Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 280057
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015


.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...INCLUDING MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
COOLING TRENDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...AND TO DIMINISH POPS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND. ASIDE FROM THESE
CHANGES...NO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LVL
MOISTURE. LIGHTNING IS VERY LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-MID LVL WIND SHEAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPR 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA TO THE MID TO UPR
90S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST TO 20-25MPH...
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BOTH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY AND
THUS HAVE SPREAD THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH
MAINLY CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

WITH BETTER MOISTURE TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HOWEVER THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105/.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ADJUSTS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS UPR LVL HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY WILL EXIST
SOMEWHERE ACROSS GEORGIA DURING THIS TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE MUCH AS THE FEATURE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE THREATS/IMPACTS. TYPICAL BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREATS.

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH DAY BUT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS UPR LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT/NEARLY CALM
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN NNE AND NNW.
BY TUESDAY MORNING NW WINDS AT 3-5KT WILL INCREASE TO 5-8KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ISOLATED ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE AT
MAJORITY OF TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 -SHRA
FOR KAHN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  94  73  94 /  20  30  30  30
ATLANTA         76  93  75  92 /  10  20  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  88  66  87 /  20  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        76  97  76  97 /   5  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     74  91  74  90 /  20  30  30  30
MACON           70  97  74  97 /   5  20  20  30
ROME            71  94  72  94 /  20  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  73  94 /  10  20  20  30
VIDALIA         73  96  75  95 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



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