Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016

...Fall has finally arrived in north and central Georgia...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Cold front - or leading edge of drier air - currently extends from
around Athens GA (AHN) to Macon (MCN) to Eufala AL (EUF). To the
west and north of this line, much drier air has filtered across the
area with dewpoints have fallen into the 40s and 50s - some 10 to as
much as 25F degrees lower than this time yesterday. Ahead of the
front, pronounced CU field exists with scattered showers in an area
from Albany to Swainsboro GA.

The front will continue to slide south and east tonight allowing the
drier/cooler air to spread across the remainder of the forecast
area. May see a few showers linger along the front into this evening
but expect much of the activity to diminish shortly after sunset
with loss of daytime heating.

Thursday, a large upper level low currently just south of the
central Great Lakes is expected to move nearly due south over the
next 24-36 hours, centering itself somewhere over Kentucky. Low
level moisture and steep lapse rates along the GA/TN state line
should generate some sct-bkn cumulus and perhaps a rogue shower
during afternoon peak heating. Otherwise, much of the area will
experience dry/stable conditions resulting in abundant sunshine. It
will feel much cooler with high temps in the 70s for a good portion
of north/central GA - north of a La Grange to Covington to Athens
line. Higher elevations in north GA could only reach the mid to upr


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
The long term period begins with strong closed upper low
continuing its slow trek southward into the Tennessee Valley.
Embedded shortwaves will rotate around the base of this trough but
moisture remains limited. Could certainly envision a few showers
developing on Friday but chances still appear too low for
inclusion in the forecast at this time.

Main story for the initial portion of the extended will be the
beginning of fall like weather across the area. Both highs and
lows on Friday look to be some 3 to 5 degrees below climo which
will seem cooler given we have been close to 10 degrees above for
quite a while now. Highs will recover very quickly through the
weekend with a return to the 80s and above normal for the atlanta
metro. Lows will be slower to moderate and look for continued near
climo conditions with values in the lower to mid 50s.

Much uncertainty exists as we get to the tail end of the extended
period. GFS/ECMWF AND Canadian models continue to differ on
evolution of Tropical Storm Matthew with GFS curving quickly but
the Euro remaining slower and further south. The Canadian is
similar in forward speed to the GFS but further west. Will just
need to wait until models come into better agreement but
regardless... looks like there will be enough return flow from the
Atlantic to warrant low pops for SE sections early next week.


Dry air will be spreading into the CWA today. This will allow
humidities to drop to near 25 percent for an hour or two this afternoon
across northwest Georgia. Fuels at this time are running around 10
percent. However time requirements will not be met for a Fire
Danger Statement. This will continue to be watched.

18Z Update...
With cold front now from about an Athens (KAHN) to Columbus (KCSG)
line and continuing to move south/east, drier air has finally
invaded north and parts of central GA! VFR conditions will prevail
at KATL and surrounding airfields. Deeper cumulus field around
KMCN where low level moisture will linger for a few more hours
could yield a passing -SHRA this aftn. Could see some patchy
ground fog around KAHN late tonight but drier air should limit
this potential, so have left lower VSBY/CIGS out of TAF for now. A
few gusts 15-18KTS around KATL possible this afternoon, but better
potential tomorrow to gusty winds within stronger/gradient NW

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.



Athens          60  80  53  76 /   5   5   5   5
Atlanta         60  75  54  74 /   5   5   5   5
Blairsville     53  68  46  70 /  10  10  10   5
Cartersville    56  73  50  74 /   5   5   5   5
Columbus        64  82  56  79 /   5   0   5   5
Gainesville     60  74  53  73 /   5  10   5   5
Macon           61  85  54  80 /  20   5   5   5
Rome            56  73  50  74 /   5   5  10  10
Peachtree City  58  77  51  75 /   5   5   5   5
Vidalia         68  87  60  82 /  30   5   5   5




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