Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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986
FXUS62 KMLB 300717
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
317 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today/Tonight...The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain
across Central Florida today favoring light southerly winds except
in vicinity of a southeasterly sea breeze. This will keep the
afternoon convective pattern similar to yesterday having a recurring
inland/interior skew. Meager opportunity for coastal locations once
again. Distribution of deeper layer moisture north and west with
some drying moving in over the Treasure Coast ahead of an advancing
low/mid-lvl wave from the east. Output statistics 50 percent POPs or
more along I-4 north and west. However will truncate at 40 percent
at this point until 12Z sounding. Hot again with max temperatures in
the M90s and heat indices 100-105 degrees. Min temps generally in
the M70s except U70s immediate coast.

Early next week...An weakening easterly wave from the Bahamas to
Cuba will be moving across the Fl Straits early Sun while becoming
increasingly sheared. The feature should bring some moisture to
the central and southern portion of the peninsula during Sun and
in light of weakening upr ridge locally rain chcs will be higher
than past days. Current PoP cvrg is higher roughly south of metro
Orlando to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Cst. Isold PoP inland
through Sun evening to be followed by drying as Bermuda ridging
begins to re-establish locally by Mon. Inland counties will see
best rain chcs early in the week (25 to 35 pct) and lesser cvg
along cst as diurnally forced convection ascd with boundary
collision will be the main mechanism.

Extended...A weak to modest wrn Atlc (Bermuda) sfc ridge wl remain
situated near central FL to the eastern Gulf throughout much of
next week. A northward extension of moisture ascd somewhat with
invest area AL97 racing quickly wwd across the Carib looks to
affect part of the area Tue and sct PoP wl be used areawide. More
importantly, absence of ridging aloft combining with suitable low
to mid level moisture and light gradient flow will lead to sct
diurnal boundary forced convection. Inland locations should be
most favored for daily pcpn and cumulative rainfall during the
period due to rather light steering level winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR except near afternoon VCTS...especially for interior sites
after 19Z. Otherwise...may see some very shallow ground mist/fog
in the MLB-VRB-FPR corridor again 10Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...SE/S flow will persist as storms occur mainly over
the mainland courtesy of the orientation/location of the Atlantic
ridge axis across Central Florida. Onshore flow will be reinforced
during the afternoon by the sea breeze. Winds 10 knots or less with
seas 2 feet or less today. Overnight SE/S flow increases just a bit
to 10-15 knots and local seas up to 3 feet well offshore. Slight
chance of showers and storms after midnight for the waters south of
the Cape with the approach of the northern extent of a low/mid-level
wave coming in from the east for Sun.

A long period of favorable conditions are forecast for the marine
area during the work week due to presence of high pressure in
proximity to the waters. Winds generally 10 kt or less and seas
around 2 ft nearshore and around 2 to 4 feet beyond the immediate
coast are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  92  76 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  94  75  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
MLB  91  76  90  77 /  20  20  30  10
VRB  92  74  89  72 /  20  20  40  10
LEE  94  77  95  77 /  40  20  30  20
SFB  94  76  94  76 /  30  20  20  20
ORL  94  76  93  76 /  30  20  30  20
FPR  92  74  89  73 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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