
THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. LITTLE CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN EAU CLAIRE TO
THE LOWER 80S IN CANBY AND MORRIS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LONGER TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY/INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST A BIT FASTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST DETERMINISITIC RUNS. THE SREF AND 12Z NAM ARE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION BY 00Z SAT. IT SHOULD BE
POSITIONED NEAR A KJMR-KSTC-KMOX LINE AT THAT TIME. STILL SEE A
GOOD THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 85-90F LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL/SRN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THERE REMAINS WEAK FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SMALL CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD
AND TRAIL THEM OFF THROUGH 12Z SAT.

COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
THE WISCONSIN FISHING OPENER ALONG WITH MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF CIRCULATION. THE GFS
CARRIES MUCH OF THE SYSTEM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN THIRD AFFECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF LIFTING A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS
OVER THE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
GENERALLY CLOUDIER/COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE BLENDED MODEL POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TWO CONCERNS THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. NW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMON FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 22Z ALONG
WITH A FEW-SCT050-060. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT SSW ON THURSDAY. THE SECOND CONCERN
IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIME FRAME. THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME IS AT KEAU WHERE A
PROB30 GROUPS WAS USED. INDICATED VCSH AT KRNH AND KMSP.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE 23Z-24Z PERIOD. SMALL THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12Z-16Z PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH


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