Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 020704
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
304 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S WAVE WILL BE OF
INSUFFICIENT DEPTH TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5KFT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF I-69 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
EXISTS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT LOW 60S
MAY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE CLEARING IS FORECAST BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED JET OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS MODELED
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
IMPACT WILL BE A NOTABLY WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WSW GRADIENT AND A CONSIDERABLY
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER NEARLY FULL EARLY MAY INSOLATION. MIXING
DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AN AFTERNOON CU UP AND AREAWIDE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S GIVEN PROGGED LCL AT 4500 FT. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
FRONT AND CONVERGENT/LINEAR FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. SUSPECT
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE NARROW LEADING TO A SHORT 3 TO 4 HOUR
DURATION FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TRAILING
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND A BIT OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE WRAP THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.  A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH ALL
WATERWAYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LAKE HURON...WHERE A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
EAST...LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WELL ORGANIZED ARC OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE INBOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT PROGS SUPPORTING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 69 CORRIDOR. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS REMOVED
RAINFALL MENTION FOR KMBS...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT LARGELY TO THE
PREVIOUS TAF NARRATIVES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/BRIEF VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KDTW...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE TAF YET. FEEL THERE
IS JUST TOO LOW OF A CHANCE AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE
COLUMN...UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LONGEST STRETCH/DURATION OF THE
COMPACT RADIUS DEFORMATION FORCING. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE
OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...JUST A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THIS SLIDES INTO DETROIT. REFRAINED FROM LIFR IN THE TAFS
ATTM...WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT UPSTREAM. PERSISTENT
OVERCAST IS FORECASTED FOR MONDAY BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BETTER
SIGNAL FOR CIG TREND TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...CIGS WILL LOWER BACK INTO IFR MOMENTARILY WITH GREATEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION SUPPORT WASHING ACROSS SOTUHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR BUT NO UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS ATTM. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WORK UP THE FRONTAL SLOPE WHICH SEVERLY
COMPROMISES ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HERE. THERE IS A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SIGNAL IN SUPPORT FOR MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5KFT

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 200 FT 6-12Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....
AVIATION.....MR


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