Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 141116
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Short period of low clouds/fog to affect LBB and PVW this morning
before burning off for another warm day. Past this TAF period, we
are watching for a cold front to push through late this evening
with thunderstorms likely affecting all three sites and gusty
northerly winds to follow. Timing and strength will be addressed
in coming TAF pkgs as confidence increases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mid level Pacific moisture and low layer Gulf moisture continue to
stream across the area today keeping the area nice and juicy ahead
of an upper level trough. Upper level trough, currently situated
north of the Four Corners area, will drive a Canadian surface cold
front through the area later this evening. Convection is expected
along the Pacific front. With PWs near 1.5 inches locally heavy
rainfall could be a possibility. With MUCAPEs near 1400 J/kg and
0- 6km shear of 30kts strong to severe storms during the late
afternoon and early evening hours can not be ruled out. Half
dollar sized hail and damaging winds of 65 mph or more will be the
main threats with these storms. Generally speaking storms will
start out in the NW corner of the CWA and translate southeastward
before being over run by the Canadian cold front.

Convection should quickly come to an end as the cold front sweeps
through the area. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop with
highs Sunday not expected to get out of the 60s area wide. This will
also open the door for near freezing over night temperatures Sunday
night into Monday in the northwestern South Plains and southwestern
Texas Panhandle. At this point confidence is not high enough for
a freeze advisory. Typical low lying areas could drop below
freezing due to light winds and much drier air behind the front.
Will mention highlights in the HWO. Near advisory winds behind the
Canadian front wind will also be seen area wide.

On Sunday, winds taper off as the day progresses and surface high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. By the beginning of the
next work week northwest flow aloft sets in as an upper level high
pressure system builds in over the West Coast. This will leave the
region dry. By mid-week next week, more zonal flow sets up ahead of
a negatively tilted trough that passes through the area Thursday. By
the end of the week, a more significant Pacific trough develops off
the west coast and could be our next money maker.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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