Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 271115 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...
NOW OVER THE MID U.S. ...INTO N GA LATE SUNDAY. INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS WELL. HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER N GA WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

NO INSTABILITY WHATSOEVER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES 100 OR LESS ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
THE EUROPEAN. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER.

HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER N GA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR
A FLOOD WATCH IF AMOUNTS INCREASE ANY.

WITH A WARMING AIRMASS...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 7-11
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND 9-14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...USING A MODEL BLEND. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING 14-
17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM. AS THE NEXT LOW DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN THE MODELS
WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT ALSO HAS A
DEEPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS IN AMPLE MOISTURE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND A LITTLE COOLER AS IT HOLDS ON TO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CWA.
WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE ON TIMING OF POPS BUT AT LEAST BOTH
INDICATE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE CWA SO WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY. THERE
STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH
MODELS PUSH THE 0C 850 TEMP NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING
THE 0C LINE THE FURTHEST NORTH...INTO KY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATE ALL LIQUID PRECIP. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF
R-/ZR- IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
HAPPENING IS LOW.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CEILINGS
TODAY AND INCREASING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH
MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 5 KTS OR
LESS...FAVORING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS TODAY.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF LOWEST CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  47  63  51 /  20  80  80  80
ATLANTA         63  51  64  51 /  40 100  80  80
BLAIRSVILLE     61  45  56  47 /  20 100 100  80
CARTERSVILLE    59  48  60  48 /  40 100  90  80
COLUMBUS        64  54  70  54 /  30  60  40  70
GAINESVILLE     59  49  59  48 /  30 100 100  80
MACON           65  51  71  56 /  20  40  20  60
ROME            58  48  60  48 /  50 100 100  80
PEACHTREE CITY  64  51  66  51 /  40  90  70  80
VIDALIA         68  53  73  59 /   5  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...BDL


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