Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 281941
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Some afternoon diurnal showers have started. Instability and moisture
are present to support continued convection through about sunset,
though without any appreciable shear not expecting any kind of
organized storms.

Main forecast challenge is an MCS coming south out of Kansas late
tonight. Models are just now starting to come into some agreement on
the details of this system, with storms entering Oklahoma between
04Z and 06Z and persisting till about I-40. The HRRR is an outlier,
keeping the MCS out of Oklahoma till about 08Z, and the GFS is an
outlier in persisting convection all the way to the Red River. As
the system makes its way south, increasing CIN should gradually
decrease severe potential, but, especially earlier on, instability
(1000-1500 joules) and bulk shear (up to 45 knots) will be enough to
support some severe wind gusts.

Instability and moisture will remain in place tomorrow, possibly
supporting some afternoon diurnal convection again. Part of this
will depend on tonight`s MCS, how much it disrupts the atmosphere
and whatever boundaries it leaves behind. Given the uncertainty in
so many variables, confined POPs to 30 percent or less.

Models continue to hint at the possibility of another MCS tomorrow
night, but details remain sketchy. Again, a lot will depend on the
mesoscale features that will be affected by tonight`s system.

By Sunday, rain chances will be mostly diminished as the ridge
builds back in and temperatures near 100 return to the area.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  88  71  91 /  50  30  40  30
Hobart OK         70  90  72  96 /  50  30  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  95  74  98 /  30  20  20  20
Gage OK           67  87  68  95 /  60  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     69  87  70  91 /  60  30  40  30
Durant OK         72  93  74  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/14


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.