Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 281600 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN... TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 70S IN SOME
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. IN THESE AREAS CLOUDS COULD LINGER FOR
PART OR MUCH OF THE AFTN SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. IF
BREAKS HAPPEN IN THE CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TODAY. ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATES OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 18-20Z PRIMARILY FROM AROUND KLAW UP THROUGH KOKC/KOUN/KPNC.
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS DURING THE
DAY BUT FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LAST WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...WE EXPECT A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INCREASING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ALIGNED WITH MIDLEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
PROGD TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS FROM KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
TONIGHT AND COULD ENHANCE LIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IN A NUTSHELL...POPS WERE INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAIN AXIS FOR HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO A REGION FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...MID-LEVEL TEMPS
WARM AND THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE EVOLUTION OF OBSERVED
LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER AT LEAST EASTERN HALF OF
CWA NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT SLOW PASSING S/WV INTERACTS WITH
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND STAYS ANCHORED NEARBY. ECM MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSING S/WV AND KEEPS UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST. WE
WILL SIDE WITH ECM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  70  93  69 /  40  40  10   0
HOBART OK         90  70  95  69 /  40  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  74  98  73 /  20  30  10  10
GAGE OK           92  65  91  63 /  30  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  69  90  67 /  60  40  10  10
DURANT OK         95  73  93  71 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/17


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