Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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439
FXUS65 KABQ 170539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1039 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

Broad band of deep moisture over central and southern NM to gradually
be suppressed southward thru 17/12Z. Scattered light rain, high
terain snow and fog within the band will result in occasional mt
obscurations in MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys but is expected to diminish
by 17/12Z. Winds will become more nwly over nrn and central NM and
will strengthen as surface low pressure develops over ne NM with some
gusts to around 40kt along the Sangre de Cristo mts by 17/10Z. A
surface wind shift over the ne and east central plains expected by
17/15Z as the surface low sags southward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST Fri Feb 16 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and high elevation snow continues across the southern half of
New Mexico this afternoon. This precipitation will continue through
the evening before dissipating after midnight. Thereafter, fog will
be possible in low lying areas. Quieter and warmer weather is in
store for Saturday with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
The wind machine will crank up over the weekend, with gusts over 50
mph possible each day. An active pattern will continue into next
week, providing additional chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Much needed rain and high elevation snow continues across southern
NM this afternoon. Precipitation should quickly end near or shortly
after midnight tonight. Snowfall amounts could be a couple more
inches above 9000-9500 feet. Fog may develop across low lying area
for areas that received precip today.

Otherwise, another back door cold front will move into the northeast
early Saturday. Despite this, temperatures will warm considerably
area wide. High temperatures will be up to 10 degrees above normal.

Sunday will feel more like springtime as temperatures continue to
rise, especially across the east, but a deepening lee side surface
trough will kick up wind speeds. Will likely need wind advisories
across much of northeast NM, though at least breezy conditions are
expected areawide. Winds will stay elevated Sunday night, keeping
temperatures warm. A weak trough traversing southern AZ may spark a
few sprinkles/flurries across the southwest.

Wind speeds will crank up further on Monday as the main upper level
trough dives southward across the Great Basin and the mid level jet
crosses NM. 700 mb winds increase to between 50 and 60 kts as the
surface low near the NM/CO border deepens to 992 mb. High mixing
heights for February combined with the winds should yield strong to
potentially damaging winds across NM with areas of blowing dust
likely.  Following the strong winds, a Pacific cold front will race
into the state Monday night and Tuesday, dropping temperatures
several degrees. Snow may also develop along and behind the front as
well. The ECMWF keeps precip lingering through much of Tuesday as
the trough axis lags behind the GFS. Regardless of the trough axis
position, Tuesday looks breezy, and with the colder temperatures,
wind chills will be in the 20s and 30s for much of central and
western NM.

The extended looks to remain active as a wave train continues to
impact the state. Fortunately, this will mean more chances for
precipitation. Stay tuned.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread light rain and very high elevation snow continues moving
slowly east-northeast across southern portions of the area. The bulk
of the wetting precipitation will fall along and south of the US-60
corridor east of the Magdalena Mts. Overnight humidity recoveries
will be excellent for nearly the entire area. The base of the upper
level wave responsible for all the moisture over NM will shift east
late tonight and scour out the airmass well southeast of the region
for Saturday. Northwest flow will trend winds and temps upward with
lower humidity. East slopes of north-south mountain range will see
periodic mountain wave action. A weak east-southeast wind shift will
slide into eastern NM during the afternoon with little impact.

Flow aloft will quickly transition to the southwest Saturday night
and ridge top winds will increase. Sunday will feature much windier
conditions as a surface low deepens to near 993mb over southeastern
Colorado. Sub-critical humidity, strong southwest winds, well above
normal temperatures, and moderate to high haines will impact the
northeastern corner of NM Sunday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch may
be required if trends continue with greater coverage.

Winds will remain elevated Sunday night then really start ripping
Monday across the entire area ahead of the next large scale upper
level trough. Widespread strong winds with gusts between 50 and 60
mph are possible for NM however temperatures begin to cool and low
level moisture advection increases from the southwest. Meanwhile,
higher terrain snow will begin developing along southwest facing
slopes of the northern and western high terrain Monday night as a
potent cold front approaches the region. This next system looks to
be much, much colder than the most recent storm system.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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