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000
FXUS62 KFFC 131825 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013/
WILL HAVE A QUIET START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WEATHER WISE AND
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO HEAT UP BEFORE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OF EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL
PUSH INTO GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY LOW IN TERMS OF POPS...ESPECIALLY THE MAV...BUT
THE NAM...SREF...ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWING DECENT 6-HR ACCUMULATED PRECIP. FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE
MAV/MET MOS AND CALLS FOR LIKELY POPS TRANSLATING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY HI RES MODELS WHICH ARE
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS.

WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE MOST PART CLIMBING INTO THE
90S...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BY THE AFTERNOON. GFS IS SHOWING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 30KTS AND LL SHEAR OF 25KTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE
THE AREA IN A HIGH END SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND WITH THE LINE OF STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO WIND DAMAGE. IN REGARDS
TO TIMING...IT APPEARS TO BE AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT FOR
NORTH GEORGIA AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL GEORGIA.

FOR FRIDAY...FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL STILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BUT APPEAR TO BE IN A BREAK FROM A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. ALL
THIS SAID...SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REACH THE LOW
90S.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 426 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013/
MAINLY QUITE DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS SUNDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO N GA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN MONDAY...MOST SO FOR N GA...GIVING POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE IN THE CARDS ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVES TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES N GA. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
CONTINUING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS
OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...HOWEVER I DO
NOT HAVE ANY MVFR PERIODS AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY BETWEEN 08-14KT WITH GUSTS 18-24KT THROUGH 00Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 4-8KT AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY 06Z. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z...IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND KAHN TAF
SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z AND THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES BETWEEN
23Z AND 03Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM FOR COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  68  87  63 /  70  50   5   0
ATLANTA         91  69  85  67 /  70  60   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     86  61  81  58 /  70  10   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    91  66  85  60 /  70  20   5   0
COLUMBUS        96  73  90  69 /  30  60   5   0
GAINESVILLE     90  66  84  64 /  70  20   5   0
MACON           96  71  89  65 /  30  60   5   0
ROME            93  66  86  60 /  70  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  93  67  86  62 /  70  70   5   0
VIDALIA         96  74  90  68 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...11