Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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589
FXUS62 KFFC 271931
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
High pressure anchored over Quebec will shift east through the
period.  Meanwhile, ridging across the east coast will continue to
build. Although a tropical wave, once Fiona, will undercut the mid
level ridge providing moisture flux to portions of the southeast by
Sunday afternoon.

Through tonight: Isolated showers may develop through the afternoon,
mainly being confined across the northern elevations. Have noted
precipitation across southern GA which should stay suppressed to the
south. Any precip activity should diminish after sunset with loss of
heating. Conditions will be fairly quiet overnight with light east
winds. May have pockets of low stratus and fog based on sufficient
cond press def and moisture trapped in the lowest levels, but not
expecting anything widespread. Lows in the low 70s, apart from upper
60s across the far northeastern terrain.

Sunday: Similar conditions expected tomorrow as compared to today
with high pressure still in control. However, moisture and mid-level
impulses from the tropical wave approaching the SC coast will help
to give a bit more coverage of showers/thunderstorms, especially
across the northern tier. PW/RH values will slowly increase through
the afternoon with better convergence expected across the higher
terrain. So anticipate diurnal convection in the afternoon, with
marginal instability expected. Based on partial thickness values, a
bit more cloud coverage and precipitation coverage, anticipate
temperatures will be a degree or two lower than persistence...upper
80s/low 90s across the northern tier and low/mid 90s across central
GA.High pressure anchored over Quebec will shift east through the
period.  Meanwhile, ridging across the east coast will continue to
build. Although a tropical wave, once Fiona, will undercut the mid
level ridge providing moisture flux to portions of the southeast by
Sunday afternoon.



26


.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
No significant changes to the long term portion of the forecast.

There are three distinct tropical lows of interest around the CWFA.
The first tropical low across the western Gulf of Mexico shouldn`t
significantly impact the weather across the CWFA. The second
tropical low off the coast of the Carolina`s also shouln`t impact
our weather. The third tropical low...known as 99L...is expected to
meander across the NE Gulf of Mexico during the early part of next
week.

There is still some distinct differences between the models on the
overall solution for mid to late next week, especially pertaining to
99L. So, have opted to go with persistence and not change the pops
very much. For now, the heaviest rainfall axis remains across FL,
but if the system begins to interact with a stalled frontal boundary
across central GA by the end of next week...the rainfall estimates
may need to be increased.

NListemaa


&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions through the TAF
period. East winds through the rest of the day, at times gusting
to around 15kts. Increasing CU field through the afternoon with
precipitation activity staying generally north of the metro TAF
sites. Winds will reduce overnight with clearing skies. Although
some indications illustrate low level moisture and lower
condensation pressure def, feel stratus should not be an issue
with mixing and sufficient dew point depressions. KAVN has a
higher chance seeing reduced vsbys/cigs in the early morning
hours. Convection may be a bit more widespread Sunday as easterly
winds continue.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
Atlanta         74  90  73  90 /   5  20  20  20
Blairsville     68  85  65  86 /  10  30  20  30
Cartersville    72  90  71  91 /  10  30  20  20
Columbus        73  93  74  92 /   0  20  20  20
Gainesville     73  88  71  88 /  10  20  20  30
Macon           72  93  72  92 /   0  20  20  30
Rome            72  91  71  92 /  10  30  20  20
Peachtree City  71  90  71  90 /   5  20  20  20
Vidalia         73  94  73  92 /   5  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...26



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