Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 282310
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARGINAL LLWS AT BOTH PNC/LAW WHERE LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT SFC WIND SPEEDS LOWER.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND RH FALLS BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE
NORTHWEST... THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELAITVELY LOW IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE-RELATED HEADLINES. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND BRINGS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. IN COORDINATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES... HAVE GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY LINGER AND HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
ON MONDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT... AND TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION MIXED IN... BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW PROBABILITIES AND THE
LOW QPF... BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS TO MAKE LOOK FOR ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TO MORE OF A CONSENSUSWITH
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK... THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES TO COMPLICATE THE EXTENDED PERIODS... MAINLY THE
TIMING OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HOLDS OFF THE FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ECMWF RECOVERSTEMPERATURES
NICELY ON THURSDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION ON WEDNESDAY AND BLENDED SOMEWHAT
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  46  70  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         43  71  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  74  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           38  77  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     42  69  42  56 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         50  72  57  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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