Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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639
FXUS63 KDTX 041054
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
554 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016


.AVIATION...

WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SRN MI SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN
CEILING HEIGHTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
DEEPENING COLD POOL WILL OVERSPREAD SRN MI TODAY...WHICH WILL LIFT
INVERSION BASES AND CAUSE A GRADUAL RISE IN PREVAILING CEILING
HEIGHTS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND/OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY REDUCE CIGS TO MVFR. SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AN ADDED BOOST OF DIURNAL HEATING. HI RES MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SUGGEST A RELEASE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
MI...TRAVERSING SE MI /MAINLY FROM FNT SOUTH/ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...ONGOING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF METRO BY LATE MORNING. A SLIGHT
BACKING OF THE FLOW TO THE W-SW FORECAST OVER LAKE MI THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA /MAINLY IN THE 17Z TO 22Z TIME
FRAME/.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
  LOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DISCUSSION...

CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN WITH SOME QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE FOCUS GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SURFACE TROUGHING
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A
SLIGHT DECLINE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER.  MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH AN
INCREASE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASING LAPSE RATES...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND
MOISTURE STILL IN THE COLUMN WILL AID IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH HEIGHTS RISING BY THE
EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA. WINDS UNDER THIS
INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO PULLS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM TREKS QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 40 DEGREES.

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.  AS THE WAVE ON SATURDAY DEPARTS...ANOTHER WAVE IS THEN
ADVERTISED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND LATE SUNDAY.  LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WITH THIS WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COME
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST/EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

A WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...ONE
ON FRIDAY AND ONE ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST WAVE. THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER...PROMOTING A LONGER PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY /WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KNOTS/.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
VEERING OF THE WIND TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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