000
FXUS65 KABQ 081846 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION OR BLOWING SNOW NO
LONGER IN THE CARDS. EXPIRATION STATEMENT ON THE STREET...UPDATED
ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1045 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION HAZARDS WILL SHIFT IN FOCUS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE MAIN PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
SLIDE OVER THESE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS AND PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING
ABQ/AEG/SAF AND GUP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. SOME VARIABLE WIND GUSTS/DIRECTIONS AND MODERATELY
LOW CLOUDS WOULD IMPACT THESE SITES. THINKING MORE MTN TOP OBSCD
THAN MVFR BUT CANT RULE OUT MVFR AT GUP FOR SHORT DURATIONS.
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY TERMINAL LOCATIONS WITH MVFR CIGS.
CIGS WILL RAISE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES OVER ALL
TERMINAL SITES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. PERHAPS SOME DYING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
EVENING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING...CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. WARMER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ALLOW WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO RIDE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR FROM AVAILABLE OBS...IMPACT HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING. SNOW
CONTINUING AT KTAD THOUGH AND IMAGERY SHOWS SNOW POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN MTS AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW FORMING PER THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. HAVE TRIMMED
POPS BACK AT BIT FOR THE HIGHLIGHT AREAS...AS PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MORNING. FRONT ALSO CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF
THE STATE. IT/S NOT TERRIBLY COLD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
FREEZING ATTM...AND LIKELY WILL NOT GET ANY COLDER. UPSHOT IS WILL
REEVALUATE AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY CONSIDER CANCELLING SOME OR ALL OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS.

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING BUT SHOULD STILL
EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING OR BY MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE WARMER AND DRY UNDER A FLAT RIDGE. LOOK FOR SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZES MONDAY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST CENTRAL.
WINDS STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT SURGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AN UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
GREAT BASIN AND DESCENDS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND OVER
NM. ECMWF TIMING HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFERENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM
THIS MORNING AS ONE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NE NM AND ANOTHER GAINS
STRENGTH ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE IT DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL LIKELY ONLY AMOUNTS TO A FEW INCHES AT BEST...A BIT BELOW
ORIGINAL ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...AS THE 2ND TROUGH DIVES SW...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NM FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE
A HANDFUL OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE MOVED
THROUGH THE STATE...WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. IN
FACT...ALL AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH...GENERALLY BETWEEN
5 AND 15 DEGREES.

ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...GENERALLY AROUND
SUNSET. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...VERY
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S TODAY...BUT
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL AREAS
FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.

VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY...THOUGH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS AND SANTA ROSA DURING THE AFTN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE BACK BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NW. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SAME AREA AS MONDAY.  HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THUS...HIGH TEMPS WED WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL
FOR ALL AREAS.  SIMILARLY TO THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THEN
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTN.

THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS NM ON THURSDAY...THOUGH WHERE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION. REGARDLESS...AREAS WITH
WETTING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW AS EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN
AT ODDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THANKS TO THE
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VENTILATION FALLS ON SUNDAY AS
MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS LOWER. GOOD VENTILATION CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NM...BUT POOR VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING
SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY