Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 161742 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1234 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017/
SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Overnight water vapor imagery reveals a strong negatively
tilted shortwave trough over the TX panhandle/W OK with weak short
wave ridging downstream of this feature across the SE. Latest sfc
analysis shows stubborn stationary boundary flirting with the north
Ga border and a weak wedge taking shape down the spine of the
Appalachians as a 1030mb high centers across Mid Atlantic coast.
Today...Axis of H5 shortwave ridge will move east allowing deeper SW
flow to influence the area while the weak wedge builds into the NE
portion of the CWA at the sfc. This will translate to an increase in
cloud cover today with a few isolated showers possible just about
anywhere...but opted to focus slight chance PoPs more along the
wedge front. Despite more cloud cover...temps are expected to top
off much above normal again with highs in the 70s most locations.
Only high temp record in jeopardy will be ATL. Areas of fog are
still possible through about mid morning today...but dense cirrus
shield is helping to keep widespread conditions at bay.
Tonight...Potent shortwave will push into the G Lakes...with SW flow
still in pace across the SE and a ridge building into the Gulf and
FL. Mild lows expected again with abundant cloud cover in place and
a continued modified airmass. Our next frontal system will finally
be approaching the area from the west..but Mid-Atlantic sfc high
responsible for Monday wedge will push offshore but will maintain
enough ridging influence to keep shower activity generally at bay-
minus an isolated shower or two.
Tuesday...Frontal boundary will continue to creep east before
eventually setting up shop near our NW border. Rain and thunder
chances increase just ahead and very near this boundary...mainly
across far NW Ga. Lack of appreciable MUCAPE and fairly weak shear
will lead to general thunder concerns below severe limits. High
temps continue well above normal with highs upper 60s north to upper
70s central. A more focused potential for rainfall falls into the
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Models are coming into a little better agreement for the long term
portion of the forecast. Frontal boundary will begin to impact
northern portions of the CWFA Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
The main forcing with this system goes well to the north, but
there should be some small chances of thunder right along the
boundary early mainly Tuesday night. This front will stall across
portions of central GA Wednesday into late Thursday. Not much
forcing aloft to interact with this boundary, so pops will remain
on the low side. However, if any perturbations in the zonal flow
come across - pops could be locally higher near the boundary.
The old front should begin to push northward as a warm front early
Friday as the next system move out of the Lower Mississippi River
Valley. The surface low pressure system will move well to the north,
with a trailing front Thursday night into Friday. In the mid levels,
the main forcing also shunts a bit to the north, but still some
decent energy this far south. The longwave through actually comes
through negatively tilted. there should be enough instability
around for thunder...and a few of the storms could become strong.
Will have to watch for the potential for severe. This front looks
to make it to near the Florida panhandle by early Saturday.
The next low pressure system/front looks to impact the area late
Sunday into Monday.
Records for 01-16
Max Temperature Min Temperature
Station High Low High Low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 76 1952 30 1994 56 1974 9 1927
1928 1972 1952 1912
KATL 73 1882 28 1972 64 1882 5 1972
KCSG 79 1950 35 1972 64 1947 14 1972
KMCN 81 1952 35 1994 64 2013 12 1927
VFR conditions predominate across the majority of the forecast area
through 06Z. Area of MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist across the far
northeast through much of the forecast period. Will likely see MVFR
or lower ceilings and visibilities into the KAHN TAF area by 03-06Z.
Scattered MVFR or lower visibilities will develop between 04Z and
14Z, however I do not expect significant impacts at the remaining
TAF sites. East to southeast winds 3-7kt become southeast to south
through the overnight period and eventually south to southwest
by 12-18Z tomorrow.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High through 06Z, then medium.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 67 50 71 56 / 20 10 20 30
Atlanta 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 20 30
Blairsville 64 51 63 52 / 20 20 50 60
Cartersville 70 54 70 56 / 10 10 30 60
Columbus 74 54 75 58 / 10 10 10 20
Gainesville 65 54 69 57 / 20 10 20 50
Macon 74 52 74 57 / 10 10 10 20
Rome 71 54 70 55 / 10 10 50 60
Peachtree City 71 49 71 56 / 10 10 20 30
Vidalia 75 54 76 58 / 20 10 10 10