Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 160757
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING OFF NEAR RECORD LOWS
THANKS TO CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. IT HELPS THAT DETROIT AND FLINT BROKE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS
YESTERDAY AND SAGINAW WAS ONLY A DEGREE AWAY. NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS ALSO BOOSTED BY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THAT MADE IT
THROUGH THE COLD AFTERNOON YESTERDAY...AT LEAST OUTSIDE OF THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH
THIN CIRRUS DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP READINGS REBOUND ABOVE
FREEZING BY NOON BEFORE THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN NOTICEABLY FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S MAY
BE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE INLAND BUT LOOK SUFFICIENTLY RESTRAINED
IN THE MID 30S NEAR LAKE HURON. DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A SE WIND OVER
THE REGION AND ONSHORE INTO THE THUMB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THE PLAINS SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS DEEP SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD
OF THE WAVE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE CLOUD FIELD AND SOME VIRGA BUT
HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL FORCE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR NORTH. DRY AIR WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BELOW 800 MB BY THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY THEN. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT THE
HIGH END OF GUIDANCE. THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED IN THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ON TRACK
TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE UNDERGOING DRAMATIC WEAKENING HOWEVER...IN FAVOR OF MORE
ROBUST UPSTREAM ENERGY...WHICH WILL BE WORKING THROUGH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOOSENING AND SURFACE LOW OPENING UP ON
THURSDAY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO RISE
TO 2.5 C SUPPORTING MAXES IN UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
AIRMASS IN PLACE LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WITH
THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE DAY. THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY YIELD DEVELOPING SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NARROW
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...AS HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO ARRIVE. 00Z MODELS (GFS/EURO/CANADIAN/UKMET)
ALL IN AGREEMENT NOW WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS EAST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 00Z SATURDAY. STILL...GFS REMAINS
A HOLDOUT FOR A STRONGER...SOMEWHAT PHASED SYSTEM. PREFERENCE IS
WITH MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS (NON-GFS)...AND WILL JUST CARRY
MODERATE CHANCE POPS DURING FRIDAY. WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR COMING IN TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE SHUT OFF BY THE TIME THIS
OCCURS. STILL...850 MB TEMPS WILL SNEAK DOWN INTO THE LOW NEGATIVE
SINGLE NUMBERS SATURDAY MORNING...PRODUCING A CHILLY START TO THE
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS REBOUND QUICKLY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO MAKE
A RUN TOWARD 60 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...AS
00Z EURO INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS RISING UP TO 8 C...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT MUCH WARMER READINGS...BUT CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
LEADS TO MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 30 KNOTS TONIGHT. LONG FETCH WILL LEAD TO WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4
FEET OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...BUT NO SUCH CONCERNS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1253 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGING AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE BOTTOM OF THE STABLE LAYER IS FORECASTED
TO LOWER DOWN TO 3500-4000 FT AGL DURING THE DAY WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).








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