Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KFFC 191758
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
158 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET SHORT TERM ON TAP WITH SFC HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT WINDS LOOK TO DO ALMOST A 360 FROM NW THIS
MORNING AROUND TO WEAK EAST OR CALM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SW
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE JUST
HAVE SOME LINGERING CIRRUS WITH VERY DRY PROFILES BELOW...THEN
EVENTUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT DRY FROPA.

FOR TEMPS...ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS FOR HIGHS TODAY.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE EVEN SEEMED A
BIT TOO COOL SO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED
CIRRUS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COMPONENT. OVERALL STILL TOO
HIGH OF VALUES FOR FROST MENTION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS GOT SOME PATCHY FROST IN NORTH GEORGIA. MONDAY SHOULD
WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO.

BAKER

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A NE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A
DRY AND FAIR WX PATTERN. THE FIRST IN THIS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH NEARLY CLOSED
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS INCREASE...PWATS ON THE MODELS ARE ONLY ABLE
TO CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AT BEST AND GIVEN LACK OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...PREFER TO KEEP FORECAST A DRY ONE AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT UPPER FLOW IS NEVER CONDUCIVE TO BRING THE HIGH OR
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. INSTEAD...SEE LOCAL RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN BY THU AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONGER
SOUTHERN TRACK SHORTWAVE. LOOKS ONCE AGAIN AS DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED POP FREE FORECAST.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL
BECOME NW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CALM OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 2-4KT AFTER 16Z MONDAY. SOME FEW CU
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 4 KFT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  44  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         68  50  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  41  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        72  48  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  47  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           73  42  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            68  41  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  70  41  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  51  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...31





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.