Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
618 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The potential exists again tonight for a thunderstorm complex to
roll across the region. Will hold off on introduction of TS at
this time, but models are zeroing in on threat at KPVW and KLBB
between 06z and 09z and at KCDS after 09z. Otherwise, VFR and
light south winds are likely to prevail through Tuesday morning.
South winds are expected to pick up some Tuesday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/


RAP and satellite analysis showed a longwave trough pushing into the
Great Basin region this afternoon. A small shortwave appeared to be
developing on the lee-side of this trough in southern CO, which will
be a focus for convection later this afternoon and evening. Short
term models also show afternoon convection developing over the high
terrain of NM and pushing eastward. A CAPE-rich environment will be
available, on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, and plenty of moisture is
in place with PWATs around 1.2 inches. The HRRR has done well with
the past several events, and tonight, it is developing yet another
complex of storms to bring through much of the forecast area. With
the abundant moisture, heavy rainfall is a threat, which could lead
to damaging downburst winds.

For Tuesday, the longwave trough pushes further east with another
shortwave affecting the region. Upper level support looks to be
favorable for sustained convection with low- and mid-level moisture
still plentiful. This should be our last day of widespread storms as
high pressure over the SE US begins to retrograde towards the
central Southern US. Moisture will not completely disappear,
though, so a few afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Afternoon
highs will remain fairly steady around seasonal norms.




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