Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 271153
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
No major adjustments made at this update. Some stratus noted
across the metro Atlanta and points south and west. Feel this will
mix out over the next couple of hours with increased BL mixing.
Have tweaked hourly T/Td to reflect current obs and forecast trends.
Otherwise forecast looks on track.
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday/...
Continued high pressure across the southeast states will keep
conditions hot across much of Georgia through the period. With
ridging in place and no mid-level impulses to generate organized
convection, feel the precipitation coverage will be limited again
today. Perhaps the high terrain will act as a catalysis for some
initiation, with highest pops noted across the northern tier.
Also, with a sfc low across AR ushering in some moisture, may see
some development across the southwest tier. Otherwise anticipate
the typical summer time CU field development by mid-morning. Any
activity that does occur will likely stay sub-severe given warm
air in the mid-levels and weak shear. In terms of temperatures,
model guidance has been several degrees too cool over the past
couple days. Th, based on persistence and a blend of the ECS,
feel temperatures will top into the mid/upper 90s with some
locations to the east reaching the century mark. Mid/upper 80s
across the higher terrain. Southwest winds continue.
Clear and mainly calm overnight with the high still anchored to
our east. This will create sufficient subsidence across the
region. The stacked SW flow around the high will be draped across
the northern tier, which will be the axis for which any
precipitation may occur. Therefore highest pops Thursday will be
across this area, although coverage again seems minimal. Per any
development, expect it to be sub-severe with weak instability in
place. Will be another hot day in store with temperatures in the
mid/upper 90s, apart from the higher terrain.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the long term. A weak short
wave will stall over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and weaken. This
will pull Gulf moisture over the CWA increasing the chances of
showers and tstorms. By late Sunday the wave will have flattened out
with the ridge building back over the CWA. Plenty of moisture will
be left over from the aforementioned short wave. This will keep the
chances of showers and tstorms over the CWA into early next
week...mainly during the afternoon hours. Temps will be somewhat
cooler across the northwest half of the CWA due to clouds and better
chances of precip while the southeast half will continue with max
temps in the mid and upper 90s.
IFR/LIFR cigs moving into the metro TAF sites and just north of
the CSG TAF site this morning. This will continue for the next
couple of hours, but should erode by around 13Z with BL
mixing/heating. Southwest winds will increase through the morning
hours and top out around 7-10kt during the afternoon. Sct CU field
development around 6Kft. Removed PROB30 for TSRA from all metro
TAF sites given the persistent thermodynamic environment with
little convective formation over the last several days. CU field
will erode by evening giving way to clear conditions overnight.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence on all elements, except for moderate to high
confidence on extent of IFR/LIFR cigs this AM.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 100 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 10
Atlanta 95 75 93 72 / 20 10 20 20
Blairsville 91 70 87 69 / 30 30 30 30
Cartersville 95 74 92 72 / 20 20 30 30
Columbus 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 10 10
Gainesville 93 74 92 72 / 20 20 20 20
Macon 98 75 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
Rome 96 73 92 72 / 30 20 30 30
Peachtree City 95 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 20
Vidalia 98 76 100 74 / 10 10 10 10