Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO FEED INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING QUICKLY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT
2500 FEET AND STAYING THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 10000 FEET SUGGESTING
FAST MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING STRONG VORTICITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-12C
TO-14C RANGE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 100 TO 130 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TO A DEGREE WHICH MAY
HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HELD THE RAIN COVERAGE TO THE 80 POP OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY. ALL THE MODEL...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...GUIDANCE WERE
SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING LAKE COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON...AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE EASTERN CONUS
500 MB TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD
RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...INTRODUCED A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTN AND ALL THE AREA THU. BUT DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS/SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OFFSHORE AT 4AM EXPANDING
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BUILD SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  50  68  45 /  80  20   0   0
MCO  81  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
MLB  83  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
VRB  85  55  70  46 /  80  20   0   0
LEE  79  52  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  81  52  69  48 /  80  20   0   0
ORL  81  53  69  48 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  85  58  71  46 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



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