Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230002
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
602 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Light wind and VFR conditions will persist through the daytime
Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An amplified upper flow pattern is in place with significantly
positive 500 hPa height anomalies across the western third of the
country. We`re in a northwesterly flow regime on the eastern edge
of the ridge with some cirrus being observed. Tranquil weather
will continue for the next several days.

We will trend toward above normal temperatures over the next few
days. Downsloping southwesterly low-level flow is expected to
support temperatures up to around 10 degrees above mid/late
November normal for Thanksgiving day, and around 15 degrees above
normal on Friday. A weak front will bring slightly cooler
temperatures Saturday, but another plume of
downsloped/adiabatically warmed air will move overhead Monday
supporting much above normal temperatures. In collaboration with
surrounding offices, we have adjusted temperatures above blends
and closer to the warmer statistical guidance Thursday through
Monday (especially Monday).

Medium range models are struggling with timing of a more
substantial trough and associated cold front early next week, but
all generally agree that frontal passage won`t be until Monday
night at the earliest. Tuesday, given differences in frontal
timing, we have not deviated from the blend for now. Blends offer
a compromise between the cooler GFS/GEFS and warmer ECMWF/EPS.
Moisture return will be modest given persistent northwesterly flow
and anomalously low PWATs all the way into the western Gulf. We
have kept low precipitation probabilities across the southeast,
but may need to adjust timing given the uncertainty in model
guidance.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...
Two periods of elevated fire weather conditions may occur over
the next week.

1.) Friday, as southwesterly winds strengthen but northward
movement of more substantial moisture lags. At this time, wind
magnitude looks insufficient for more than elevated conditions at
worst, and the best wind/RH combination will be over southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

2.) Monday, as stronger southwest winds and warmer temperatures
arrive, but only a modest surge of low level moisture should
temper concerns somewhat across central Oklahoma. The best
alignment of RH/wind will be over western Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

After a period of good RH recovery, including drizzle/fog last
week, drier conditions resulted in much higher ERC values this
weekend. ERC values remain near 75th percentile which will
probably support more initial attack activity than seen
previously when values were lower.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  68  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         35  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  34  69  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           37  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     32  68  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         32  64  43  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/09/15



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