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000
FXUS63 KDTX 261752
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AVIATION
CONDITIONS OVER SE MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE STRONG WINTER STORM UNFOLDING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONCERNS HOW MUCH WESTWARD REACH MVFR
STRATOCU WILL HAVE FROM LAKE HURON TODAY AND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS THE EAST COAST STORM INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE HURON...
LAKE ERIE...AND LAKE ONTARIO GIVEN THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILING TO POSSIBLY REACH FNT AND MBS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
ANYTHING TO ARRIVE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ARE CLEAR. EXPECT COVERAGE WILL
DEVELOP AND EXPAND WESTWARD AFTER SUNSET WITHIN A FAVORABLE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND THEN BE SUBJECT TO IMPROVEMENT AS LOW LEVEL
WIND BACKS TOWARD THE NORTH WITH TIME DURING TUESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MODERATE FOR CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO FEED INTO AREA FROM LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT...IS COMPLICATED
BY A TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST AS VARIOUS SOURCES OF CLOUDS WILL EXIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE PHASING INTO MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE CWA PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM LAKE HURON WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHERN THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE ERODING AND
SHIFTING NORTH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. DURING THE WHOLE TIME...ADDITIONAL HIGH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL BACK INTO AREA AS ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIGS SHARPLY INTO DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH/STORM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS.

BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
AND LOWER CLOUDS PIVOTING BACK INTO OR NEAR PARTS OF AREA FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST COAST SYSTEM BOMBS
OUT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF THE
THUMB MAY BE THE EXCEPTION AS DRIER LOW FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
WILL WEDGE IN BETWEEN THESE OTHER TWO MOISTURE SOURCES. GIVEN THIS
EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PART OF THE CWA...NOT AN
UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE BY ANY MEANS.

LONG TERM...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND FAR EAST PACIFIC. TO THE EAST, A CLIPPER
HAS BEGUN THE EARLY STAGES OF A RAPID DEVELOPMENT SEQUENCE INTO A
CLASSIC COASTAL CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY AS IT WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN THESE TWO
PRIMARY PLAYERS IN THE LONGWAVE CONFIGURATION. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
WILL, HOWEVER, BEGIN TO FEEL THE PINCH OF EAST PAC TROUGH IN
RELATIVELY SHORT ORDER AS IT ABSORBS THE BAJA LOW AND CAUSES RAPID
LONGWAVE DEAMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS THE ENERGY
RACES EAST. THIS WILL IN TURN SHUNT A STOUT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CWA ON TUES, ENSURING THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DESPITE LARGE CYCLONE TO THE EAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL THUS BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BENEATH A STOUT MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DIURNAL CLOUD POTENTIAL, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY
IN THE NAM TO OVERESTIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS. A SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD FORECAST FAVORS HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SENSITIVE TO CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS
WITHIN QUICK-MOVING NW FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS PLAYS A REASONABLE MIDDLE-GROUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL
TAKE SHAPE AS AFOREMENTIONED PAC ENERGY SUPPORTS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS CLOSE TO
30 DEGREES WEDNESDAY.

A CLIPPER IS FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS AT
LEAST 1-3" WITH RESPECTABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE, BUT HURT BY A
WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS
JUNCTURE ARISE PRIMARILY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WITH ORIGINS IN TODAY`S BAJA LOW. TOO EARLY TO SLICE AND
DICE DETAILS MUCH, BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DOMINANT
NORTHERN WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT BOTH A DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. GFS/GEM ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN TIED TO THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER, BUT MORE MATURE, CIRCULATION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MORE RESPECTABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE
AND HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. GOT THE BALL ROLLING BY INTRODUCING A
GENERAL 1-2" FOR WED NIGHT/THURS.

MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL CAUSE AN UPTICK
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, BUT GUSTINESS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO WARM STABLE
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A RENEWED STRETCH OF
ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE
BOUTS OF ARCTIC AIR TRAVERSE THE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


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