Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 271653
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1253 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016


.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF MICHIGAN WILL KEEP DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
TO THICKEN AND LOWER STARTING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN ELEVATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN AFTER 11Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO FALL TO
MVFR...BUT DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP CEILINGS
JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET.

FOR DTW...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS REMAINING EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS. GUSTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 7KTS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO START IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AROUND 11Z...WITH SHOWER
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AT THE MID LEVELS.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET THURSDAY MORNING AND
  REMAINING THERE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE PLUMMETED IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA WHERE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN OVER AS CLOUDS SHIFTED
SOUTH.  THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OUT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPS DROP ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTH AND CURRENTLY ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  A CLEARING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW...THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION AS THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA AND ANOTHER WEAKER LOW TO THE WEST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST ENCROACHES ON THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL START PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY GIVEN A LITTLE INSTABILITY WORKING
IN...THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING.   SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY TO BE DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN.  THIS RIDGING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS YET ANOTHER LOW LOOKS
TO SWEEP ACROSS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  WHILE COOLER TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 50S...STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 60S IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EPSECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE HURON. WHILE
A STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...WAVES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WIND
WINDS HOLD CLOSER TO 10 OR 12 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART.

HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BULK
OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ON STEADY NORTHEAST FLOW...LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO
AND MICHIGAN STATE LINE COULD RECEIVE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
AS FORCING NEARER THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY LONGER
DURATION EVENT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....HLO
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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