Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 181932
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Monday...Center of a mid level anticyclone will build over
the Atlantic just to our east.  At the surface, a continental high
pushing offshore to our north will merge with the Bermuda high
pressure ridge. This will result in rather strong high pressure over
the western Atlantic with a ridge axis extending into the southeast
states. We will have an increasing east/southeast wind flow, but
due to the proximity of the ridge aloft, moisture will be limited
and confined to a shallow layer. Therefore, will maintain a dry
forecast over land.

There`s a chance for fog again late tonight, but with the increasing
boundary layer onshore flow, think that any significant fog will get
shoved to interior sections, probably west of I-4.

It sounds like a broken record, but temperatures will continue above
normal with lows in the lower 60s, except mid 60s Space/Treasure
Coast.  Highs Mon look to be in the lower 80s along the coast and
mid 80s inland.

Mon Night...Overnight lows in the 60s with the deepening onshore
flow. Patchy fog, locally dense, with some low stratus clouds will
again be a problem, especially into the interior overnight and early
Tue morning.

Tue-Sun...Continue with a persistent forecast for the extended. The
strong western Atlc mid-level ridging remains in firm control of the
weather pattern across the FL peninsula and southeast U.S. as it
slowly retrogrades into the GOMEX by the end of the week while on a
gradual weakening trend. The continued lack of mid/upper support
will keep surface fronts north of the area. While short-lived,
pockets of deeper moisture undercut the strong/deep high pressure,
PoPs will generally remain below 20pct (generous) thru the period.
Onshore flow at the surface continues with surface ridging focus
north of central FL through at least Sat. Medium range models show
the ridge axis settling southward into the central peninsula on Sun.
Highs/lows remain consistent and well above normal. The greatest
weather concern remains fog/low cloud potential each night/morning,
especially well into the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through late tonight. The exception will be KDAB where
some sea fog was currently pushing ashore. Satellite shows this
will be short-lived though. Otherwise, increasing east/southeast
boundary layer flow should push the chance for significant late
night LIFR-IFR fog west of Interstate 4.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Monday...Stronger high pressure building north of the
waters will start to produce a slowly increasing onshore gradient
wind tonight/Mon. East/southeast winds will pick up to 10-15
knots from about Cape Canaveral southward tonight, then across all
of the waters Mon and closer to 15 knots south of Sebastian
Inlet. This will build seas to 3-4 feet, which will be primarily
wind wave (4-5 second period).

Tue-Thu...Surface high pressure ridging north of the waters will
keep a steady onshore (SE/ESE) flow across the forecast area. Wind
speeds generally 10-15 kts, but could occasionally approach 15-20
kts over the Gulf Stream south of the Cape thru mid-week. Seas
generally 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream. Some guidance
showing 6 ft seas over the Gulf Stream, but have capped at 5 ft
for now. Shower chances remain at only slight chance at best.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  80  64  80 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  64  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  69  81  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  67  81  70  83 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  64  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  64  82  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  65  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  66  81  70  83 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Johnson



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