Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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591
FXUS62 KFFC 201448
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS/DEWPTS LARGELY ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR
TERM TRENDS MADE. OTHERWISE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A LINGERING
BOUNDARY BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE AND PROGGED UPPER SHORTWAVE
INDICATING BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OOZING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SETTLING SOUTH OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR BACK OVER CENTRAL TN.
THIS DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN GA LATER
TODAY.

POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. AS WITH THE LAST FEW
DAYS...A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. ANY STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PROGGING A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXTRA BUOYANCY
PROVIDED BY THE COLD POOL ALOFT COULD HELP SPARK SOME ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 BEFORE 4AM. HOWEVER...WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

THE OLD BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OR VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWFA ON THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA...WHERE THE OLD FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD A BIT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE
WAVE.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID WESTERN STATES BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA SO WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS IN THE FORECAST DAYS 3-5.
BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO
MORE OF A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT INSTABILITIES INCREASING A BIT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH PWS SO WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS
DAYS 6 AND 7.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL GA...SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA AND REMAIN
SCT/ISOLD IN NATURE. CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z
WED. THIS FEATURE COULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES AFTER
03Z...BUT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKENING THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES
EAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  67  86  59 /  10  20  20  10
ATLANTA         86  69  82  60 /  10  20  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     82  61  76  50 /  20  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  80  54 /  10  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        90  70  87  63 /  20  10  30   5
GAINESVILLE     86  67  81  58 /  10  20  20  10
MACON           90  67  90  61 /  20  10  30  10
ROME            87  66  79  54 /  20  30  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  88  66  83  57 /  20  20  20   5
VIDALIA         91  70  91  67 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA/BAKER
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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