Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
...WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWERLY TO SWERLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL COLD
AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING
MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  16  40  22 /  70  10  10  20
TULIA         22  16  40  23 /  70  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     24  18  41  25 /  70  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     26  18  43  28 /  60  10   0  20
LUBBOCK       24  17  43  28 /  70  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   26  19  41  29 /  60  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    26  19  42  29 /  60  10   0  20
CHILDRESS     23  19  41  27 /  80  10   0  10
SPUR          24  19  42  28 /  70  10   0  20
ASPERMONT     24  20  41  29 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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