Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 131858
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

STILL ANALYZING LATEST FORECAST MODELS FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION
THREAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST RUNS APPEAR TO FAVOR THE RECENT
RUNS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE AND LESS OF A WINTER
THREAT. WILL MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE INITIALLY QUIET FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE STRONG SFC RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH IS GOING TO SET THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY
FCST JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. THIS POTENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE
SLIDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AT NEAR 1034-1036MB AND RESULT
IN PUSHING A CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE INTO THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO TRAP SOME
ABNORMALLY COOL AIR NEAR THE SFC AND...FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PROVIDE THE DIABATIC HEADACHE FOR P-TYPE AND WETBULB TEMP
QUESTIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND STARTS TO TRANSLATE AN
OVERRUNNING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE
UPGLIDE AHEAD. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
IN THE FAR NORTH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON A BIT SOONER THAN GUIDANCE
SINCE ISENTROPIC FORCING TENDS TO START SOONER. SEE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP CONCERNS THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS IS PROVIDING SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AND THE TEENS FOR THE FAR NE /A GOOD OVERALL 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORM/.

BAKER

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
MODELS STILL TRENDING TOWARD THE WARM SIDE MAINLY FOR MONDAY. HAVE
COMPROMISED AGAIN IN FAVOR OF THE EASTERLY FLOW AND LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES NORTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD STILL GIVE
A MIX OF PRECIP FOR NORTH GA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRECIP TYPE
FAVORING MOSTLY RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...BUT TRENDING IT FARTHER NORTH THIS RUN. THIS
WOULD ALSO AFFECT THE THICKNESS PROFILE AND HOW FAST THE WEDGE
ERODES. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT COULD GIVE NORTH GA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROZEN
PRECIP BUT MAINLY NORTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST.

41

FIRE WEATHER...

ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE FOR NEAR 4 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH FUELS
CLOSE TO 8 PERCENT ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...THE CURRENT FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. IF FUELS LOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND WINDS BECOME
MORE ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA COULD
BE MET SO WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITOR OF TRENDS. FOR SUNDAY...RH
VALUES AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH 7KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE NNW TO THE NE AROUND 06Z...THEN CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SE BY 18-21Z. CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH BKN-OVC VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  23  42  31 /   0   0   5  30
ATLANTA         40  24  43  35 /   0   0   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     32  19  35  27 /   0   0  20  70
CARTERSVILLE    39  21  43  34 /   0   0  10  50
COLUMBUS        49  27  52  39 /   0   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     39  22  38  30 /   0   0   5  40
MACON           48  23  49  36 /   0   0   5  10
ROME            39  20  44  35 /   0   0  20  60
PEACHTREE CITY  42  22  46  34 /   0   0   5  20
VIDALIA         52  28  49  38 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31


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