Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261747 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Upper high to relocate over the Great Basin during the next 24
hours with subsequent changes in winds aloft. Mts occasionally
obscured in sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Localized
mvfr cigs/vsbys with wnd gusts to around 40kt possible in the
stronger storms. Sct showers may persist aft 05Z with isold
embedded thunderstorms.


With ample moisture in place and a weak disturbance passing north
of New Mexico, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected today. A mid-level high pressure system will build
over the Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday, steering some drier
air over New Mexico and inducing a warming trend. However, daily
rounds of showers and storms will continue to develop over the
mountains then move over lower elevations to the south and
southwest Wednesday through the end of the work week. The high
pressure system is forecast to shift east of New Mexico over the
weekend, where it should be able to steer richer monsoon moisture
over western parts of the state with cooler temperatures.


PWATs are progged to be a bit more moist than previously expected
today, varying around 1 - 1.75 inches with the wetter amounts
over the southeast plains. Thus, some locally heavy rainfall
appears likely.

Although drier air aloft is expected to advect southward over the
area as the high builds over the Great Basin during the mid to
latter part of the week, model surface dewpoints actually
increased in recent runs for this period due to a healthy
advection of low-level moisture into the area from the south and
southeast. High temperatures during this warmer stretch should
peak around 4 to 14 degrees above normal on Friday.

A cooling trend will then commence central and west Saturday and
especially Sunday as the upper high shifts east of NM. A somewhat
typical monsoon setup could be in store for at least the first
part of next week.



Deep moisture and instability over NM will generate another round of
showers and storms today with locally heavy rain. Recent burn scar
flooding will be a strong possibility as storm motions will be very
slow and erratic. High temperatures today will trend another couple
degrees cooler with thicker cloud cover and higher humidities. Most
of the area will see excellent rh recoveries overnight.

The upper high will drift east Wednesday and allow some dry air over
the Great Basin to seep eastward into the Four Corners. Guidance is
not as bullish drying out central and southern NM so a decent crop
of slow-moving storms is likely again. A deeper push of dry and more
stable air is shown now for Thursday and Friday as the center of mid
and upper level high pressure shifts east along the CO border. This
looks to be warmest and driest period of the week. Haines values of
5 and 6 are even shown for much of northern NM. Moisture recycling
will be play the dominant role for any showers and storms around the
high terrain.

Guidance continues to advertise an eastward shift to the upper high
center with a rather impressive moisture push west of the Divide by
Saturday and Sunday. Humidities trend much higher and temps trend
back to near normal across the west. Still concerned about how far
the high will shift east next week so want to remain conservative
with regards to the pattern next week. However, it is starting to
trend much more favorable for widespread showers and storms with
locally heavy rainfall. This may actually turn out to be the most
impressive monsoon circulation so far this season for NM and AZ.





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