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228
FXUS62 KMLB 250743
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A surface trough marked by some spotty showers pivoting Swd over
the coastal Atlc waters will veer winds to a Nly component this
morning as the low level feature sweeps South across the area.
Mentionable rain chcs will remain isold as forcing appears only
modest at best during the heat of the day due to marginally
favorable instability and boundary interactions.

Best chc of showers and perhaps a brief storm or two will shift
to the Srn portion of the area by mid aftn as the sfc boundary
followed by increasingly stable airmass sinks swd during the
afternoon into evening. Temps will warm into the 90s across inland
sites with mid-U80s along the immediate cst. A few lingering
evening showers wl remain possible across the Treasure Cst and
Lake Okee regions where better moisture in the presence of the
slowing boundary remain in place. Lows will fall into the 70s.

The main hazard early this week will continue to be large swells
ascd with Hurricane Maria coming ashore along the coast. A High
Surf Advisory and Rip current hazard statement is in effect before
daybreak today through the daylight hours.

Tuesday-Thursday...Anomalously dry air filtering down the backside
of Maria will keep prospects for precipitation quite low for late
September. Should any showers manage to form, they would likely
occur over southern areas where slightly better atmospheric moisture
will exist in the presence of sea/lake breeze interactions. Thunder
was kept out of the forecast through Wednesday, with a slight chance
advertised Thursday as deeper moisture encroaches into the Treasure
Coast and Okeechobee county. High temperatures will be several
degrees above their late September averages, even along the coast
where light westerly flow will warm temps to 90-91 before the sea
breeze provides some mid/late afternoon relief.

Friday-Sunday...Guidance indicates a gradual uptick in moisture from
south to north late this week. At the same time, shortwave energy
aloft will try to cut off into a weak low over the peninsula,
providing both lift and instability. Will show a steady increase in
PoPs, initially 30-40% on Friday with higher chances across the
south, building to 50% areawide this weekend. Increased cloud cover
and developing onshore flow will drop temperatures from their mid-
week highs, still near 90 over inland areas on Friday, otherwise mid-
upper 80s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will be primary condition with isold shra and MVFR conds
ascd with and spots of shra mainly along the coast early this
morning through 25/17z then ISOLD shra and spreading to inland
and coastal sites FM 25/17Z-25/23Z. becmg VFR areawide aft 26/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...The combination of Nly winds and swell will
pose hazards for small craft with sig waves of 7-8Ft near the
coast and 8-10FT offshore today. Slow decay of swell will keep a
Advisory headline in place areawide for seas in the forecast later
tonight as gradient winds diminish to less than 10 kt.

Tue-Fri...Swells from Hurricane Maria will gradually subside from
mid to late week, though advisory headlines for seas greater than 7
feet will be required through at least Wednesday afternoon
(especially offshore). Winds remain at or below 10 knots, starting
from the west each morning before turning onshore near the coast as
the Atlantic sea breeze develops. Abnormally dry air will keep
precipitation chances quite low through at least Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St Johns River
near Cocoa, above Lake Harney near Geneva, near Sanford, near
Deland and at Astor.

River levels remain high over the middle St Johns River Basin
with all forecast points above flood stage. The river stage at all
forecast points along the river will remain steady over the next
couple of days, with a very gradual decline beginning in the
middle part of this week.

Major flooding also continues above Lake Harney near Geneva.

Moderate flooding is occurring over much of the middle
St Johns River Basin, including the forecast points near Cocoa,
near Sanford, near Deland and at Astor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  91  74  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  89  74  90  74 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  89  72  91  74 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  91  73  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  91  73  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  92  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  90  72  91  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-
     Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to midnight EDT Tuesday night for Flagler Beach to Volusia-
     Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
     County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Ulrich