Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 261709 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL RELAX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON... CALMING AND BECOMING MORE
N/NERLY OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD... REMAINING CALM... WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

JTK

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING. LIKELIHOOD IS LOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION SO PUT A MENTION OF ISO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN WX
GRIDS WITH AROUND A 10 PERCENT POP.

WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AFTER MONDAY. MODELS SHOW MAJOR
INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH OTHER. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONT TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE ARE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PATH/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE
GFS FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC/INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHATEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM... MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE FA WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  29  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         56  30  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  32  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           53  26  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     51  24  50  37 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         60  33  57  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/04/04



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