Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281913
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Wednesday...Surface high pressure ridge over the area will
slide south as a frontal boundary moves offshore the eastern
seaboard.  The front won`t affect the local area, but a slight
increase in moisture will occur.  Weak ridging aloft will build
overhead on Wed and produce subsidence, keeping the moisture
shallow, so dry weather will continue.

Will carry a chance of fog overnight, but the dry ground should
continue to keep it shallow/brief.  Any lingering wildfires
producing significant smoke could lead to local visibility problems
on some highways again.

Min temps will continue to slowly modify and should mainly be in the
lower 60s.  A little more westerly wind flow on Wed should allow max
temps along the coast to reach the mid 80s.  A few upper 80s are
likely over the interior.

Thu...Flat ridge will continue across S FL with low level flow
veering to the SE/S in the afternoon. High temps will reach 83-84
near the east coast and around 87 across the interior. Enough low
level moisture and low level convergence aided by the inland moving
east coast sea breeze will support a low chance for late afternoon
showers mainly north of Sanford.

Thu night...SE/SSE low level flow will increase some Thu night and
stay elevated around 10 mph along the beaches. Dry weather is
expected with lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

Fri-Tue...An intense upper cyclone over the central CONUS early in
the period remains forecast to track eastward and off of the mid
Atlc coast Sat afternoon. This will push a weak surface trough
across the area on Sat, preceded by a broken band of showers and
isolated storms which should weaken in coverage/intensity upon
approach to CWA Fri aftn/evening, all in association with some
energy aloft ahead of the large upper cyclone to the north. Some
residual moisture lingering around and especially south of KMCO may
allow for additional light precipitation ahead/along approaching
trough Sat across the southern half of our CWA. Much drier/stable
air moves back into the area behind the trough Sat night/Sun.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with L-M80s along the
coast and U80s inland for highs and lows mainly in the 60s areawide.

The medium range models continue to differ on the next low pressure
system for early next week. The GFS remains slower and drags this
disturbance across the area on Tue. The faster ECMWF continues to
push this system into ECFL on Mon lingering it around thru Tue.
Added a slight chance for thunder mainly to the northern interior on
Monday afternoon and may need to consider for Tuesday as well with
later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light winds over the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is
possible early Wednesday morning but confidence is not high enough
to include in TAFs at this time. Visibility restrictions will again
be possible near any wildfires.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Wed...Continued good boating conditions with light southwest-
west winds due to weak high pressure ridge settling to south
Florida.  Lingering east swells could produce rough conditions near
inlets during the outgoing tide.

Wed night-Thu...SE winds mainly 7-12 knots with seas 3-4 ft in an
east swell expected.

Thu night into the weekend...Winds will increase to 15-20 knots Thu
night into Friday with seas building to at least SCEC levels
offshore. A front will move across the waters Friday night and allow
winds to switch to westerly by Saturday morning. Flow will then
weaken into Sat night and return to the E/SE by Sunday afternoon.
Highest storm chances will occur Friday afternoon into Friday
evening ahead of the next front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  63  88  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  63  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  60  84  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  88  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  64  88  66  87 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  59  82  61  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
MID-LONG TERM....Volkmer
AVIATION...Combs


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