Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 170833
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NEARLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
FAR NORTH GEORGIA COUNTIES. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN...BUT INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING IN THAT AREA ARE ABOVE FREEZING...AND
A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT
WITH DRY DEW POINTS EXPECT ANY WINTRY PRECIP TO SUBLIMATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. LITTLE TO KNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

31


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ON THE CHRISTMAS WEEK
SYSTEM...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WET TRAVEL CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE CWFA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODELS TYPICALLY TOO SLOW
TO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC PRECIP...SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL...ALBEIT VERY
SMALL...OF SOME RASN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GA MTNS BEFORE THE
PRECIP CUTS OFF.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND BEGIN PUSHING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE BRINGING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
500MB TROUGH THROUGH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR...THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADDED TO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS LATELY
HAVE THE SYSTEMS STARTING OUT STRONG...THEN DAMPENING OUT THE
FEATURES BY 3-4 DAY TIMEFRAME...SO A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST SEEMS
PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.  THE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON QPF...WITH
THE GFS BEING DRIER. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO POPS. LAST NIGHTS RUNS HAD COOLER TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS.


NLISTEMAA


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS
FAR NORTH GEORGIA WERE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVED INTO THE METRO
ATL AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT MVFR FOR 09-14Z AS
A RESULT. EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 8-11KT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 7KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  35  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         53  37  56  40 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     52  31  53  31 /   0  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  32  52  34 /   0  10  20   5
COLUMBUS        58  38  62  43 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     54  36  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           60  35  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            52  32  52  34 /   0  20  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  55  32  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         62  39  62  42 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31


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