Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 302006
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
406 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA BY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES GENERALLY
BEFORE 18Z. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AROUND 15Z AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE WEAKENS AND SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. SOME LOW CAPE FORECAST WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SYSTEM SO HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. LOOKING AT WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

41

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM NW FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL THRU THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...IMPLYING MILD TO WARM DAYS AND VERY WARM NIGHTS WITH
MORE CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO MORE FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN
WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CANT RULE OUT SVR STORMS ON ANY DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. ALWAYS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SVR
CONVECTION ONLY REQUIRES INGREDIENTS BE IN PLACE. STRONG/DEEP
UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS *NOT*
A NECESSARY CONDITION FOR SVR STORMS! THAT SAID...MOST LIKELY CHC
FOR SVR STORMS BASED ON 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS WEEK ARE TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. BY FRI/SAT...EVEN AS MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...MODELS INDICATING LESS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE OVER GA. BETTER INGREDIENTS ON FRI REMAIN TO
OUR WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
NOT EXPECTED WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THIS WEEK 1 INCH OR LESS. GUIDANCE
BLEND REMAINS GOOD CHOICE FOR TEMPS BEST ON RECENT VERIFICATION.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF IFR LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME MVFR MAY
PERSIST OVER CSG AND MCN INTO THE EVENING. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY
MAINLY CSG AND MCN TOWARD MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
AFTER 00Z.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          40  74  51  77 /   0  30  20  10
ATLANTA         47  72  53  76 /   0  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     37  67  46  72 /   0  30  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    40  71  49  75 /   0  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        50  76  56  79 /   5  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     44  70  51  75 /   0  30  20  10
MACON           44  75  54  78 /   5  40  50  20
ROME            40  71  49  76 /   0  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  42  73  50  77 /   0  40  40  20
VIDALIA         51  77  60  78 /   5  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41



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