Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 071729 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE
AFTERNOON /AOA 12 KTS/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD TODAY...BUT STILL NOT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS...AS IS HINTED BY MOS GUIDANCE.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM...IN FACT WARMER THAN WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ENSUING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ NOT BEING TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES...LEADING TO HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO UPPER 90S
OFF THE CAPROCK TODAY. THIS AFTN AND EVENING...SLIGHTLY BREEZY SFC
WINDS WILL OCCUR /10-15 MPH/ WITH STORMS REMAINING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO...GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NE
FLOW ALOFT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING DRY LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS /PWATS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 1.00 INCH/ CONTINUES
CONFIDENCE IN NIL POPS FOR THE FA TODAY. ANOTHER MILD
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW
TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE STORY THIS FCST PERIOD WITH AN
EXPANSION TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL ROCKIES.
THAT RIDGE WILL BE OF MODEST STRENGTH AND MAY HAVE SOME WEAKNESSES
MOVING THROUGH IT THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIP IN THE AREA...BUT
THIS PRECIP IN THIS PATTERN IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FCST. BEST
CHANCE MAY COME FOR NRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTL PANHANDLE WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO DIRECT IT
INTO THE FCST AREA...IN PARTICULAR IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND SEND AN OUTFLOW SWD. HOWEVER...STILL
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH SMALL CHANCES OF
IT MAKING IT INTO THE NRN ZONES. WILL HANG OFF THIS ONE MORE FCST
CYCLE AND KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION. NEXT BEST CHANCE WITH A
SIMILAR SETUP TOWARD SATURDAY IS CERTAINLY TOO FAR OUT TO INSERT
MENTION. BEYOND THAT...WILL HAVE TO HOPE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE PERIODICALLY FOR CONVECTION ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
AND NW IS ABLE TO FORM AND BECOME ORGANIZED WITH A RUN TWD THE
NWRN ZONES. AGAIN...A POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ATTM.
SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST AND WITH TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  91  66  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         91  66  93  65  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     90  66  91  67  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  67  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       92  68  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   90  66  90  67  90 /   0   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    91  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     98  72  96  71  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          93  69  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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