Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 200550 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 PM MDT WED OCT 19 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Back door front has pushed through at least the lower gaps of the
central mt chain and bringing a period of moderate east to se
winds into the mid Rio Grande Valley including KABQ and KSAF.
Gusts between roughly 23kt and 32kt likely at least occasionally
at KABQ through mid to late morn Thursday, at least 5 to 10 kts
lower at KSAF. Look for some increase in fairly low upslope
stratus along and perhaps up to 60 miles east of central mt chain.
Some vsby- reducing smoke patches may linger through at least Thu
morn mainly west of central mt chain.
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT WED OCT 19 2016...
Breezy east canyon winds will occur overnight in the Albuquerque
metro area as the back door cold front pushes westward.
Overnight lows will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler, with freezing to
near freezing numbers favoring areas north of the I-40 corridor.
Cooler temperatures will continue Thursday but a warming trend
Friday into the weekend will rebound temperatures to above normal
readings. Precipitation chances look to increase Tuesday and
A tale of fronts impacted the state today with a back door cold
front pushing south across the eastern plains and a traditional
front from the northwest pushing across western and central areas.
Both fronts cooled temperatures by several degrees but near
normal values remained central and south. Otherwise, breezy to
locally windy conditions will continue into the evening hours with
below canyon winds impacting the Albuquerque metro area early
The back door cold front will continue to push westward toward
the Arizona border Thursday with a dominant east-southeast
surface flow before the front washes Thursday evening. The front
will help cool temperatures below normal central and east, with
near normal readings in the west. Meanwhile, upper level ridging
will build over the Desert Southwest Friday helping temperatures
to rebound above normal with veering south to southwest winds.
Over the weekend, warmer and drier conditions will peak as the
upper level ridge shifts eastward over the state. Temperatures
will climb 10 to 15 degrees above normal with locally breezy
southwest flow. Look for an increase in high clouds Sunday as the
upper level ridge breaks down as Pacific moisture filters in.
High clouds/mid level moisture will increase Monday as a potent
upper level low organizing over the Pacific Northwest sends a
weak shortwave trough toward NM. By Tuesday, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will favor western and central areas before
shifting to eastern areas overnight into early Wednesday.
As an upper trough drops southeastward through the central plains
states this evening, a backdoor cold front draped across eastern NM
will surge southwestward tonight into Thursday morning. A slightly
more moist airmass will follow the front, raising dewpoints across
central and western NM from the single digits to the low twenties by
sunrise Thursday. Below average temperatures are forecast across the
eastern two thirds of the state Thursday. The cool down will be
short-lived however as an upper level high builds in from the
southwest Thursday night and Friday. Above average temperatures
return Friday and continue into early next week. Light winds will be
the rule Friday with some increasing west and southwest winds due to
lee side trough development across northeast NM.
Models agree that the upper high shifts east of the state Sunday
night. The southwest flow aloft between the high and a closed upper
low dropping south along the west coast taps subtropical moisture
over/near Baja Sunday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances return
to western NM Monday and across the northwest half of the state
GFS, Canadian and ECMWF are in relatively good agreement that the
above mentioned closed low will slide east-southeast across the
Great Basin around mid week, likely dropping south over the Desert
Southwest toward the end of the week. ECMWF is farther east and not
as deep as the GFS and Canadian models but the model consensus is
that increasing convection across the eastern equatorial Pacific
will result in a closed low dropping farther south than at any
point so far this fall.