Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 021040
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
640 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DIMINISHING/EXITING
RAINFALL WILL SUSTAIN AN EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWEST CIGS PREVALENT THIS MORNING /IFR/...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
INTO MVFR THEREAFTER AS DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL DRYING PROVIDE
AN INCREASING INFLUENCE.  WITH THAT SAID...LOSS OF CEILING LIKELY A
SLOW PROCESS /PARTICULARLY PTK SOUTHWARD/...AWAITING THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL SUPPORT TOWARD EVENING.  MODEST N-NE WIND HOLDS ALL
LOCATIONS TODAY.

FOR DTW...EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS TRENDING FROM IFR INTO MVFR TODAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING...FAVORED TRANSTION DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD.  LOSS OF CEILING BELOW 5000 FT LIKELY NOT UNTIL
CLOSER TO 00Z.  WINDS IN THE 7-10 KT RANGE AT A 020-030 DIRECTION
TODAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5K FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S WAVE WILL BE OF
INSUFFICIENT DEPTH TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5KFT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF I-69 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
EXISTS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT LOW 60S
MAY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE CLEARING IS FORECAST BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED JET OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS MODELED
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
IMPACT WILL BE A NOTABLY WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WSW GRADIENT AND A CONSIDERABLY
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER NEARLY FULL EARLY MAY INSOLATION. MIXING
DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AN AFTERNOON CU UP AND AREAWIDE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S GIVEN PROGGED LCL AT 4500 FT. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
FRONT AND CONVERGENT/LINEAR FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. SUSPECT
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE NARROW LEADING TO A SHORT 3 TO 4 HOUR
DURATION FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TRAILING
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND A BIT OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE WRAP THROUGH.

MARINE...

DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.  A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH ALL
WATERWAYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LAKE HURON...WHERE A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY.

HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
EAST...LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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