Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 241824
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-THROUGH SUN...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DRY SLOT THAT
WAS INFLUENCING CENTRAL FLORIDA/S WEATHER WEDNESDAY QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOISTURE AIR MASS FROM THE
SOUTH. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND AHEAD OF
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A DEEP WARM MOIST
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE BY AN HOUR OR
TWO IN NORTH BREVARD AND COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES.  WHERE THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SET
UP EARLY AND PUSH INLAND QUICKER AND FURTHER FROM SOUTH BREVARD
COUNTY TO MARTIN COUNTY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. DIURNAL
CONVECTION PATTERN DEPENDENT ON DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT WILL TRAVEL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE HAS PUSHED ACROSS AND IS HEADING INLAND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. SCATTERED MID AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD MORE TIME TO WARM UP AND
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR LOW 90S AND THE UPPER 80S AND AROUND
90 AT THE INTERIOR. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND KEEPS A DEEPER
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION. GFS PW VALUES SHOW SOME DRYING
OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE NORTHERN
AREAS TUES AND WED. THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 30-50 PERCENT.

WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EITHER NOT DEVELOPING OR REMAINING NEAR THE
COAST FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW...MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.



&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 19Z-21Z THEN SCATTERED
STORMS TIL 24Z. TEMPO MAINLY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS VICINITY
STORMS KDED-KISM-KOBE. ISOLATED MVFR COASTAL KOMN-KVRV-KFPR.
VFR AFTER 04Z.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...BUOY 009 AT 20NM AND THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM
OFF THE COAST BEEN RECORDING 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.  BUOY 009 WAS
RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BUOY 009 AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST MID AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE FORMS...COMES ASHORE AND PUSHES INLAND SLOWLY AGAINST THE
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDFLOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO SLOW MOVING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. NEARSHORE WATERS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH THEN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL. BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES...INDIAN RIVER AND MOSQUITO
LAGOONS...THE HALIFAX RIVER SYSTEM AND NEARSHORE WATERS NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE TO THE WEST FROM MID AFTERNOON ON FOR ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO
THE WEST AND DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  75  93 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  76  94  76  94 /  30  50  20  50
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  20  50
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  40
LEE  76  94  77  95 /  30  50  20  50
SFB  77  94  77  94 /  30  50  20  50
ORL  77  94  78  95 /  30  50  20  50
FPR  75  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
PUBLIC SERVICE...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER




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