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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 220718
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
318 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An area of low pressure will continue to move away from the
coast today. High pressure briefly builds into the area this
afternoon through Tuesday followed by a cold front with limited
moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure
builds back into the area for the latter half of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 245 AM Monday...As the second low offshore pulls well
away, high pressure will build into the area in earnest tonight
with diminishing winds and clearing skies. With clear skies and
light/calm winds expected late tonight, strong radiational
cooling will result producing cold overnight lows. Expecting min
temps in the mid to upper 30s across much of inland eastern NC.
There will be a brief period late where light, patchy frost
will be possible Light rain associated with the initial offshore
low has moved off of the coast early this morning. Another low
is forecast to develop and track a little further offshore
today. Western edge of the associated rain shield from the
second low may clip the immediate coast and produce some light
rain later this morning into this afternoon. Consensus of the
models keep the rain just off of the coast with the GFS/FV3 the
most bullish on coastal precipitation today. Will side with the
consensus and will trim back the precipitation area and lower
PoPs along the coast today. There will be enough moisture,
however to keep a considerable amount of clouds across the area
and the gradient will tight enough to produce a gusty northerly
wind with gusts 25-35 mph (highest coast). Highs will be well
below normal today only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Monday...As the second coastal low tracks well
away, high pressure will build into the area in earnest tonight.
This will produce clearing skies and diminishing winds
resulting in strong radiational cooling and cold overnight lows.
Expecting min temps in the mid to upper 30s across much of
inland eastern NC tonight. There could be a brief period of
patchy, light frost in the typically colder rural locations, but
since this will be very localized and light will hold off on
issuing a Frost Advisory at this time. Along the coast lows will
be in the 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Monday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through the weekend.

Tuesday...Chilly start to the day. High pressure builds into
the area resulting in clear skies, with highs near 70 inland,
mid 60s for beaches.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent
decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the upper 40s to
start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s. High pressure to our south moves offshore through
the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer from southerly to
westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day
in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts
inland, slightly higher for OBX. Fortunately RHs will be well
above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look
to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, low 70s for the coast,
aided by the south veering west flow through the day. Wednesday
night a dry cold front will move through the region from NW to
SE. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak
cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs
for Wednesday. As the front moves through Wednesday night,
northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain
below 30 kts.

Thursday to Sunday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Removed all
PoP mentions with this update for Saturday as high looks to
shelter us from any incoming precip. Sunday the high to our NE
moves south, settling just offshore or off the SC coast as we
get into next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 245 AM Monday...Expecting a mainly VFR TAF through the
period with the exception of early this morning through 9Z where
a brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible. There will be
enough moisture to produce widespread clouds today with bases
5-10K ft. Northerly winds will gust to 20 kt through the
afternoon. Tonight skies will become clear and winds will
diminish.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Friday with high pressure dominating the long term.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 245 AM Monday...Strong northerly winds will continue
today as a second area of low pressure develops off the NC coast
and continues to produce N winds 15-25 kt. Seas this morning
will continue 6-9 ft subsiding slightly to 5-8 ft this
afternoon. As high pressure builds over the waters tonight,
winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 kt late. As a result,
seas over the northern and southern waters will subside to 3-5
ft late. Seas will remain elevated around 6 ft over outer the
central waters into at least Tue though.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will
linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening
low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds Wednesday.
Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will be near 25
kts during the morning/early afternoon hours Wednesday from a
pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday evening. As a dry
cold front moves southeastward Wednesday night, northerly winds
will pick up behind it, gusting near 25 kts for all waters
except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, and coastal waters from
Cape Lookout to Surf City. Remainder of the long term looks to
be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet Thursday-Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...JME/RJ
MARINE...JME/RJ