Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271032
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  30  47  32 /  70  80  60  70
DULCE...........................  33  22  38  27 / 100 100  70  80
CUBA............................  33  24  39  30 / 100  90  60  70
GALLUP..........................  44  31  47  32 /  60  40  50  70
EL MORRO........................  40  28  46  33 /  50  40  50  60
GRANTS..........................  38  26  48  31 /  50  40  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  31  49  37 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  37  62  41 /  10  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  29  19  35  26 / 100 100  80  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  28  23  36  34 /  70  80  60  70
PECOS...........................  23  16  36  32 /  70  90  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  18  34  27 /  70 100  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  21  15  30  24 /  70 100  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  15  33  26 /  60  90  60  70
TAOS............................  28  21  36  30 /  60  80  60  70
MORA............................  24  15  36  30 /  70  70  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  33  25  41  32 /  50  60  40  60
SANTA FE........................  27  21  38  34 /  70  70  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  20  40  32 /  60  70  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  26  46  38 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  27  50  36 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  28  51  37 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  27  50  36 /  60  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  28  53  36 /  50  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  36  27  47  35 /  60  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  47  31  58  39 /  50  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  29  21  40  35 /  70  70  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  32  23  45  35 /  60  60  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  17  43  31 /  70  60  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  16  38  31 /  80  60  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  22  45  37 /  60  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  28  53  39 /  30  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  35  25  49  36 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  18  10  30  23 /  50  50  30  30
RATON...........................  20  11  32  23 /  50  60  30  40
SPRINGER........................  22  12  34  24 /  60  60  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  20  13  33  28 /  70  70  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  17  12  31  23 /  60  50  20  20
ROY.............................  18  12  30  25 /  70  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  23  18  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  24  19  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  22  17  39  30 /  80  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  22  17  39  31 /  70  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  23  18  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  25  20  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  30  24  50  34 /  50  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  28  22  49  34 /  50  30  10  10
ELK.............................  30  22  52  37 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$

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