Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS62 KMLB 281959
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Moist easterly flow will continue to bring scattered
showers and isolated storms off the Atlc. So have kept 30 PoP
Volusia coast to 50 PoP Martin county. The diurnal convection over
the interior will diminish with sunset but will keep a small 20
PoP for interior counties overnight for showers. Locally heavy
rain is the primary threat especially along the Treasure coast
which has been the preferred location for precip the last few
days.

Monday-Thursday (modified)...By sunrise Monday, the tropical wave
axis (Invest 99L) will extend from the lower keys to the NW
Bahamas. Low pressure is forecast to form well west of KEYW-KAPF
and track WNW out to about 88W through TUE night, before gradually
turning north on WED and NNE THU, moving onshore THU night
somewhere near the Big Bend region. There is less agreement
regarding intensity but this system will need to be watched due to
an extended period over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

While uncertainty still exists as to the exact strength and track
of the low, there is greater confidence for an influx of very
high (2.1" to 2.5") PWAT air to spread northward across ECFL
Tuesday-Thursday. Regardless of whether or not convection
directly associated with the low remains off to the west through
the period, enhancement of the diurnal convective pattern seems
quite likely, and high POPs remain in order. Given slightly slower
trend of moisture advection, tweaked numbers down to 50/north to
70/south for Monday, then up to 70-80 Tuesday, 60-70 Wednesday and
60 on Thursday. Depending on how the low evolves, may need to
address flooding potential for parts of the area, or if there may
be some enhanced risk for wind gusts/squalls/tornadoes.

Friday-Sunday (previous)...Extended forecast will continue to
favor the ECMWF solution, which shows faster departure of the low
through late Friday /early Saturday, which should allow for
gradual mean drying of the air mass. However, residual SW flow
remains in the low`s wake as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds westward
into south FL, which should favor the central and eastern
peninsula for at least climatological chances of diurnal
convection. Temps should rise back to and then slightly above
normal given the expected wind regime.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fast moving showers in most easterly flow will require prolonged
VCSH for coastal terminals through Mon. Brief MVFR reductions in
cig/vsby possible but does not warrant a TEMPO. Coverage should
decrease over the interior after sunset so will keep interior
terminals VFR with no precip overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast wind flow to start the week will veer to south and then
southwest by Wednesday-Thursday given northward track of the
anticipated low pressure area to our west. None of the models
tighten the gradient appreciably over the adjacent Atlc until
after the flow becomes offshore/SW. Consequently, the combination
of wind chop and long period swell keep seas AOB 5FT through the
period.

Less then favorable boating conditions will be accompanied by an
increasing coverage of rain/storms and attendant threat for locally
higher winds and seas in gusty storms or squalls.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  89  77  87 /  30  50  40  60
MCO  75  91  77  89 /  20  50  30  70
MLB  79  89  77  88 /  30  60  40  70
VRB  77  87  77  87 /  40  60  50  80
LEE  75  92  77  89 /  20  50  30  70
SFB  75  91  77  90 /  20  50  30  70
ORL  76  91  77  89 /  20  50  30  70
FPR  77  88  77  87 /  40  60  50  80

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Volkmer



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.