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000
FXUS62 KMLB 241337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY...SHIFTING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE
THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND...COLLIDING SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE
COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET.

THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING AND WE SHOULD SEE IT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 11
AM.

THE QUESTION FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
DESPITE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WITH PWATS AROUND
1" AND A NOTED CAP BETWEEN 800MB-750MB...MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY ARE EVEN LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BRINGING IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TAIL
END OF THE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTHEAST
LAST NIGHT.

PERHAPS THE MOST TELLING STRIKE AGAINST ANY CONVECTION IS THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
LOOP CURRENT...NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH OF IT
OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AND CUT BACK THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WESTERN
ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND LOW-MID
80S COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING BUT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER NW OF
KISM-KSFB-DAB THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SKC. OCCASIONAL BKN CU
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FL040-050. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST
SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA
BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 15 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEAS 1-2FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI