Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240603
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA WITH
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AL AND FEWER
INTO CENTRAL GA. ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. PLAN TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OVERALL... PROJECTED
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
NUMBERS WARRANTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. /39

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
AREA OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AL MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST BUT
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS AGREE WITH
BRINGING IN LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR
CENTRAL GA...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO AREAS. THE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SPREADING
RAIN/STORMS INTO THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER WESTERN GA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED.

17

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WET PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START MOVING IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM TO THE WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS COMBINED
WITH MODERATELY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...
STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SET UP OVER THE REGION.
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
THEY RESOLVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK AT LEAST A
LITTLE OVER-BLOWN FOR THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING SEASON. I HAVE
CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
SOMEWHAT GENERIC WITH CHANCE POPS AT BEST AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES UNTIL CONFIDENCE GROWS IN JUST HOW THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST SIDE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z THIS
MORNING AND TO THE SE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO BE ADDED TO THE LATER TAF PERIODS FOR THE 12 ISSUANCE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  53  71  63 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         74  60  75  66 /   5  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     69  52  69  58 /   0  60 100  60
CARTERSVILLE    74  57  76  64 /   0  60 100  40
COLUMBUS        77  61  79  65 /   0  20 100  20
GAINESVILLE     70  55  69  63 /   0  60 100  60
MACON           75  57  80  65 /   0  20 100  30
ROME            73  56  76  63 /   0  70 100  40
PEACHTREE CITY  74  58  77  64 /   0  30 100  30
VIDALIA         76  59  80  68 /   0  10 100  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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