000
FXUS65 KABQ 080553
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1053 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR AND MVFR CIGS COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN VCNTY OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...BUT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP IN THIS
AREA AFTER 10Z...MUCH MORE SO THOUGH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SAF
TAF SITE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO SCT OR AT LEAST
HIGHER CIGS BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z WITH SOME LOWERING AGAIN
THEREAFTER. SOME CIG HEIGHT RISES AT LVS AND PERHAPS ROW AFTER
11Z...BUT LESS LIKELY THAN SAF TO IMPROVE TO SCT CLOUDS. OTHERWISE
MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS LIKELY TO STAY IN PRETTY SOLID MVFR TO
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO SCT AFTER 15Z. CIGS AND
VSBY LOWERING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT FMN AND GUP WITH SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY MOST PEAKS
AND RANGES OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE MODESTLY OVERNIGHT WITH GREATER INCREASES HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT STRONGER WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
MORN AND AFTN SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013...
SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA JUST ABOVE THE COLD DOME KICKED IN AT THE PERFECT
TIME THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STARTING TO SEE SOME ERODING OF THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER NRN SOCORRO AND SRN VALENCIA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A GRADUAL BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN
BERNALILLO AND SANDOVAL COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. OVERALL MODEL TREND IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH AND A TAD DRIER WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE ENOUGH QPF FOR WARNING AMOUNTS OVER THE TUSAS AND HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND
WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS/LIFT AND STRONG OROGRAPHICS...LEFT
THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS. BLOWING SNOW LIKELY TO BE AN
ISSUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 NORTH TO THE COLORADO BORDER. OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE ALSO BE AN ISSUE ALONG US 64
BETWEEN TIERRA AMARILLA AND TRES PIEDRAS AND AT SKI RESORT LEVEL IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. INTRODUCED AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT ACTING
ON A RECENT SNOWFALL THAT HAS GONE WITHOUT MUCH IF ANY MELTING.
COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION AS LATEST OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS NOW
COMING IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH REGARD TO THE TRAILING BITTERLY COLD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR MONDAY. MODELS ARE NOW DEEP ENOUGH
WITH THE THIS FEATURE SO THAT MID LEVEL WINDS BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO
CREATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN OTHER
WORDS...ANOTHER SNOW BAND WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NM MONDAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS A RESULT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO WELL BELOW 32F
AREA-WIDE. WAVE TRANSLATES SEWD MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW AREAS COULD APPROACH OR BREAK RECORDS
FOR THE DATE AS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ALLOWS FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SPACE TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR THERE. OTHERWISE...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY APPROACH AVERAGE VALUES FOR MID DECEMBER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

33

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SHORT-LIVED WARMING AND DRYING TREND IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
AND DISLODGES THE FRONTAL LAYER...REPLACING IT WITH DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLY WINDS. DRY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST NOTABLE WETTING
OVER THE PEAKS AND ESPECIALLY WEST FACING SLOPES. STRONG WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS
EASILY EXCEEDING CRITICAL VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT COME CLOSE
TO CRITICAL VALUES. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE OVER A LARGER AREA
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT STILL HAVE A HARD TIME IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT WETTING. VENT RATES WILL STILL
BE GOOD ON MONDAY CENTRAL AND WEST THANKS TO THE SECOND TROUGH...BUT
POOR EAST. BY TUESDAY AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES-IN...VENT RATES WILL
TAKE A HIT AND BE POOR AREAWIDE. SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. A REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL HELP TO KEEP POOR VENT RATES GOING
INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD
AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS...MEANING STUBBORN INVERSIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ521>524-526>529-533-539-540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-502-504>506-511-512-515>517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-510-513-514.

&&

$$