Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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815
FXUS62 KFFC 170254
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
954 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017


.UPDATE...
Made minor updates to overnight temperatures given current trends.
In addition, low cloud development is noted in parts of northeast
and east Georgia in association with weak surface wedging. Expect
most of the low cloud and fog development overnight to be in this
general area.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 659 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Transition to southwesterly upper flow is in full-swing as the upper
ridge axis shifts to the east coast. Main short wave over the
southern and central plains lifts well north of the region but
medium range models show a series of weaker "ripples" sweeping
through the region over the next 36 hours in this southwest upper
flow. As the main short wave and associated surface low lift into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes they do drag a weak cold front into
the far north which should help to increase rain chances across
north Georgia Tuesday and Tuesday night. Dynamics, instability and
shear remain marginal at best, but are not completely lacking with
this setup so at least a slight chance of thunder is merited Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain well above seasonal
normals through the short-term forecast period.

20

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Minor adjustments made to period with latest refresh of guidance
blend. Main changes were to slightly increase pops and thunder
potential with the Saturday/Sunday system as models were in good
consensus with strength and timing. Will need to continue to watch
for strong/severe convective potential as the shear profiles look
impressive and will largely be determined by how unstable the
airmass can get. Still far out so have plenty of time to monitor
trends. Also went a bit cooler behind this system due to how deep
the closed mid/upper low gets and advects actual near normal temps
in behind. Nothing sub-freezing though at the moment for early
next week. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Models are coming into a little better agreement for the long term
portion of the forecast. Frontal boundary will begin to impact
northern portions of the CWFA Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
The main forcing with this system goes well to the north, but
there should be some small chances of thunder right along the
boundary early mainly Tuesday night. This front will stall across
portions of central GA Wednesday into late Thursday. Not much
forcing aloft to interact with this boundary, so pops will remain
on the low side. However, if any perturbations in the zonal flow
come across - pops could be locally higher near the boundary.

The old front should begin to push northward as a warm front early
Friday as the next system move out of the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. The surface low pressure system will move well to the north,
with a trailing front Thursday night into Friday. In the mid levels,
the main forcing also shunts a bit to the north, but still some
decent energy this far south. The longwave through actually comes
through negatively tilted. there should be enough instability
around for thunder...and a few of the storms could become strong.
Will have to watch for the potential for severe. This front looks
to make it to near the Florida panhandle by early Saturday.

The next low pressure system/front looks to impact the area late
Sunday into Monday.

NListemaa

CLIMATE...

Records for 01-16

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1952     30 1994     56 1974      9 1927
                1928        1972        1952        1912
   KATL      73 1882     28 1972     64 1882      5 1972
                            1912
                            1893
   KCSG      79 1950     35 1972     64 1947     14 1972
                            1912
   KMCN      81 1952     35 1994     64 2013     12 1927
                1950

20

AVIATION...
00Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected across most of the area overnight,
though some areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings will be possible in the
northeastern periphery. MVFR conditions are included for the KAHN
TAF site during the overnight into early Tuesday morning period.
While some other localized reduced visibilities will likely
occur, the other TAF sites should not be significantly impacted.
Winds from the east to southeast this evening will gradually
shift to the southwest by Tuesday morning and remain in the 3-7
knot range.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on extent of MVFR/IFR ceilings.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  71  57  70 /  10  20  30  30
Atlanta         55  71  57  67 /  10  20  30  30
Blairsville     50  65  53  61 /  20  50  60  40
Cartersville    52  70  57  64 /  10  40  50  30
Columbus        55  74  59  72 /  10  20  30  30
Gainesville     51  68  56  66 /  10  30  50  30
Macon           54  74  56  73 /  10  10  30  30
Rome            51  70  56  64 /  10  50  60  30
Peachtree City  50  71  56  69 /  10  20  30  30
Vidalia         54  76  58  75 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...RW



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