Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 021257
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
856 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING 915MHZ CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. THE KXMR SOUNDING PROFILE
SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +9.7C/-
6.7C) WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.93 INCHES. EVEN WITH THE
BUMP BACK UP IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THERE STILL IS WARMER AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS DEEPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
SUBSIDENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. BOTH EAST/WEST SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND WITH LATE DAY COLLISIONS AND SUBSEQUENT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-4
CORRIDOR. CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS HERE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA ELSEWHERE. GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT SUGGESTS
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BURN OUT SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. SRLY WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN U80S/L90S...MIN TEMPS IN THE M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SSW/SW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND SLOW MARCH
INLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. STORM STEERING FLOW
RATHER WEAK AND SWRLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS. ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AGAIN
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
THE ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE...BCMG E/SE
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN AS THE SEABREEZE DVLPS. SEAS AOB 2FT...UP
TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY WILL ALLOW
FURTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LCL GROUND TO DRY OUT. AVG LATE SUMMER/EARLY
FALL DIURNAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE STORMS DRIVEN BY SEA AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. HOWEVER...WHILE SOME DRYING HAS
OCCURRED...OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH LIMITED
ADDITIONAL HOLDING CAPACITY. AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP GENERATED BY AFTN STORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER



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