034
FXUS62 KFFC 100549
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A very active today across the area with a the overnight MCS
followed by another MCS that dove SE across AL this morning.
Shower and tstm activity continues across the S half of the County
Warning Area (CWA), with the strongest storms (some severe) across
the extreme S. Tornado Watch number 216 was extended across the S
until 3 PM. Tornado Watch number 217 continues S of that area
until 5 PM. Activity is expected to gradually sag farther S
through the remainder of the afternoon and eventually weaken S of
the CWA.

The respite in weather will be short-lived, as a quick-moving MCS
is forecast to sweep across the S portion of the area late tonight
and Fri morning. High resolution models have been very consistent
regarding strength and timing of this feature. However, the fly in
the ointment is the lingering cool pool N of today`s line of
convection. There will likely be some recovery in instability
across the area (particularly where storms ended the earliest).
However, this feature will be moving across late at night and
early in the morning. The strongest thunderstorms are expected to
be farther to the S, with severe storms possible (mainly S of
Macon). The greatest threat will be damaging winds with this
system, but there will be a lesser threat of hail and isolated
tornadoes. The forecast will likely be further honed later this
evening as the impact of earlier convection becomes more clear.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected
this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances
look to return to the region next week as another low pressure
system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward. QPF
values have been adjust slightly based on the latest guidance.
Otherwise, little change was made to the existing packages.

07/SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A mix of IFR, MVFR and VFR conditions will linger over the region
through 18Z Friday. These conditions will primarily be driven by
low ceilings, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will
produce reduced visibilities at times. Storms may produce strong
wind gusts or small hail across central Georgia. Storms are most
likely at the TAF sites between 09Z and 13Z Friday. Winds will be
variable at 3 to 8 kt through 15Z Friday, then west to northwest
winds (10 to 20 kt with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range) will occur
between 16Z Friday and 02Z Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
Moderate confidence in the visibility, precipitation and wind
forecasts.
Low confidence in the potential for thunderstorms between 10Z and
13Z Friday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         54  76  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  69  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    49  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        57  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  75  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           56  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            51  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  78  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         59  80  58  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Albright