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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120147 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER MS/LA
BORDER THIS EVENING...PUSHING EAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS IS
ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF
COAST. THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT BAND OF STORMS WELL OFFSHORE
TAMPA BUT EXPECT THIS DEEP CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION...THIS UPPER
LOW IS GETTING KICKED OUT AND WEAKENED BY A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN US WED.

THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE THE FL GULF
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTH OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.10 INCH.  CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE..AND PRECLUDE THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OF THIS
MORNING FROM REOCCURRING.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVISORY (SUSTAINED
20 MPH/GUSTY) MAY BE NEEDED. WHILE THE MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LONG
GONE RESULTING IN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES AND DIVGT JET
ASCENT IS LACKING...GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT PWAT (1.5 INCHES) AND MAXES
PROGGED IN THE 82-87F RANGE...DON`T FELL ENTIRELY COMFORTABLE
REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AREA. BUT AREAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT LOOKS PRETTY LOW. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH...
INCLUDING THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. RECORD
HIGHS LOOK A BIT OUT OF REACH BUT VERO BEACH COULD GET CLOSE TO
THEIR RECORD OF 88 FROM 1962 IF THERE IS ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 13/00Z. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH
INLAND AND SHOULD PRODUCE A TEMPO WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE SE AT
SFB/MCO THROUGH 03Z. THEN A LIGHT S/SW WIND WILL RETURN AS THE SEA
BREEZE DIMINISHES. SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD NE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AFT 04Z...MOST LIKELY 06Z-12Z. WILL
KEEP VCSH IN FOR WED ALL TERMINALS. OR EQUAL OR GREATER CONCERN WILL
BE INCREASING SW WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
ESP MCO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...INCREASING S/SW WINDS TO 12-17KT TONIGHT AND AROUND
20KT ON WED. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE...NEARSHORE WAVE MODEL
ONLY SHOWED 3-4FT IN THE 20-60 LEGS THROUGH SUNSET WED...SO HELD OFF
ON ANY SCA UNTIL 3RD PD (WED NIGHT)...BUT WILL START CAUTIONARY STMT
FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY WED. FEW GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING SHRA/TS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  82  49  64 /  40  40  10   0
MCO  63  82  53  67 /  30  40  10   0
MLB  65  84  57  67 /  30  40  10   0
VRB  63  84  61  68 /  20  40  20   0
LEE  62  82  48  65 /  40  40  10   0
SFB  62  82  52  66 /  40  40  10   0
ORL  63  82  51  66 /  30  40  10   0
FPR  62  84  61  68 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER