585
FXUS65 KABQ 272141
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
341 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture is in place over much of New Mexico, and as the
atmosphere continues to destabilize, scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop through the evening. Storms will move
very slowly through the evening and into the overnight, leading to
prolonged heavy downpours and possible flash flooding. Some drier air
will slowly start to work into southeastern New Mexico on Friday and
more-so on Saturday, limiting storm coverage there. Elsewhere an
active weekend with showers and heavy rain-producing thunderstorms is
expected with storms continuing to favor the central and western
high terrain of New Mexico Friday, pushing a bit farther west
through Saturday. Into late Sunday a possible weak cold front will
encroach upon the far northeastern plains, leading to increased
storms there.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A messy forecast is in the works for the next few days. Convection
has lit up with ease across the northern and western mountains today
where the atmosphere first destabilized due to less cloud cover from
overnight activity. Debris clouds have now eroded away along the
central mountain chain and into the east central highlands with
destabilization expected over the next few hours. The western extent
of the upper high has become a bit more dominant, expanding and
drifting into northwest NM with very slow winds aloft giving very
sluggish steering flow. This will keep numerous storms in this
evening`s and tonight`s forecast with the continued potential for
flash flooding. The evolution of storms tonight will set the stage
for how Friday plays out, especially since there could be potential
for clusters of storms over central to west central NM to create a
pronounced mesoscale cold pool and meso surface high with perhaps a
MCV taking shape too.

Depending how tonight`s convection shapes up, there will likely be
copious amounts of debris clouds lingering over central to western NM
into Friday. This may stunt the destabilization, but still a moist
subtropical air mass will be in place, and should again yield a
healthy crop of storms over the central to western high terrain
Friday afternoon into the evening. Some drier mid level air is
forecast to enter into the southeastern zones Friday, limiting
coverage there. As the presence of the upper high becomes more ill-
defined with a light and variable flow aloft, storms will continue to
drift at very slow paces. The development of any MCV would only
muddle the picture and quest to pinpoint any centroids of the upper
high.

Into Saturday, the drier air continues working northward along and
east of the central mountain chain of NM. This will keep storms
primarily concentrated over the western high terrain of NM Saturday
afternoon and evening. Storm motion appears to increase from the
south to the north, and this would hopefully lower the flooding and
heavy rainfall threat.

On Sunday, high pressure remains close to NM with a secondary center
near the Great Basin. The exact placement of the NM center is up for
debate amongst the models, but the best moisture appears to remain
extended from the western tier of the state into the northern one. A
surface boundary is also depicted as sagging through eastern
Colorado and potentially clipping Colfax and Union counties, and
providing a new trigger for storm development there.

The Great Basin high looks to swell and strengthen into next week
with potential for some additional back door fronts to sustain the
moisture for a few more days before the air mass becomes too
subsident and hot.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist and unstable air mass in place as the upper high center is
forecast to be located over New Mexico today through Friday. A
surface boundary over northeast New Mexico early this morning will
sag south and westward during the day today, likely sparking or
enhancing convection along it`s path. During the weekend, 2 distinct
high centers may redevelop, one over the Great Basin and the second
to our east over Texas.

Cell motion today will generally be to the east along and north of
Interstate 40, while to the south, movement will be to the west.
Some erratic movement will also occur, especially later today and
tonight. On Friday, cell motion will be to the northeast across much
of northern New Mexico, while over the south, movement will tend to
be to the northwest. Through Friday, cells won`t move very quickly,
so with the near tropical nature of the air mass and the slow
movement, locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding are likely.

Vent rates today and Friday will feature mostly good rates, with the
exception of areas of fair to poor rates over portions of the north
and west. High temperatures will be mostly below average by a few
degrees.

Some drier air may still seep into eastern and central New Mexico by
Saturday, shifting the focus for convection to the north and west.
Another front/outflow boundary may push into north central and
northeast New Mexico Saturday night/Sunday, igniting more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, especially late Sunday afternoon/night,
and helping to obliterate any drier air that managed to work into
the state earlier in the weekend. Yet another front may impact the
east and central Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge axis may
stretch through the Great Basin into the Big Bend region, but there
may be multiple high centers from day to day. Daily rounds of
showers and storms will continue through the end of next week and
high temperatures will run near to below average.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Four Corners` upper high center currently over NM with a very moist
and unstable airmass underneath. Sct to numerous showers and tstms
will develop once again early this afternoon. Mts occasionally
obscured in brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms,
which will also contain wind gusts to around 35kt. Cell motion to be
generally to the east north of Interstate 40 and to the west over
southern NM. Convection will extend into the overnight hours with sct
showers and thunderstorms most areas until around 28/12Z becoming
isold thereafter.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  86  63  86 /  10  20  50  40
Dulce...........................  59  79  57  81 /  60  70  60  50
Cuba............................  58  78  57  81 /  70  60  60  50
Gallup..........................  60  80  58  81 /  50  50  60  50
El Morro........................  57  77  54  79 /  80  60  70  50
Grants..........................  59  81  56  85 /  70  50  70  40
Quemado.........................  59  77  55  78 /  80  70  60  50
Glenwood........................  64  82  63  86 /  50  50  30  50
Chama...........................  55  74  54  77 /  60  70  70  60
Los Alamos......................  61  77  61  81 /  60  50  50  30
Pecos...........................  58  76  57  81 /  80  70  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  55  75  54  78 /  60  70  70  40
Red River.......................  49  68  48  72 /  70  70  70  50
Angel Fire......................  48  72  47  74 /  60  70  70  40
Taos............................  56  78  54  82 /  50  50  60  40
Mora............................  55  74  54  78 /  70  60  70  30
Espanola........................  62  83  61  89 /  60  40  40  20
Santa Fe........................  60  78  60  82 /  70  60  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  59  82  59  86 /  70  50  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  83  64  87 /  60  50  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  85  66  89 /  60  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  87  62  91 /  60  30  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  86  64  90 /  60  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  65  89  63  93 /  60  30  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  85  65  90 /  60  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  66  88  65  90 /  60  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  81  57  86 /  70  60  30  40
Tijeras.........................  62  82  61  86 /  70  60  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  85  57  89 /  80  40  20  30
Clines Corners..................  58  80  57  85 /  80  40  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  83  60  85 /  60  30  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  62  86  63  87 /  50  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  54  79  57  81 /  50  40  20  30
Capulin.........................  58  79  58  83 /  60  50  50  30
Raton...........................  58  81  57  85 /  50  40  50  30
Springer........................  60  82  59  87 /  60  40  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  78  56  83 /  80  50  40  30
Clayton.........................  63  83  62  88 /  40  30  30  30
Roy.............................  62  82  62  86 /  60  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  68  91  68  94 /  50  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  90  64  93 /  60  20  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  68  94  67  98 /  30  20  10  10
Clovis..........................  67  92  66  93 /  20  10   5   5
Portales........................  69  93  68  93 /  20  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68  92  68  93 /  30  20   5  10
Roswell.........................  70  98  70  98 /  20  10   0   5
Picacho.........................  65  90  64  90 /  30  20   5  20
Elk.............................  61  84  60  85 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ504>509-511>534-537-539.

&&

$$

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