Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201550 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1149 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOWERED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOCKED IN ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS PULLING THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS DOWN THE COAST LINE. RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AT 9AM WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 60S WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH JUST INLAND
AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH WELL INLAND.

AFTER LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP WITH LOW LEVEL RUC WINDS
PLACED OVER TOP CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OR SHORT PERIODS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A BETTER
OPTION. THE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST LOOK TO STAY AROUND ALL DAY AS
BOTH THE RUC AND 06Z GFS ARE SHOWING VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AIR
MASS IN THE 925-850MB...ROUGHLY 3000-5000 FOOT RANGE...HOLDING FAST
THROUGH SUNSET IF NOT LONGER PER THE GFS MODEL RUN.

CURRENT HIGHS OF UPPER 70S INTERIOR MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH BUT
WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE CAN PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD QUICKLY THEN DROP BACK AS SKIES CLOUD OVER.
ALONG THE COAST IS A DIFFERENT STORY. NORTHERLY WIND OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 68...68 AT DAYTONA BEACH...AND LOW
70S...72 AT COCOA BEACH...WILL KEEP THE OCEANFRONT AND AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON FROM REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S LOOK TO BE A BETTER CALL.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.

SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.

MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.

WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&


.AVIATION...MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALL DAY.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND (11-3.9)UM
LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW BASED SC
AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD TYPE
SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA ~OVC-
BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR BKN025-035
MUCH OF TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 009 WAS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. THE BUOYS 4
AND 6 MILES OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS HAVE NOT FULLY IMPACTED THE SEA SURFACE AS THEY ARE
SLOWLY INCREASING AND SHIFTED FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PATTERN OF NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS PLUS
WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS STILL A
GOOD CALL. THE EXPANDING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 10 AM TO
COVER ALL OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE NEARSHORE FROM FLAGLER
BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET STILL A GOOD CALL.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH
AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT).
THE SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT
4AM...AND EXTEND TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT
DOESN`T START AT 4.

SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  60  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  78  60  79  59 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  75  64  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  75  66  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  78  59  80  59 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  78  61  79  58 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  78  62  80  60 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  78  66  78  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST







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