Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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107
FXUS63 KDTX 220350
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016


.AVIATION...

Band of lower VFR BKN ceilings in the 8-10kft range will pivot thru
the terminals overnight as shortwave drops southeast through the
area. Light NW flow will become N and then NNE with the passage of
this system with gusts to 15 knots or better by midday Sunday as
boundary layer mixing increases. Diurnal cumulus on Sunday should
remain generally SCT as dry air works into area from high pressure
to the north. Winds will also diminish quickly with the loss of
daytime heating as this high edges south and the pressure gradient
slackens.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sat May 21 2016

DISCUSSION...

Highly amplified and slowly evolving longwave pattern will nudge
east over the next 12 hours as the cyclonic gyre over the lower
great lakes ingests additional energy diving out of Ontario tonight
and closes off over the northern Appalachians. This place Southeast
Michigan in a favorable position for prolonged dry northerly flow
for the balance of the day on Sunday. Increasingly dry air and
strengthening subsidence will provide clear skies for the balance of
the day Sunday, with the exception of some morning cloud debris
associated with the aforementioned Ontario wave. Light cold
advection taking place within the northerly gradient flow will lower
850mb temperatures by a couple of degrees leading to highs similar
to today in spite of the increased insolation. The exception will be
the Thumb region where marine-modified air will limit mixing depths
and therefore limit highs to the low to mid 60s. A similar story for
Monday as the pattern trudges eastward. The exit of the low-level
thermal trough as columnar warmth increases beneath the ridge will
raise the potential ceiling on high temperatures. At the same time,
the antecedent dry air characterized by dewpoints in the low 40s and
very strong subsidence will once again scour the column of any cloud
save for some stray cirrus streaming in around the closed low over
the east coast. Highs will easily reach the mid to upper 70s by
Monday afternoon in this regime.

The extended forecast looks relatively wet starting midweek. Expect
increasing clouds Tuesday afternoon/evening ahead of a developing
area of low pressure over the central plains and midwest. By
Wednesday afternoon/evening this low will begin its transit through
the Great Lakes region in earnest...bringing in abundant warm/humid
air and better chances for showers and thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the remainder of the
week.

MARINE...

High pressure and a weak pressure gradient will maintain the light
winds across the local waters this weekend. Light southerly winds
and warmer temperatures arrive early next week...leading to a chance
of showers and thunderstorms by mid week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...JVC/DE
MARINE.......CB


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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