Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
926 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016


Today-Tonight....Morning KXMR sounding shows very moist conditions
with a PWAT of 1.92 inches, but very warm temperatures aloft (700mb
+9.2C, 500mb -6.7C). CAPE wind profilers uniformly southwesterly
once again averaging 15 kts off of the deck. These winds may inhibit
or at least delay development of the ECSB, though the forecast does
call for these winds to diminish a bit as the previous day. Both
west/east coast sea breeze convection will venture inland with a
larger scale collision across ECFL. Light southwest steering flow
will push some cells back towards the east coast with a few moving
across the intracoastal and near shore Atlc waters. Storm motion out
of the SW/SSW at around 5 mph this afternoon.

Still expecting a few strong storms containing locally heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds to 40-50 mph. Nuisance flooding
of low-lying areas possible, especially areas that received
torrential downpours over the past couple of days. Highs will still
manage the U80s to around 90 degrees near the coast with L90s

Tonight...Scattered storms will continue into the early evening and
gradually diminish through mid to late evening. Cloud debris will
thin thru the overnight. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 70s


.AVIATION...VFR thru at least 16z-17z then increasing SHRA/TSRA
coverage across east central FL from 18z-00z. TEMPO TSRA most
terminals this aftn with MVFR conditions in convection. Expect
convection in the evening to concentrate along the eastern peninsula
before pushing east into ATLC waters overnight. Cloud debris will
thin late tonight.


.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Surface ridge axis over the south-central
FL peninsula. Offshore morning flow will transition to onshore in
the afternoon as the pgrad weakens and the ECSB develops and pushes
inland. Wind speeds 10-15 kts over the open Atlc will transition to
offshore again later this evening and overnight. Seas 2-3 ft near
shore and up to 4 ft well offshore. Afternoon/early evening storms
moving offshore...more numerous N of Sebastian Inlet. Winds/seas
higher invof convection. Mariners need to keep an eye westward for
approaching storms.


.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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