Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300510 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
110 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SHRA STILL ACTIVE IN NW
CORNER...MIDDLE GA EAST OF KCSG AND FAR SE. LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND NONE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LIKELY EARLY SUN MORNING BASED ON HRRR AND
SOME HIRES MODELS. NOT A SLAM DUNK BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY
HIGH FOR THAT TIME OF NIGHT.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA INTO
NORTHWEST GA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL REINFORCE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS BY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL...ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSES LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST GA...BUT DO EXPECT SOME
LULLS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
MAV/MET.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT COMES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SO CHANCE
POPS STILL NEEDED EVERY DAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WIND SHEAR IN THE GULF IS A LITTLE WEAKER...SO SOME REGENERATION OF
ERIKA IS POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR ANY IFR/MVFR CEILINGS...PRECIP
TIMING...AND CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR MOST ELEMENTS AND CONDITIONS WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS ESE 10 KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING...CEILINGS...VSBYS...IMPACTS FROM
ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS.

BDL

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  67  85  69 /  50  20  30  20
ATLANTA         82  69  85  70 /  50  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     76  62  82  63 /  40  20  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    81  66  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        87  69  89  72 /  50  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     78  67  83  69 /  50  20  30  20
MACON           84  69  87  70 /  50  30  30  20
ROME            82  66  87  68 /  40  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  83  68  86  69 /  50  20  20  10
VIDALIA         86  70  85  72 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL


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