Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 010743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CANAVERAL PROFILERS AND MOTION OF ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS PLACE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MODELS STEADFASTLY BUILD THIS
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK.

DO NOT EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THEM FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING
CHANCE POPS TO THE TREASURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE WITH SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM BREVARD
TO VOLUSIA SHOULD BE WEST OF I-95. SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE.

TONIGHT...INTERIOR CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNSET. AS FOR THE COAST...THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL HAVE A SOLID ONSHORE WIND FLOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO DO NOT EXPECT MANY ATLANTIC
SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. MAV/MET POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG
THE COAST...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWER MENTION. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT FOR MORE DISTURBED ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK TO GET
SOME OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY RARE
SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

TUE-WED...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS DURING THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO THE
SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. OVERALL POPS
REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF
THE REGION BY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LOCAL WRF INDICATES CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WEST OF CANAVERAL/KDAB AFTER 18Z...SO
ONLY CARRIED VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE INTERIOR TAFS FROM ABOUT
20-24Z. THE MODEL HAS CONVECTIVE INITIATION A LITTLE EARLIER ON
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IT STILL LOOKS WEST
OF KMLB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT SOUTHERLY EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE WITH CLOUD LINES
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST...MAINLY SEBASTIAN INLET
SOUTHWARD.

TUES-WED...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS 10-15KTS...WHERE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  74 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  94  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  90  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  75  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
ORL  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES



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