Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160918
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
418 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight...The next 24H will serve as a transition from
currently weakening high pressure moving off the US E cst. A strong
cold front will then approach the area by early Wed. Lighter winds
veering more onshore will allow temps to recover well into the 60s
with L70s from the Treasure Cst to Lake Okeechobee this aftn under
partly sunny skies. Rain chcs remain less than 10 pct. Winds will
become light to calm tonight, with some backing forecast to NW
component allowing temps to uniformly fall into the M-U40s over the
mainland and around 50 at the beaches under partly cloudy skies.

Wed and Wed night...Progressive longwave trough amplifies as it
approaches eastern seaboard late Wed, with axis crossing CWA
around midnight Wed. Zonal flow develops in the wake of the
rapidly departing trough, persisting through the end of the work
week. Associated surface front slices through central Florida Wed
evening, but with very limited deep-layer moisture in advance of
feature and rapidly waning low-level convergence and minimal
dynamic support, will remain with POP-free forecast. Only notable
changes from 24 hours ago is GFS/ECMWF agreement in slightly
faster FROPA timing which should allow Thu morning mins to fall a
few degrees lower than previous forecast. Dropped freezing line to
Daytona-Sanford-Four Corners in agreement with MOS guidance, but
have stayed several degrees above the MOS mins owing to continuity
with previous forecast and previous over agressive cooling with
previous, similarly sourced airmass. In any event, after examining
next guidance cycle, dayshift will likely issue Freeze Watch for
early Thu for Lake/Volusia Counties, and possibly for adjacent
southern counties. Stay tuned. With 5-10 mph NW winds early Thu,
wind chill readings will fall to the mid to upper 20s inland, and
30s along the coast (except 40s Martin County coast).

Thu-Fri...Thu will be cold, even with plentiful sunshine,
especially across the northernmost areas, where temps will
struggle toward 50. Farther south maxs will reach mid-upper 50s
central areas and low-mid 60s far SE coast. One more cold night
into early Friday as surface high settles toward the panhandle.
Veering boundary layer flow will acquire along-shore or slight
onshore component to keep mins in the 40s (except lower 50s Martin
coast) south of the Cape. North of the Cape and across the
interior north of Okeechobee County, mins will fall into the 30s,
with a chance for near freezing in wind protected areas of NW
Volusia and NE Lake Counties. Max temps will begin to moderate Fri
(plus 5-8 degrees relative to Thu) as anticyclone to the north
noses into the Atlantic, allowing local winds to veer onshore.

Sat-Mon...Mid-level cut-off over TX weakens significant over Gulf
with minimal impact to FL. Tail end of next mid-latitude trough
passes north of the area late Monday which may allow a weakening
surface boundary to approach/cross CWA late Mon or beyond.
GFS/ECMWF differ with degree of moisture return in advance of
feature. For now, will indicate isolated showers Sunday,
increasing to low-end scattered Monday. Temps moderate to near
normal over the weekend and a little above normal Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail over the next 24H with the possibility of
some Strato-cu NR FL035-045 along and near the cst mnly FM KTTS to
KVRB and KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Diminishing winds to around 10 kt with seas 3 to 5
ft near shore and and greater than 5 ft offshore will incrementally
confine advisory conditions to the outer waters and Gulf Stream this
morning.  A further reduction in headlines; albeit temporarily, is
possible for the outer waters for the overnight period ahead of the
next front.

Wed...very brief period of improving wind/sea conditions Wed
morning/afternoon, before NW/N wind surge rapidly develops across
the waters following frontal passage. Long fetch will allows seas
to rapidly respond Wed evening and overnight, with seas peaking
toward daybreak Thu 8-11 ft offshore and 5-8 ft nearshore. SCA
will likely need to be raised again by sunset.

Thu...As surface high builds east across the panhandle toward the
Atlantic, winds will veer NE and lessen to 10-15 kt during the
afternoon and 5-10 kt overnight. Seas will be slow to subside,
especially offshore, but gradually improving during the day and
especially overnight.

Fri-Sat...High pressure ridge elongates north of the waters,
allowing winds to remain light and veer easterly by Sat. Favorable
boating conditions return with seas lowering to 3-4 ft nearshore
and 4-5 ft offshore Fri and improving further to 2-3 ft all waters
Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  44  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  70  47  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  49  69  39 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  69  50  71  41 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  68  47  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  69  47  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  69  50  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  49  72  42 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Spratt



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