Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 160839
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

Quiet weather day in store today as dry surface high pressure
moves across the area.

The next system for Sunday will be a weakening short wave that
is forecast to have deep moisture associated and no instability.
It will affect n GA the most with light rain chances starting
close to mid morning for the far NW then the rest of n GA through
the afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures are running near to slightly below
normal today and 3-5 degrees above normal for Sunday.
Forecast low temperatures are running close to normal tonight.

Overall confidence is high.

BDL


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Still looking for a cutoff low to develop over the 4 corners
region as the long term period begins providing a pattern for most
of the period that resembles anything but La Nina. Upper level jet
will be a mainstay over the Tennessee Valley and providing energy
to the local area until actual upper low eventually kicks out and
provides its own dynamics.

At the same time, surface high will remain largely offshore
allowing for ample low level moisture to interact with these upper
level features. This all begins Sunday night into Monday when
precipitable water climbs to 1.75 inches over central GA and jet
impulses along with isentropic influences lead to the development
of likely pops. Could be that these need to be upped to
categorical with time but ECMWF not quite as aggressive initially
as GFS so will hold off.

Area will be in and out of likely rain chances but mostly in until
shortwave ejects out of the plains and pushes through late
Wednesday. Models showing as high as 5 inches through the entire
period but QPF should be spread out enough to preclude any
significant flood concerns. Otherwise, will continue to indicate
periods of thunder in the grids as well trying to match up with
individual impulses to move through.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions will continue through
the period with just varying high clouds. Surface winds light W-N
becoming WSW or light and variable during the day Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence for wind direction after 00z.
High confidence for all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  34  58  46 /   0   0  30  40
Atlanta         54  37  57  50 /   0   0  40  60
Blairsville     53  29  51  41 /   0   0  50  30
Cartersville    52  33  53  47 /   0   0  50  40
Columbus        57  39  64  56 /   0   0  30  70
Gainesville     52  36  54  46 /   0   0  40  40
Macon           56  35  63  53 /   0   0  10  60
Rome            53  32  51  45 /   0   0  60  40
Peachtree City  55  34  59  50 /   0   0  30  60
Vidalia         57  39  67  54 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...BDL



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