488
FXUS65 KABQ 281930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
130 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Few showers and thunderstorms are forecast again on Sunday, but
  slow storm motion will keep a low risk for flash flooding,
  mainly on recent burn scars.

- Abundant moisture returns Monday through at least Thursday
  allowing for greater coverages of showers and thunderstorms each
  afternoon and evening. These will be efficient rain producing
  storms which will increase the risk of flash flooding,
  especially over recent burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The upper level high center over the NM/AZ border is allowing dry
northwest flow to move over northwest NM and deep mixing is
allowing this dry air to reach the surface. Near the moisture
gradient, with help from weak orographic lift, showers and a few
thunderstorms have developed over the northern mountains early
this afternoon. Storm coverage will remain isolated to scattered
in nature through the evening as storms generally drift toward the
south and southeast. These storms will be capable of gusty and
erratic winds, potentially greater than 40 mph. Storms will
diminish by the midnight hour. The upper high will move little
on Sunday, so more of the same is in store. Temperatures, however,
will climb a few degrees.

Many hi-resolution models show high (0.50-0.75") rainfall amounts,
both today and Sunday, across the Sacramento Mountains, especially
the southern Sacramento Mountains. Fortunately, the majority of
this activity appears to be south of the Salt burn scar. Though a
stray storm can`t be ruled out, confidence remains too low to
hoist a Flash Flood Watch through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Busier weather returns Monday. While the upper high remains
generally near the AZ/NM border, the mid level high will be
centered over southern CO. This will allow for deep layer moist
easterly flow to develop. PWATs will climb to near 1 inch in the
Rio Grande Valley (up from just above 0.5" later today), and close
to 1.25 inches across eastern NM (up from ~1"). The Central
Mountain Chain will be favored for storm development thanks to the
moist upslope flow. With a continuous moisture feed, these storms
will be capable of heavy rainfall. It`s also likely that the
storms along the Sandia Mountains will strengthen the east canyon
wind via outflow in the metro late Monday afternoon. Gusts should
easily exceed 40 mph, but have the potential to be much stronger.
As the east wind/outflow pushes westward additional storms may
develop along the east slopes of the western mountains late Monday
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, storms along the Central
Mountain Chain should congeal into an MCS as they drift/expand
south or southeast across the plains. Many areas should receive
greater than half inch of rain, though some areas could receive
considerably more. A Flash Flood Watch will be needed for the burn
scars, but potentially for additional areas as well.

Abundant cloud cover will be left over Monday night into Tuesday
morning across eastern NM, likely slowing the development of
additional storms on Tuesday. In fact, storms may end up favoring
areas from the Central Mountain Chain westward as the upper high
loses its grip a little bit more. Plus this area will see more
sunshine, increasing the instability.

By Wednesday, all eyes will be on the upper low that will have
been slowing inching eastward over California. With the upper high
losing its grip further, southerly flow will return to NM. By
Thursday, some moisture from soon-to-be tropical system offshore
of southern Mexico will also work up into NM. As such, this should
be a busy period with scattered to numerous efficient rain
producing storms. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially
over burn scar areas, with repeated rounds of rainfall. By
Friday, flow aloft will become more westerly, ushering in somewhat
drier air and limiting storm coverage slightly, especially across
northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms are developing over the northern
high terrain late this morning. These storms will become slightly
more numerous through the afternoon as they generally shift
slowly toward the south or southeast. These storms will be
capable of gusty and erratic winds before dissipating by 06Z Sun.
KLVS and KTCC may be impacted prior to sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Mainly dry conditions are expected west of the Central Mountain
Chain for the remainder of today and again Sunday as dry northwest
flow prevails over the area. A few virga showers and gusty winds
are likely, and couldn`t rule out a dry thunderstorm or two over
the West Central Basin and Range. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms of the wetter variety will impact areas
along and east of the Central Mountain Chain today and Sunday.
Deep easterly flow will bring moisture back to NM on Monday.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Central
Mountain Chain, and potentially along the east slopes of the
Western Mountains as well. Late Monday, several multi-cell
clusters will roll off the mountains forming an MCS. This will
bring rainfall, potentially heavy, across much of eastern NM.
Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
Tuesday through Thursday, first favoring the high terrain, then
rolling off by late afternoon. These storms will be capable of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Drier air may begin to work
back into NM starting Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  96  58  96 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  45  91  46  88 /   0   0   0  40
Cuba............................  52  91  54  87 /   0   0   0  40
Gallup..........................  45  93  47  93 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  51  89  55  87 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  47  92  53  89 /   0   0   0  30
Quemado.........................  53  90  56  90 /   0   0   0  30
Magdalena.......................  60  90  61  87 /   5   5   0  40
Datil...........................  55  88  56  86 /   5   5   0  40
Reserve.........................  51  96  52  95 /   5  10   5  30
Glenwood........................  56  98  57  99 /  10  10   5  40
Chama...........................  45  84  47  80 /   0   0   5  70
Los Alamos......................  61  86  61  80 /   0   0   5  60
Pecos...........................  56  88  55  81 /   0  10  10  70
Cerro/Questa....................  53  85  52  80 /   0  10  10  80
Red River.......................  42  75  43  69 /   0  20  10  80
Angel Fire......................  34  78  39  71 /   0  20  10  80
Taos............................  48  88  52  82 /   0  10   5  60
Mora............................  50  83  49  75 /   0  20  10  80
Espanola........................  57  95  59  89 /   0   0   5  50
Santa Fe........................  59  89  59  83 /   0   5   5  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  93  59  85 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  95  65  89 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  96  67  91 /   0   0   0  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  98  65  92 /   0   0   0  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  97  66  90 /   0   0   0  30
Belen...........................  61  98  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  62  98  64  92 /   0   0   0  40
Bosque Farms....................  61  98  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Corrales........................  63  98  65  92 /   0   0   0  30
Los Lunas.......................  62  98  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Placitas........................  62  94  63  88 /   0   0   0  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  97  65  92 /   0   0   0  30
Socorro.........................  64  99  66  95 /   5   0   0  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  90  58  85 /   0   0   5  60
Tijeras.........................  61  91  60  86 /   0   0   5  50
Edgewood........................  55  90  55  85 /   0   0   5  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  91  52  85 /   0   0   5  60
Clines Corners..................  56  86  55  78 /   5   5  10  50
Mountainair.....................  57  90  56  85 /   5   0   5  60
Gran Quivira....................  56  88  56  84 /  10   5  10  50
Carrizozo.......................  63  91  63  87 /  20  20  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  58  83  56  76 /  30  50  10  60
Capulin.........................  52  83  52  73 /  10  30  30  70
Raton...........................  52  88  52  80 /   5  30  20  70
Springer........................  52  89  53  81 /   5  30  20  70
Las Vegas.......................  52  87  52  77 /   5  30  10  70
Clayton.........................  61  91  60  81 /  20  30  40  40
Roy.............................  57  88  57  80 /  20  30  30  50
Conchas.........................  63  94  62  87 /  20  20  40  50
Santa Rosa......................  61  93  61  85 /  20  20  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  63  92  61  84 /  20  10  40  40
Clovis..........................  65  92  64  85 /  10   5  40  50
Portales........................  65  93  64  86 /  20   5  40  60
Fort Sumner.....................  64  93  63  89 /  20   5  20  50
Roswell.........................  67  95  68  91 /  10   5  10  40
Picacho.........................  62  91  62  86 /  20  20  10  50
Elk.............................  59  87  58  84 /  20  30  10  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34