Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 311749 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.