000
FXUS65 KABQ 242200
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
AS PART OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR OUT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT
BASIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY...PEAK MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH
TUESDAY...FALLING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF
TUESDAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN NM WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...NOTABLY ACROSS THE NE. THE MELTING SNOWPACK WILL ALSO PLAY
A MAJOR ROLE IN TEMPS. TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD HIGHER RES MODEL
OUTPUT TO TRY AND CAPTURE THESE IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY IN PECOS
VALLEY. CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AS TODAY...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH BUT CLEARER SKIES TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MOST LOCALES...BUT LOCAL SNOW EFFECTS
COULD ALTER THAT SLIGHTLY.

THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL TRAJECTORY OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST MEXICAN COAST AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE STARTING TO ALIGN ON THE POSITION OF THE LOWS
CENTER...WITH IT OFF THE SW COAST OF CA MONDAY...WEAKENING AND
OVER CENTRAL NV TUESDAY...AND BECOMING A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS PATH WILL LEAD TO
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SW NM MONDAY...PEAKING ACROSS
W NM TUESDAY...AND DWINDLING ACROSS THE NW WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...QPF VALUES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE IMPRESSIVE...AS MODELS HAVE PWAT VALUES NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN ABQ...INCLUDING THE HIGH RES
NAM MODEL DEPICTING PWATS THAT WOULD BE THE HIGHEST RECORDED IN
JANUARY AT 0.77 INCHES. LOOKING AT ANALOG EVENTS...THIS PATTERN IS
MOST SIMILAR TO A 2003 FEBRUARY 13TH EVENT...WHICH SAW PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NM SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF PRECIP. IT ALSO SHOWS
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS THE
SANDIA MTNS. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM IF THIS HOLDS...AND FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MAY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS AS EVENT CLOSES IN. BUT WILL HOLD
OF FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CONUS CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND A ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS LOW WILL
BE THE SYSTEM TO MONITOR FOR THE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...LACK OF CONFIDENCE PERSISTS AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY DIFFERENT PICTURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS COULD BE A MAJOR WINTER SYSTEM
IF TIMING OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS...CLOSED LOWS...AND POSITIONING
TIMES UP...AS THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEPICT WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IMPACTS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NM WITH
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO WHAT
WAS SEEN ON THE GFS JUST YESTERDAY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT ACTIVE
WEATHER TO RETURN TO NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN AND MON THEN LEVELING OFF
TUE BEFORE SLIPPING SOMEWHAT LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK. IN FACT MON
THROUGH WED WILL SEE NEARLY ALL LOCALES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL NM
RUNNING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFFSHORE OF BAJA CA. WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT SFC WINDS AS A RESULT...POOR VENTILATION TO BE THE RULE
INTO SUN AND MON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT
DEWPOINTS TO BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACROSS E HALF NM BETWEEN LATE MORN
AND MID EVE DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME SNOW MELT. MINIMUM RH SHOULD
STAY IN OR ABOVE THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

BY MONDAY THE BAJA LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SWING SOME ENERGY AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SW AND W CENTRAL NM...THOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKENING TO SOME DEGREE. SOME RAIN WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SW
AND W CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA LATER MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BE VERY WARM SYSTEM FOR LATE JANUARY MAKING
SNOW LEVELS VERY HIGH...LIKELY NEAR OR ABOVE 10000 FEET ELEVATION.
AS SYSTEM WEAKENS SO WILL THE PRECIP DIMINISH AS IT MOVES NORTH AS
WELL.

SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE STATE INTO
THURSDAY AS A FRONT BACKS IN FROM THE NE. AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
INITIALLY TO BE PRETTY MILD WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT OR FRI WHEN A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER
VAST UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO STEER SOME COPIOUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...OVERRUNNING THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE GFS
MODEL REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF
WITH WETTING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NM INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE BAJA
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND TO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDINESS WILL
AFFECT THE NORTH THIRD AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF FCST AREA
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT IF NOT
ELIMINATE SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WELL...DESPITE THE THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DUE TO SNOW MELT TODAY. OTHERWISE SOME LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES
CAN BE EXPECTED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  47  19  52 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  15  51  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  15  48  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  16  53  15  54 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  48  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  11  48  12  51 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  50  21  52 /   0   0   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  19  63  29  56 /   0   0   5  20
CHAMA...........................  10  48  13  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  23  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  24  47  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  46 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  15  40  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   8  43   8  49 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  12  44  13  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  23  49  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  50  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  25  45  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  49  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  50  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  53  28  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  56  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  52  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  53  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  25  54  28  55 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  48  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  23  50  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  14  48  17  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  18  44  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  53  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  20  53  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  23  49  22  58 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  21  51  19  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  21  49  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  24  49  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  31  54  33  64 /   5   0   0   0
ROY.............................  25  46  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  54  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  22  55  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  28  55  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  28  56  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  19  50  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  51  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  50  28  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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