Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 260808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Persistent...lingering convection over Central Georgia has finally
diminished. Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm along the old
boundary loitering across the western and southern periphery of the
forecast area this morning...but better chances for more widespread
convection return later in the day. Do not know exactly how much the
easterly flow will stabilize the atmosphere along the eastern
reaches of the forecast area but POP field will gradually increase
through the day...peaking late in the afternoon/early in the evening
with a distinct gradient from good chance to slight chance going
from west to east. Region remains under the slowly weakening upper
ridge...however easterly flow and some increase in cloud cover
should help to take the edge off of the extreme high temperatures we
have seen the past couple of days. Still looking to be at or a bit
above normal most areas...but heat index numbers are expected to
remain below advisory levels today. Monday will see the upper ridge
weaken further and afternoon convection/cloud cover will take even a
little bit more off of the afternoon heat. Will see a general
decrease in thunderstorm coverage through the evening and overnight
once again tonight with scattered re-development Monday.
Although overall dynamic influences do not point to any widespread
severe thunderstorm potential...ample moisture and good daytime
heating will produce at least a small risk for isolated strong to
severe storms today and again Monday...especially in the western and
southern portions of the forecast area where CAPE values have the
potential to reach into the 2000-3000j/kg range during the peak of
the afternoon each day.
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The long term begins with the upper ridge dominating the
southeast...but gradually being pushed to the south and west as a
broad trough deepens into the OH Valley. This should push a
surface front into central GA through the middle of the week.
Looks like best pops should be in the vicinity of the front
Tuesday and have included likely for a portion of central GA
during the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show some drying into north
GA Wednesday through Thursday...so have removed pops for a portion
of the northwest for that time. Moisture should increase back
across the forecast area through the weekend as the surface front
becomes more diffuse...so chance or slight chance looks reasonable
for the Friday and Saturday.
Isolated convection weakening across southern portions of the
forecast area at this time...and this trend is expected to continue
with little or no activity expected between 08Z and 16Z. Isolated to
scattered convection will re-develop after 16Z with best coverage
between 18Z and 00Z. Also expect better coverage across southern and
western portions of the area. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
over eastern portions of the area by 08-10Z and quickly spread east
with all TAF sites except KCSG likely to see at least a period of
MVFR ceilings between 10z and 16Z. winds will be northeast to east
at 3-8KT through 10z...becoming east to southeast 6-12KT through the
afternoon before diminishing to 6KT or less after 00Z.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on exact timing and extent of MVFR ceilings.
High all other elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 92 73 91 72 / 30 20 40 40
Atlanta 90 74 89 73 / 30 30 40 30
Blairsville 89 69 85 67 / 40 30 50 50
Cartersville 93 72 90 71 / 40 30 50 50
Columbus 94 75 93 74 / 50 40 40 20
Gainesville 89 73 88 72 / 30 30 50 40
Macon 94 73 93 73 / 30 30 30 20
Rome 93 72 90 72 / 40 30 50 50
Peachtree City 92 72 90 71 / 40 40 40 30
Vidalia 95 74 92 73 / 20 20 30 10