Area Forecast Discussion
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948
FXUS64 KLUB 152020
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL GENERALLY BE LACKING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO POSSIBLY ACHIEVE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE BEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS EXTENDING EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS VERY WEAK IN THIS LOCATION AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION
WILL HAVE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENCROACHES ON THE
REGION. WE WILL SEE A BOOST IN THE LIFT FIELDS FROM A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. CONVECTION WILL
HAVE GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITIES TO WORK WITH AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND
45KT DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL FEED INTO STORMS SUSTAINING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FROM
STORMS WITH MODEL PROGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.1 AND 1.3 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE VALUES ARE BETWEEN THE
75TH AND 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
TOMORROW LEAVING THE SOUTH PLAINS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE. WINDS MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH SO THAT A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS CLOSE TO WIDESPREAD RAINS. ALTHOUGH WE DID SEE
BLOWING DUST LAST WEEKEND IN A SIMILAR SETUP...THERE WAS NOT
WIDESPREAD RAIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER LIKE WHAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE ESSENTIALS OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THAT HAVE
PRODUCED THE VERY WET PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEAR TO
REMAIN LARGELY UN-CHANGED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. VERY GOOD ALL-AROUND
SOLUTION AGREEMENT THAT THE LARGE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
YUKON WITH UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING ON SHORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE. ONE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WITH STRONG DEEP
VEERED AND DRY FLOW LIKELY STEERING THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY UPPER PATTERN
WILL UNWIND A NOTCH OR TWO BUT REMAIN MODESTLY BREEZY AND STILL
DRY WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT AS THE
BEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK...MILD AND DRY.

A COLD FRONT DRAPED BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL SWING SOUTHWARD MONDAY WITH SOME VARIANCE AMONG
SOLUTIONS. BUT BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
REMOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE FRONT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO
MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH THIS TIME. LOTS OF MOISTURE NOT FAR AWAY WILL
MAKE A QUICK RETURN IN TIME FOR THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOPING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE ROCKIES WITH BACKED UPPER FLOW AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RENEWING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY
CONTAINED MODERATELY HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY
SLIGHT TAPERING UPWARDS NEEDED THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM ALSO APPEAR IN LINE WITH THAT OF
THE RECENT SYSTEMS SO WIDESPREAD EFFICIENT IF NOT HEAVY AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD BE HEADED OUR WAY AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST MID AND UPPER DRYING FOR WEDNESDAY BUT LOWER
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ENOUGH SURFACE WARMING EACH DAY TO SUPPORT SOLID CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ACTIVITY. BY FRIDAY YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
APPEARS LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED INTO POSITION VICINITY SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA APPEARING QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS 60 METERS LESS DEEP. SOLUTIONS BECOME MUCH WETTER AGAIN
FRIDAY HEADING INTO SATURDAY WHICH SURE MAKES SENSE TO US.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  75  47  76 /  60   0  10   0
TULIA         56  76  50  77 /  60  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     58  77  50  77 /  60  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     58  77  51  78 /  60  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       59  80  52  80 /  60  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   58  77  51  78 /  60  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  79  51  79 /  60  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     62  83  55  83 /  60  40  10   0
SPUR          61  83  53  82 /  60  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  88  56  85 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/29



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