354
FXUS64 KOUN 121957
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

One round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid-
level jet streak embedded in the subtropical jet continues to move
to the east this afternoon across southern into eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also developing in the
wake of this complex across northwest into west central Oklahoma
in association with an approaching mid/upper-level low. Effective
bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and elevated instability of ~500 to
1000 J/kg will favor hail with the most intense thunderstorms.

These showers and thunderstorms will continue develop tonight as
a mid/upper-level low moves eastward across Kansas in tandem with
a strengthening low-level jet. The potential hazards are hail and
heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. The most
likely area the receive the heaviest rainfall overnight is across
the northern half of Oklahoma. HREF guidance indicates that
isolated locations may see 2" of rainfall or more (using the
ensemble maximum as a proxy for locally higher amounts).

By tomorrow morning, a northwest wind shift will advance to the
southeast as the upper-level moves eastward. Any ongoing
thunderstorms would move southward into central into east central
Oklahoma with the wind shift. Eventually, the chance of storms
will move into southeast Oklahoma by Monday afternoon as the wind
shift continues to advance to the southeast. Instability and shear
will remain favorable for low-end severe potential, which will
include the potential for hail and gusty winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

By Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level low
moves toward the Midwest. Dry conditions are expected across
Oklahoma and north Texas.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, another trough will approach the
Southern Plains with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The
system has trended slower, so the chance for rain will persist
through at least Friday morning. While vertical wind shear appears
sufficient for severe weather, the amount of instability remains
uncertain as widespread convection may temper its magnitude. Heavy
rainfall/localized flooding may also be a hazard given the slow
exit of the system.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move to the
east-northeast this afternoon. Brief reduction in visibility to
MVFR or IFR flight conditions are possible in association with
the heaviest rainfall.

MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely this evening into the overnight
hours as stratus develops across the area. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop during the
evening hours with the highest probability of impact across the
northern half of Oklahoma (KWWR/KSWO/KPNC); however, impacts may
occur as far south as KCSM to KOKC/KOUN.

Winds will gradually shift to the west and northwest late in the
TAF period. As this occurs, ceilings should begin to transition
toward VFR.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  75  57  79 /  80  40  10   0
Hobart OK         59  77  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  80  57  82 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           53  73  50  84 /  70  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  73  56  78 / 100  70  20  10
Durant OK         63  79  60  82 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10