Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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457
FXUS62 KFFC 231145
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017


.UPDATE...

12z aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Weak frontal boundary becoming elongated and less in phase with
upper dynamics north of the area should slowly progress southward
today. Not confident on coverage today enough to go likely pops so
have general chance area-wide, though the greater chance for any
stronger convection triggering later this afternoon would be more
confined to central GA given the higher PWATs (hydrometeor loading
supporting enhanced downdrafts/locally high precip efficiency)
and decently low mid-level temps aiding updrafts. Cannot rule out
a few isolated severe given the environment despite the
underwhelming hi- res solutions.

Thursday will have chance pops confined to the southern CWA given
the frontal position and progged advancement of the drier airmass
into north GA.

Temps limited to near normal across north GA today given the frontal
influence and enhanced cloud cover/precip potential, then slightly
cooler overall Thursday (highs mid to upper 80s north and low 90s
south).

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
In the early part of the long term, high pressure will continue
to keep north Georgia dry for the rest of the week with low chance
pops continuing across parts of central Georgia. After Friday
confidence in the solution drops as the models struggle with a
solution to the tropical wave moving into the western Gulf and its
effects on the CWA. Will trend to climatology with slight chance
to chance pops each day beginning Saturday and continuing into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be at or just below normals.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through period with cigs mainly in
3500-5000 ft range with approaching front from the north (some
brief lower cigs possibly initially). This boundary will increase
shower/TS chances during today, though threat should be isolated
to scattered and have VCSH after 16z with tempo for TSRA and
reduced VSBYs from 17-21z north and slightly later for the
southern sites. Winds should be light west initially to NW near 7
kts into afternoon. Cigs gradually scattering from the north by
evening as front pushes slowly southward.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium on initial cigs and precip coverage/timing.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  69  87  70 /  40  30  10   0
Atlanta         89  70  88  71 /  40  30  10   0
Blairsville     83  60  82  61 /  40  20  10   5
Cartersville    89  65  87  64 /  40  20  10   0
Columbus        92  74  92  72 /  40  40  30  10
Gainesville     89  68  86  68 /  40  20  10   0
Macon           92  72  90  71 /  40  40  40  20
Rome            89  65  87  63 /  40  20  10   0
Peachtree City  90  69  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
Vidalia         94  74  92  74 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Baker



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