758
FXUS63 KDTX 070700
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
300 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some lingering showers possible near the Ohio border early today.
Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions expected.

- Dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday.

- Shower and storm potential returns mid-late week with temperatures
trending above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Slow moving cold frontal boundary still anchored across southern
lower Mi early this morning will vacate the region to the south
through the latter half of the morning. Meaningful post-frontal
advective process effectively establishing an extensive canopy of
low stratus as a sufficiently moist low level environment quickly
saturates. This cloud likely too hold into the early afternoon,
before a secondary southward push of drier air arrives coincident
with increasingly influential daytime mixing in prevailing north
flow. Any lingering shower potential prior to fropa near ths Ohio
border remains of limited coverage. Notably cooler and less humid for
the peak heating period, with sufficient stability to maintain dry
conditions. Onshore flow off lake Huron mutes the diurnal temperature
recovery more significantly across the thumb region, capping highs
in the low to mid 70s. Elsewhere, recovery in temperature toward the
upper 70s/lower 80s anticipated.

High pressure fixated over the northern great lakes will govern
conditions tonight and Tuesday. This ensures a dry and stable
profile holds this period. Despite existing low level easterly flow,
a high degree of insolation potential affords modest modification of
the resident airmass Tuesday. Late day readings peaking in the low
to mid 80s - or right around average.

Generally zonal mid level flow will give way to broad, lower
amplitude troughing during the latter half of the week. This
transition driven by an initial window of modest falls Tuesday night
and Wednesday as minor shortwave energy embedded within the flow
traverses the region. This will draw slightly greater moisture
content into the region starting Wednesday. Typical diurnal boundary
layer destablization with steeper lapse rates gaining greater depth
given slight mid level cooling under the suppressed mid level
height field. Plausible this environment effectively removes any
lingering capping concerns, affording some pockets of free convective
development. Otherwise, reliance on still ill-defined sources of
ascent, likely in the form of lake breeze/outflow interaction and/or
regions of greater differential heating and moisture convergence.
Forecast will continue to outline a generic chance mention targeting
the afternoon and evening hours. Limited wind magnitude within this
pattern precludes a more organized convective risk.

&&

.MARINE...

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms early today mainly around
western Lake Erie will exit by midday as drier air increases
influence. Otherwise, post-frontal northerly winds will exist today,
peaking around 20 knots over lake Huron. Dry conditions with
generally light wind and wave action expected tonight and Tuesday as
high pressure establishes control. Turning warmer and more humid
Wednesday and Thursday, offering a favorable underlying environment
for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development. Winds
generally remain under 20 knots outside of any storms through this
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

AVIATION...

The cold front has settled south of MBS and is set to pass FNT at or
soon after forecast issuance. A definitive northerly wind shift and
onset of IFR ceiling are the tracers on north to south progress
through SE Mi. The 500 mb trough trails the surface front just
enough to support a stray shower along and shortly behind the front.
Upstream ceiling observations across northern Lower Mi are solidly
IFR which adds confidence to the late night forecast as the front
moves slowly but steadily south to DTW before sunrise. IFR to MVFR
ceiling then holds for several hours during the morning until
breaking out into broken VFR coverage for the afternoon. Light
northerly wind continues through the day as high pressure gradually
assumes control into Monday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... There is lingering low probability for
thunderstorms late tonight as a cold front approaches from the north
and moves through the D21/DTW airspace before sunrise.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late tonight.

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and through the
  morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....BT


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