Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 042125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
325 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

A strong cold front is still on track to push into the region later
tonight. A prefrontal trough currently pushing across the central TX
Panhandle will move through the FA during the late afternoon and
evening. A wind shift to the north with winds around 15 mph are
expected with the trough. The actual cold front is currently
situated across southeastern CO into southern KS. It has been nearly
stationary for most of the day but is now beginning to push
southward. Cooler temperatures along with an increase of winds to 20-
25 mph are expected once the surface front pushes through. Initially
the front will be dry in terms of precipitations. Models are
somewhat in agreement with precip developing across the central
portion of the FA by tomorrow afternoon as a result of incoming
upper level pacific moisture frontogenetic forcing around H700.
Thermal profiles aloft are on the edge between liquid and frozen
precip with a present warm nose. Initially surface temperatures will
support only liquid precip (once top down moistening occurs). By the
evening wet bulbing should help lower temperatures at least into the
mid 30s to allow some snow to fall. No matter the precip mode
accumulations are expected to be light due to the amount of dry air
at the surface that will need to be overcome.

More upper level pacific moisture is expected to move into the
region tomorrow night as a 130+ knot jet pushes overhead. This jet
will allow for further lifting to occur and help spread precip
chances southward. Given uncertain thermal profiles the precip mode
will be kept a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet across the southern
South Plains and southwestern Rolling Plains before midnight before
transitioning to all snow after midnight. Any snow that accumulates
is expected to be light (around one tenth of an inch) and mainly
limited to grassy areas. Again, this is all dependent upon top down
moistening occurring. Models (mainly the GFS) are skeptical in the
moistening of the lower levels, but if the duration of precipitation
that is forecasted goes on a planned there should be enough time to
saturate the lower levels to allow precip to make it to the surface.

The weather pattern Thursday and beyond appears to remain quiet.
Meridional flow aloft will continue through Friday before turning
more northwesterly. This will allow temps to recover back into the
50s Friday. A weak front is possible late Friday into early
Saturday, but as of now it does not look to be of much affect on
temperatures. For now the weekend looks to be pleasant with highs in
the low to mid 60s.




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