Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 301731
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...AXIS OF HIGH PWS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS COAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WHICH IS GENERALLY EAST OF A 7H LOW.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK/MODERATE WAA.
MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING AT MID-LEVEL THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FA. THIS MAY SHIFT THE CURRENT AREA OF
RAIN TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL RUN UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY FOR COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 81.

ON THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AS THE 7H TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS MAY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  78  65  84 /  90  30  10  10
HOBART OK         66  81  64  86 /  70  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  83  67  88 /  50  20  10  10
GAGE OK           62  81  62  85 /  40  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     64  80  62  84 /  70  20   0  10
DURANT OK         66  78  66  83 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ012-013-
     016>020-022>032-040-042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>011-
     014-015.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/14


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