Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291736 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
136 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING TO UPDATE TRENDS IN THE
GRIDS. INCREASED HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR WHERE RAIN IS FALLING
AND EXPANDED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDER CHANCES...GIVEN THE CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MCN AND CSG. SBCAPES ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH THE CLEARING THIS
MORNING...IN SOME AREAS SBCAPE VALUES ARE CREEPING UPWARDS OF 1000
J/KG. STILL NOT REALLY ANY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OBSERVED YET.
THE FRONT IS STILL BACK IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND TEMPERATURES ARE
BEING HELD DOWN A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
OVERALL...JUST TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH NEAR-TERM TRENDS FOR THE
MORNING UPDATE. PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SHORT TERM RAIN TIMING REMAINS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED...THOUGH ONSET IN NW GEORGIA THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN SLOWER THAN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
BEING THE FIRST THE STATE HAS SEEN IN MORE THAN A WEEK. OVERALL
TREND IS THAT THE OCCLUDING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS FORM AS
IT MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA...AND AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW...THOUGH NON-ZERO. HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING
INTO THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ONLY GOOD CHANCE POPS. GIVEN THE
DELAY IN ONSET...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GRID TIMING MAY BE AN HOUR OR
TWO TOO SLOW...BUT CURRENT THINKING STILL MATCHES THE OVERALL SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ATL METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD...ANY
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SEE
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THUNDERSTORM THREAT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THOUGHTS ARE THAT STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED AND WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS
TIME. AS A RESULT...HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED THE POPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH GEORGIA...AND TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE KEPT A DRY TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A
DRASTIC CHANCE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE LAST WEEK. CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED UPPER 30S IN THE NE GA MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THE AREA WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MID
60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LONG TERM STARTING OUT COOLER AND DRIER WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY PUTTING THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO FORECAST
AREA. MODELS SEEM STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN EXPECTED. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER BY LATE
TUESDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO METRO TAFS...VFR
ELSEWHERE WITH -SHRA DIMINISHING FOR TAF SITES. SKIES SHOULD
SCATTER AND LIFT BEGINNING AROUND 21Z OR SO FOR THE METRO TAFS.
WINDS REMAIN NW TO NNW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW-END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY
BETWEEN 5-10KT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH SKC. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT CLIMATOLOGICAL LOCATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON CIGS.
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS AFTER 00Z.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  47  69  45 /  30  20   0   0
ATLANTA         70  48  68  49 /  80  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     63  38  63  39 / 100   5   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    66  41  66  43 / 100   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        78  50  72  49 /  50  20   0   0
GAINESVILLE     68  46  66  46 /  80  10   0   0
MACON           80  48  72  44 /  40  30   0   0
ROME            66  41  67  43 / 100   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  73  43  69  42 /  50  20   0   0
VIDALIA         83  58  74  49 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TDP





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