Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 252336 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
An upper low and surface low continue across the Florida panhandle
this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have
developed across the SW CWFA this afternoon...and isolated activity
is beginning to form across the higher terrain of NE Georgia. The
activity down south is nearest to the lift/energy of the upper low.
This afternoon/evenings convection should diminish shortly after
sunset with the loss of heating.
A cold front will begin to approach the NW CWFA tomorrow morning and
then begin to slowly move southward across central portions of the
state tomorrow afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated, but the
front should have enough convergence to produce at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms...mainly in the afternoon.
Temperatures are still expected above normal, but with the increased
cloud cover and chances for precip, values should remain capped in
the 80s for much of north GA. Lower 90s are possible in areas that
remain south of the front.
.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
Am Not favoring in any way the wetter solution of the European
model for N GA at mid-late week at this time. We will just watch
and see for now.
The long term period begins with a developing full latitude
eastern half of the US trough developing and good agreement among
the extended guidance. The front by Wed morning looks to be
pushing out of the local forecast area but majority of the cool
air remains over the Great Lakes states initially. Still
though...enough of a cool air advective pattern emerges to
allow for temps to plummet to the lower 50s over a large portion
of central GA. Of course all this will depend on the timing of the
front and if it should slow its progression these mins would be
quite a bit warmer.
And so fall begins over the area Wed and continues through the
remainder of the long term period. Guidance in very good agreement
in showing highs at or just above climo but lows some 3 to 5
degrees below with some mid 40s in the offing for far North
Will need to keep an eye on the tropics next weekend into the
following work week as models show a system moving from the
Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF now much slower with
this system still north of the Dominican by 240 hrs while the GFS
already has it over western Cuba. Plenty of time to monitor this
system which has yet to develop.
VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through the majority of this forecast period. Isolated to scattered
areas of MVFR or lower visibilities will develop between 03Z and
14Z. Will also see MVFR or lower ceilings developing across
southeast Georgia between 03Z and 06Z...spreading into southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area between 08Z and 10Z. At least
intermittent MVFR ceilings are likely at KMCN between 10Z and 14Z. I
do not expect any impacts at the other TAF sites. East to southeast
winds 4kt or less through 14Z...then southeast to south 4-10kt
after. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
after 16Z...becoming more widespread after 20Z.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on cigs overnight. High confidence remaining
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 67 87 67 85 / 20 40 40 30
Atlanta 70 87 68 83 / 10 40 40 30
Blairsville 64 81 60 79 / 20 60 50 20
Cartersville 68 88 63 82 / 20 40 40 10
Columbus 71 91 69 89 / 20 30 30 30
Gainesville 68 85 66 82 / 20 60 40 30
Macon 68 89 67 88 / 10 30 30 40
Rome 67 89 62 82 / 20 40 40 10
Peachtree City 67 88 65 84 / 10 40 40 30
Vidalia 72 87 69 88 / 20 40 30 40