Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 261050
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
650 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015


.AVIATION...

LOWER VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL TREND FROM OVC TO BKN TODAY AS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FINALLY SCATTER
OUT MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST INTO AREA. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW AFTER A DAY OF WNW FLOW 5-10 KNOTS.

FOR DTW...CIGS SHOULD BOUNCE AROUND AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 5KFT TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EVEN AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OPENS AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
TODAY. MOSTLY SKIES WILL ALSO HOLD MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE DAY.
HENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WHERE HIGHS HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH PERHAPS A 70 DEGREE READING DETROIT SOUTH AS SOME SUN BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RISE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDING EAST INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROMOTE BETTER CLEARING AND EXPECT TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BETWEEN THESE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH...WOULD ANTICIPATE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOW/MID 50S COMMON AND A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF UPPER 40S LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69
CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON THURSDAY. 850 MB THERMAL TROF REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CLEARING
CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING...QUICKLY HAVE BKN CU BY NOON...ONLY
TO HAVE DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING
INTO THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERING OF THE CU FIELD.
WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT
IN THE THUMB REGION WITH SOME LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WARM ABOUT 2C AND JUST ANY SUN WILL GIVE THE TEMPS A SOLID BOOST.

CLEAR SKIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

FOR FRIDAY...THE NEXT WAVE REMAINS UPSTREAM OF LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START...BUT BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM INCREASING 500-300 MB
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND HAVE NO
REASON TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM THAT.

THAT WAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  IT ALSO MOVES RATHER SLOWLY TOO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL HAVE JUST
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. 500MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY AND LATER NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPS. 00Z GFS SUGGESTS A BONAFIDE HEAT
WAVE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER 00Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE THAT
AGRESSIVE.

MARINE...

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL FINALLY
START TO DECREASE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT.

COLD AIR REMAINING OVER OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL CREATE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF
WATERSPOUTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......RBP


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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