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000
FXUS62 KMLB 271323
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
906 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The morning sounding at XMR yielded a decrease in H5 temperature
since Wed to a little more palatable -7.3C @H5 along with SW to W
winds around 10 kt through the H85 to H5 layer. Suitable PWAT nr
1.83 inches will combine with afternoon heating to produce sct storms
primarily over inland sections of ECFL from mid to late aftn. HRRR
guidance shows the best potential for storm development roughly
north of the Beachline Expessway including the theme parks, metro
Orlando and the I-4 corridor, with a little stronger Wly winds in
the same areas moving storms toward the east coast of northern
Brevard and Volusia ounties. Lesser potential exists from Osceola
and Okeechobee Co`s toward the Treasure Coast due to proximity of
high pressure and lighter environmental flow aloft.

...Prev disc...

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis will remain across southern sections of
central Florida, producing a relatively light (5-10mph) S/SW low
level flow across the region. An increase in moisture, with PW
values 1.9-2.0 inches, and digging S/W aloft across north Florida
should help generate a little more convection today. Greatest
coverage is expected over the interior near to east of the I-4
corridor where greatest moisture will exist and late day boundary
collisions are favored. PoPs remain similar to previous forecast,
ranging from 20 percent along the Treasure Coast where sea breeze
will push inland a little faster, to 40 to 50 percent farther north
and inland.

Even with more convective development this afternoon, temps should
still be able to rise quickly through the morning and early
afternoon with highs reaching the low 90s along the coast and mid
90s over the interior. These hot temperatures will combine with
humid conditions to produce heat indices in the 100-105 range.
Breaks in the heat are then expected into mid to late afternoon as
showers, storms and cloud cover increase in coverage.

Lingering showers and storms will be possible into the early evening
as they move slowly east-northeast, and possibly back toward the
Volusia/Brevard coast. Otherwise, expect convection to diminish by
midnight, with partly cloudy skies overnight and lows in the mid
70s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR through the morning hours, then tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions in isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
storms. Greatest coverage expected near to east of the I-4 corridor
toward Volusia/northern Brevard coast from the mid to late
afternoon. Lingering showers and storms still possible into early
evening, then convection diminishing by midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Surface ridge axis across the waters will produce a
southerly flow that will become southeast this afternoon, as the
east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds up to 10-15 knots are
forecast with seas generally ranging from 1-2 feet today, and up to
3 feet offshore into tonight.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP