Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 132002
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME STRATOCU MARINE CLOUDS
ENCROACH UPON THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS DEEPENS. NNW/N WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 MPH IN THE
EVENING AND AROUND 5 MPH MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOW MINS WILL BE A
FEW/SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING. U30S-L40S NORTH OF
I-4 WITH L-M40S OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT
U40S SPACE COAST AND INDIAN RIVER COAST WITH L50S ST. LUCIE/MARTIN
COASTS. A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO A MARINE INFLUENCE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

SUN...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST QUICKLY
DISSIPATES WITH ENE/E FLOW DEVELOPING AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS
APPROACHING 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 10-15 MPH FURTHER INLAND.
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING MARINE
STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST AND FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY BUT A SMALL THREAT FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH QPF WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS UNDER 20 PERCENT HERE. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

MON AND TUE... SE RETURN FLOW AROUND RETREATING WESTERN ATLC RIDGE
WILL INCREASE AVBL MOISTURE DURING MON. SFC HEATING COUPLED WITH
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES WILL BRING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS MAINLY FOR THE
COAST AND THEN INLAND LATER INTHE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LTST
GUID SHOWS THE LOW QUITE FAR NORTH THAN WOULD BE CONSIDERED MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LOCAL RAINFALL PRODUCTION.

WL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH PORTION OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER SIGNALS FOR MAKING THIS FORECAST ARE TRENDING
LESS FAVORABLE DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP A MORNING
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE LAND AREAS AS THE TROUGH/FRONT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

REST OF WEEK...(FROM PREV DISC)
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATER TUE
...BRINGING DRYING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE MIDWEST TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SAT...WITH A RIDGE AXIS SETTLING INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL. LATE WEEK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD PUSH A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE COAST...BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS DRY AND MAINLY VFR. NNW/N WINDS TONIGHT 5-10
KTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST
LATE AS ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MARINE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND ON SUN WITH SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH ATMOSPHERE AS A
WHOLE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL END SCA WITH NEXT CWF ISSUANCE AS
BOTH WINDS/SEAS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AS ADVERTISED BEHIND LATEST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS UP FOR
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. THE GULF STREAM OPPOSING NNW/N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING TO NNE...THEN NE THROUGH DAYBREAK SUN
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15-20 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 OFFSHORE.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL STILL CREATE CHOPPY/ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

SUN...BREEZY NE/ENE WINDS FORECAST OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS 3-
5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE. STILL RATHER POOR/ROUGH SMALL
CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS WITH CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SEAS.

MON NIGHT-WED...BREEZY SOUTH FLOW IS INDICATED FOR MON NIGHT. THIS
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS...MAINLY NORTH PORTION. MODELS
DIFFER A BIT ON THE TUE-WED WINDS BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS FOR A
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED DRY BEHIND LATEST COLD
FRONT. MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 30S INTO THE INTERIOR. 20FT
WINDS NW/NNW AT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  54  75 /   0  20  20  20
MCO  45  69  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
MLB  50  67  59  75 /   0  10  20  20
VRB  50  69  59  77 /   0  10  20  20
LEE  44  66  53  76 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  45  67  53  76 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  46  67  54  75 /   0  10  10  20
FPR  49  70  60  76 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.