Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 260945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET/BREEZY/COOLER THEN CLEARING LATE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TODAY THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING...

CURRENTLY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FULL LATITUDE H85-H50 TROF EXTENDING FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...A POWERFUL H30-H20 JET PATTERN
WITH A +150KT CORE LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND A +130KT CORE
DIGGING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...A FRNTL BNDRY STALLED JUST N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...
A SATURATION BAND RIDING JUST AHEAD OF IT WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN
2.3"-2.4"...AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...A PRECIP BAND WITH
TRAINING ECHOS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. NMRS REPORTS OF
24HR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 5.0" N OF CAPE CANAVERAL/LAKE KISSIMMEE
MATCHES UP WELL WITH RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION...THOUGH RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL HAS BEEN LARGELY
AOB 2.0". SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE U60S/L70S ACRS THE
CWA...BUT DROPPING INTO THE L/M50S ACRS THE BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ON THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
LIFTING JET WILL ALLOW THE DVLPG CAROLINA LOW TO CONTINUE DEEPENING
THRU THE DAY AS IT RACES UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THE LOW ALREADY HAS
SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NW CARIB AND WILL PROVIDE
THE TORQUE NECESSARY TO CRANK THE COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTN. LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MUCH LWR THAN THE PAST 24HRS AS THE SATURATION BAND WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE FL STRAITS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TREASURE
COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THRU MID MRNG WITH AVG QPF BTWN
0.50"-0.75"...LCL HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE AMNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0"
FURTHER N...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AVG QPF BTWN 0.10"
AND 0.25". PRECIP WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THRU THE STATE.

SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AS SAT PICS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO THE ERN GOMEX/WRN FL
PANHANDLE. DENSE CLOUD COVER...RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DVLPG NW
BREEZE WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPS FROM WARMING BY MORE 5F DEG FROM
THEIR DAWN READINGS...IN FACT AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE FROPA WILL
ACTUALLY SEE THEIR TEMPS FALL THRU THE AFTN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS OCCURRING BEFORE NOON....GENERALLY L/M70S. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER SUNSET AS THE NW FLOW SCOURS OUT ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE. TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE L/M40S
OVER THE INTERIOR...M/U40S ALONG THE COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY...
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING THEN A
BIT OF A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS INDICATED IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE IT OCCASIONALLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PROVIDE A COOL
NORTH FLOW THU NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY
SET UP A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH...LOWER 40S
INLAND AND NEAR 50 AT THE BEACHES SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

FRI-NEXT WED...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI-
SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE
TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY.
MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH
ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO
MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: THRU 26/12Z...S/SW ARND 10KTS BCMG W/NW 14-18KTS
WITH SFC G22-26KTS...CONTG THRU 26/18Z. BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW
8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/14Z...S/SW 8-12KTS. BTWN 26/14Z-26/16Z...
WNDSHFT TO NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC G22-25KTS...CONTG THRU 26/20Z. BTWN
26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/16Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL012-018
WITH LCL IFR CIGS BTWN FL004-006...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR -RA...LCL
MVFR IN RA/BR. BTWN 26/16Z-26/19Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS
VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-038
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR IN
RA/BR...LCL IFR IN +RA/BR. BTWN 26/18Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA
FL120...VSBYS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
SFC LOW DVLPG OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RACE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE LCL ATLC BY LATE AFTN.
MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BCMG A FRESH TO
STRONG NW BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE OFFSHORE LEG THRU EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE LATE AFTN INTO SUNSET. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND
5-7FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...
EARLY MORNING WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA... SO CONDITIONS MAY
LOOK GOOD FOR BOATING WHILE AT SHORE...BUT THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL
BE POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS.

FRI-SUN...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PROVIDE A NORTH WIND
FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH
FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ELONGATES WELL INTO
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  47  65  41 /  50   0   0   0
MCO  64  44  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
MLB  68  46  70  42 /  60   0   0   0
VRB  71  46  70  48 /  60   0   0   0
LEE  62  42  65  40 /  50   0   0   0
SFB  63  44  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ORL  63  44  67  44 /  50   0   0   0
FPR  73  46  72  47 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...CRISTALDI




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